As power wanes, Kuomintang struggles to hang on in Taiwan

TAIPEI — The party once led China, helping to vanquish Japan in World War II. Defeated by Mao Zedong’s Communists, it fled to Taiwan, where it imposed martial law for decades before grudgingly yielding to popular demands for democracy.

But now the days of power and wealth are gone for the Chinese Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, as it struggles to stay relevant in Taiwan politics — a situation that has implications for Beijing and Washington.

After a disastrous performance in last year’s general election, the Kuomintang, also known as the KMT, lost control of the presidency for the second time since Taiwan’s presidential elections began in 1996. For the first time, it is a minority party in the island’s legislature.

“The KMT is looking for its footing in a new environment,” said Mr Nathan Batto, assistant research fellow at Academia Sinica and an expert on Taiwan’s elections. How it will adapt to challenges on several fronts is still an open question.

The Kuomintang’s base is made up of those who think of themselves “as Chinese in some way”, said Mr Batto. That base, however, is now only 20 to 40 per cent of voters. Corporations seeking access to the Chinese market are an additional pillar of support — especially financial.

The Kuomintang is under investigation regarding public and private assets it seized after arriving in Taiwan seven decades ago. In the 1990s, KMT assets totalled US$2.9 billion (S$4 billion), according to party data. Its assets now frozen, it has recently cut staff from 800 to under 400 because of insufficient funds.

Watching the Kuomintang drama is China, which claims Taiwan and threatens to attack if it officially acknowledges its functional independence.

Chinese observers differ in their views on the state of the Kuomintang, Beijing’s preferred dialogue partner in Taiwan.

“The Kuomintang can’t be lifted up again,” said Mr Wang Hongguang, a retired People’s Liberation Army (PLA) lieutenant-general, at a conference in China last December. “It is being marginalised.”

Mr Wang, a former deputy commander of the PLA Nanjing Military Area Command responsible for deployment in an invasion of Taiwan, predicted that war between China and Taiwan would begin about 2020. He said China would take Taiwan “in one stroke”.

Mr Ni Yongjie, deputy head of the Shanghai Institute of Taiwan Studies, said in a telephone interview that the future of the Kuomintang was uncertain, while noting incorrect predictions that the now-governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was doomed after losing the presidency in 2008.

“It’s just too early to draw any conclusions,” said Mr Ni, adding that the Chinese government has “strategic patience” for a long-term policy of peaceful unification.

China’s approach to Taiwan is two-pronged, wrote Ms Jessica Drun, a fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research in Washington, in an email.

“Beijing aims to demonstrate to the Taiwan electorate that the KMT is the party best-suited in managing cross-strait relations, while at the same time maintaining informal channels of communication with the DPP and third parties in order to remain abreast of their views and strategic thinking,” wrote Ms Drun.

The cornerstone of relations between the Kuomintang and China is the 1992 Consensus.

The consensus is named for discussions in Hong Kong that year, in which both sides were said to have agreed to a One China policy, with each side interpreting it differently.

China cut off official communication with Taiwan after President Tsai Ing-wen refused to bow to its demand that she recognise the 1992 Consensus in her inauguration speech last May.

Beijing has increased military drills in Taiwan’s vicinity, including the first passage of its lone aircraft carrier through the Taiwan Strait.

China’s reaction to Ms Tsai’s pivot away from her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou’s close ties to Beijing in favour of closer relations with Washington and Tokyo is being used as a line of attack by the Kuomintang.

That opportunity may have been diminished by a new blow to the Kuomintang’s image: The March 14 indictment of Mr Ma over a wiretapping case connected to his long-running rivalry with the veteran Kuomintang legislator Wang Jin-pyng.

He faces up to three years in prison if convicted.

Mr Wang, one of the Kuomintang’s more popular members, said Ms Tsai’s administration had mishandled relations with China.

“It won’t go as far as war breaking out, but there’s no contact” between the two sides, said Mr Wang. In dealings with China, he said, Taiwan should “maintain a certain degree of mutual contact, maintain a certain degree of friendship — this is the path of the KMT”.

The Kuomintang chairwoman, Ms Hung Hsiu-chu, met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last November, continuing her party’s talks with its erstwhile adversary. Ms Hung said that she and Mr Xi sought peaceful cross-strait development, while opposing Taiwan’s independence.

Cross-strait relations would be stable under this framework, she said, adding that Taiwan could negotiate a peace agreement with China.

“Although we’re not at war, a hostile relationship still exists (across the strait),” said Ms Hung.

To reach such an agreement would require the Kuomintang to return to power in 2020. This is an unlikely prospect, despite President Tsai’s current low approval ratings, unless the party leadership charts a new path.

It will elect its party leader on May 20, with five candidates intending to challenge Ms Hung. In recent weeks, Mr Wu Den-yih, the former vice-president, has emerged as the strongest of those.

“Nobody is saying ‘Here is the direction I want to lead our country. Give me power, I want to lead our society to a better place’,” said Mr Batto of the challengers; while Ms Hung is offering an even more Chinese nationalist vision — more extreme than the 1992 Consensus.

“The ’92 Consensus fell apart,” he said. “You can’t just put Humpty Dumpty back together again.”

Some younger Kuomintang members seeking to increase their party’s low appeal to Taiwan’s youth are wary of embracing China too closely.

Mr Hsu Yu-jen, 38, a first-time legislator, acknowledged the challenge. “You can’t get too close, and you have to maintain a friendly distance,” he said. THE NEW YORK TIMES