Occupy HK’s end start of ‘permanent political crisis’

HONG KONG — While Occupy Central ended formally on Thursday, analysts predicted that this was just the beginning of permanent political unrest in the Chinese territory. When the police moved to clear the barricades, protest leaders strung a banner across their front lines with a parting message: “It is just the beginning.”

While protesters failed to wrest concessions from Beijing on their demands for open elections in 2017, students, politicians and analysts say the city is not the same. The rallies — which saw the first use of tear gas in Hong Kong in almost a decade — triggered an awakening across a generation of young people who are now willing to risk recrimination by publicly calling for political change.

“It definitely isn’t the end of Hong Kong’s democratic movement,” said Mr Lester Shum, a leader of the Hong Kong Federation of Students. “It is unrealistic to think a single movement can change everything. Real civil disobedience is long term.”

The protests posed the biggest challenge to China’s authority since the end of British rule in 1997, deepening tensions between those who welcome or at least tolerate Chinese influence and those who oppose it.

The protests sent a clear message to Beijing that it cannot exert total control over Hong Kong, even if the move towards full democracy takes decades.

“It is going to be a different world, a world of permanent political crisis,” said Mr Hung Ho-fung, an Associate Professor of sociology at Johns Hopkins University who studies China and Hong Kong.

Mr Ma Ngok, Associate Professor of political science at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, predicted that there will be more confrontations. “The crisis of governance should deepen, because the government will be faced with a movement of non-cooperation”.

The Hong Kong Federation of Students has emerged as the most popular political force in the city, based on a poll by the University of Hong Kong in October. Backing for the five main political parties, both pro-government and pro-democracy groups, slipped to record lows.

The demonstrations had limited economic impact. Retail sales gained in September and October, though at a slower pace than in previous years.

The protests have taken a toll on families and friends, and sapped confidence in the police and government.

“Hong Kong has been torn apart by this Umbrella Movement,” said Mr Alan Leong from the Civic Party. “We are polarised now. You feel so uncomfortable to walk the streets, to travel on the metro. People would walk up to you and scold you in your face, saying you are dogs and traitors. What we now experience in Hong Kong is a much lesser version of the Chinese Cultural Revolution.” BLOOMBERG