TODAYonline

Will changes to ERP reap desired results?

System more in tune with road conditions should address existing bottlenecks

Leong Wee Keat
weekeat@mediacorp.com.sg
— Additional reporting by Ng Jing Yng

THE pain to their pockets may have some drivers griping about the biggest overhaul of the Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system in a decade, but analysts agree that another source of their frustration will likely be reduced: Traffic crawls on roads under the scheme.

From July, ERP charges or increases will kick in when more than 15 per cent of vehicles fall below optimal threshold speeds, while rates at new gantries will start from at least $2 and increments will be by $1 instead of 50 cents.

What all this means is that someone driving from Ang Mo Kio to the city via the Central Expressway between 8.30am and 9am could soon be paying $10 in ERP fees — should traffic conditions worsen and warrant a $1 hike.

However, ERP hikes and extensions have, in the past, raised a chorus of complaints from drivers about having to pay more, yet still experiencing congestion or "stop-start" traffic on those priced roads. Transport Minister Raymond Lim acknowledged as much yesterday.

"We often hear feedback that the ERP has not helped to ease congestion on the highest demand roads like the Central Expressway beyond a temporary respite; that the ERP rate increases have little impact on travel behaviour," he said.

"There is some truth in this."

But this "critical" review of the ERP system, which has changed little since 1998, aims to ensure motorists see the benefits of paying.

For one, traffic conditions will be determined based on whether 85 per cent of motorists enjoy speeds above the optimal threshold — instead of simply averaging out travelling speeds, which can lead to a "disconnect" with reality.

For example, Mr Lim said, though the average travelling speed on the Pan Island Expressway from 7.30am to 8am was above 45kmh early this month, nearly four in 10 motorists were actually moving below that speed.

Another key change: Bigger rate increments. Mr Lim noted feedback that the current 50-cent increment has "only a temporary impact on driving behaviour". There were nine rate changes in 2006, but 25 were needed last year.

Increasing ERP charges would make the system more effective so drivers see a "visible improvement" in traffic flows, he added.

Researcher Paul Barter of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, who has written papers on the ERP system, agreed this could work.

"Motorists that keep driving at peak times on these roads will pay more for higher, more reliable speeds than now, and more places will qualify for gantries sooner. But at least it should become much less common for traffic to slow down or stop on the roads that have ERP," said the assistant professor.

Still, National University of Singapore transport researcher Han Songguang wondered how steep ERP rates would have to get before drivers consider switching to public transport. "I don't think drivers would pay $70,000 for a car and then want to leave it at home."

Sales manager Felix Lim, 31, who uses his car to meet his clients, said: "I don't think I am going to stop using my car or avoid travelling on priced roads as I do not really have a choice."

But accountant G T Kee, 54, who travels into the Central Business District several times a week for work, thought the changes fair as it would "deter those not essentially in need of that route and get them to use another route instead".