Troubled times ahead for Taiwan?

The political contest between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for the presidential and legislative elections to be held next week dominated Taiwan’s 2015. Since 2008, President Ma Ying-jeou’s China-friendly policies have increasingly linked Taiwan’s economic well-being and socio-political concerns to the question of whether further economic integration is beneficial to Taiwan and, more broadly, the notion of it being an independent sovereign state.

Despite a major political realignment in 2014 — which saw the KMT suffer its worse electoral results in the “nine-in-one local elections” and mass demonstrations rejecting closer ties to China — the ruling party did little to adjust. Last year, a majority of Taiwanese continued to reject policies that were viewed as coercing the island’s political and national identity to suit the Chinese Communist Party.

In July, echoing the concerns of the March 2014 Sunflower Movement, hundreds of students and their supporters staged a week-long sit-in at the Education Ministry. The protesters demanded the resignation of the minister and the reversal of government-backed revisions to the island’s school curriculum and textbooks. These revisions included altering the phrase “Japanese rule” to “Japanese colonial rule”, and referring to Chiang Kai-shek’s military dictatorship as a “glorious retrocession”.

The protesters claimed that the changes were designed to indoctrinate young Taiwanese to support unification with China, degrade the influence of Japan in Taiwan’s modernisation and purposely ignore the brutality of Chiang’s regime.

But despite continuing backlash, the KMT chose a conservative pro-China presidential candidate, Ms Hung Hsiu-chu. She said the KMT principle of “one China, different interpretations” should be revised to “one China, same interpretation”. She controversially advocated for the need to reach a peace accord with China — that is, unification as opposed to maintaining the status quo. Ms Hung also compared Taiwanese activists to members of former Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s Red Guards.

Inevitably, polling for the KMT and Ms Hung plummeted to a 15.5 per cent approval rating — even below that of a minor party candidate, the People First Party’s James Soong. After calls for her to quit the presidential race, including from within her own party, Ms Hung was finally replaced in October with the more moderate Eric Chu.

On the back of the mistakes of Mr Ma’s administration, the DPP led by Ms Tsai Ing-wen has made major inroads. In her failed 2012 presidential bid, Ms Tsai was criticised for her cross-strait policy due to fears it would alienate both mainland China and the United States. In response, Ms Tsai adopted a pragmatic attitude towards keeping the current pace of China–Taiwan relations — a far cry from the former DPP President Chen Shui-bian’s vocal calls for de jure independence. Ms Tsai’s campaign success is arguably mostly due to the KMT’s failings.

The KMT has fatally linked Taiwan’s future too closely to that of China’s and failed to consider the Taiwanese people’s desire and right for self-determination.

Answering to previous criticism that she was part of the political elite and had little understanding of ordinary citizens’ and minorities’ concerns, Ms Tsai has also outlined significant social and judicial reforms. These policies address key issues such as inter-generational disparity, the lack of government transparency, constitutional changes to the legislature and judiciary, reconciliation with Taiwan’s indigenous population and lessening the ideological divide between the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green political coalitions. Interestingly, her running mate, Mr Chen Chien-jen, is a Catholic — one of less than 5 per cent of Taiwanese who identify as Christian.

However, such reforms are easier said than done. Next week’s battle for control of the legislature will determine whether Ms Tsai’s reforms can be brought to fruition.

And any presidential hopeful would have to face the more long-term problem of how to inject new energy into Taiwan’s stagnated economy.

Taiwan’s annual gross domestic product growth for 2015 to 2019 is predicted to be just 2 per cent. Both the KMT and DPP are aware of the challenges of weakening external demands for Taiwan’s exports and its struggling domestic market. Although Taiwan’s export-driven market would benefit from cuts in tariffs in China, what it needs most is an end to its political isolation. Taiwan is unable to sign other bilateral agreements or participate in international organisations without offending China.

In November, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Ma in Singapore in the first-ever meeting between the leaders of the two sides. While this meeting was significant in signalling a new Chinese approach to managing cross-strait relations, two key dynamics remain entrenched that will continue to hamper changes to the cross-strait status quo.

First, Taiwan’s socio-political trends indicate that more and more people identify as solely Taiwanese. Any administration now faces a growing civil society and youth movement who will bring with them a different attitude to cross-strait relations. It will be increasingly difficult for any Taiwanese leader to balance the growing desire of most Taiwanese to become independent with that of maintaining the cross-strait status quo.

Second, the US remains committed to its (informal) security guarantee of Taiwan, underscored by Washington’s new US$1.8 billion (S$2.6 billion) arms deal announced recently. The geostrategic location of Taiwan is as significant to China as it is to the US. For ideological reasons, any US government would face enormous pressure to defend democratic Taiwan against an authoritarian China — not doing so would be a political nightmare.

Regardless of the outcome of the elections, how Taiwan manages these ongoing challenges will determine the islands’s prospects this year and beyond. EAST ASIA FORUM

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Sheryn Lee is an Associate Lecturer in Security Studies at the Department of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Macquarie University.