Tsai-Trump phone call not a diplomatic victory for Taipei, say analysts

SINGAPORE — While Taiwanese may cheer United States President-elect Donald Trump’s phone conversation with President Tsai Ing-Wen, the development does not amount to a diplomatic victory for Taipei, which will continue to struggle to raise its international profile against China’s wishes, said Chinese experts interviewed by TODAY.

“The reception across Taiwan, among ordinary Taiwanese, is one of pride to have been recognised, and so far few are those who believe that this was a mistake,” said Mr J Michael Cole, a Taipei-based research fellow who has worked at a think-tank set up by Ms Tsai.

“This is symbolic, certainly, but far too small to be regarded as a diplomatic victory. What happens next is what will determine whether Taiwan gets the space it needs/deserves.”

In Taiwan — rendered nearly invisible in global affairs by decades of accommodation to Chinese pressure — the reaction to the call between Ms Tsai and Mr Trump late last week has been broadly positive, if tinged with caution.

“I think that for the majority of Taiwanese people, this is the happiest thing that’s happened to us since 1978, before the US broke off diplomatic relations,” Mr Hsieh Jin-ho, a publisher and commentator, said.

The US formally recognised the People’s Republic of China in 1979, abrogating its ties with Taiwan under the One China policy.

Mr Hsieh added that in general, Taiwanese had two different takeaways from the call.

“One conclusion is that Taiwan needs to seize this opportunity in order to upgrade to fuller relations with the US and expand its international friendly relations,” he said. “Another group of people fear that China’s continually increasing pressure will grow even larger” and threaten Taiwan’s future.

Ms Tsai took office in May with a mandate to reduce Taiwan’s economic reliance and close political ties with Beijing. China claims Taiwan as its territory and threatens to use force if Taipei officially acknowledges its de facto sovereignty. At her inauguration, Ms Tsai said she wanted to improve relations with China, while also deepening ties with the US and Japan.

Professor Jin Canrong, an associate dean of the Renmin University’s School of International Studies in Beijing added that Mr Trump’s phone call might earn Ms Tsai plaudits for now, but it will be detrimental to Taiwan’s development in the long run.

This is because “Taiwan’s destiny is much more intertwined with the mainland than the US, especially economically”.

Analysts added that Taipei faces an uphill task in walking a tightrope of wanting a more visible diplomatic presence without antagonising Beijing.

“That’s always a challenge, made all the more difficult by the fact that Beijing keeps moving the goal posts. Every move has to be assessed carefully, weighing the pros and cons of doing something,” said Mr Cole, who is a Taiwan-based senior non-resident fellow at the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute.

He added that if there is still some communication between Taipei and Beijing, surprises can also be limited and the negative reactions mitigated.

“President Tsai has to weigh the advantages domestically — where as a democratically elected leader, she faces pressure — against the possible repercussions internationally,” he said.

“It would be easier for her to do so if she gets proper backing from the US. That remains to be seen.”

Dr Wu Shang-Su, a research fellow with the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, noted that it is “unlikely that Trump could upset the current framework defining US-China ties that are underpinned by the three joint communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act”.

The three joint communiques are statements issued by the US and Chinese governments from 1972 to 1982 which helped normalise ties between the two nations and which continue to regulate dialogue between them.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act provides the legal basis for the de facto ties between Washington and Taipei, and it enshrines American commitment to help Taiwan maintain its defensive capabilities.

“The likely trajectory of US-Taiwan ties is likely to be good, but there are too many factors at play for definite conclusions to be made at this stage,” said Dr Wu.

Mr Cole added: “For all his idiosyncratic personality, Trump will not operate in a vacuum. He will face tremendous institutional pressures and will not be able to dictate every move.

“Usually, this means that a president’s policies will, by force of things, gradually move towards the centre, which means (the maintenance of) long-standing policies.” WITH AGENCIES