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Wary Beijing keeping a close eye on Taiwan polls

TAIPEI — Beijing is watching today’s Taiwan local elections closely for signs that the ruling pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) party is losing its political grip, amid opinion polls showing unfavourable odds for the party, analysts said.

Taipei mayoral candidate Ko Wen-je (second from left) posing for pictures with supporters during an electoral campaign visit to a market ahead of local elections in Taipei on Nov 28, 2014. Photo: Reuters

Taipei mayoral candidate Ko Wen-je (second from left) posing for pictures with supporters during an electoral campaign visit to a market ahead of local elections in Taipei on Nov 28, 2014. Photo: Reuters

TAIPEI — Beijing is watching today’s Taiwan local elections closely for signs that the ruling pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) party is losing its political grip, amid opinion polls showing unfavourable odds for the party, analysts said.

The vote is taking place as media reports said the KMT had mobilised thousands of Taiwanese businessmen to return to the island to vote and Chinese tourists were flocking to Taiwan to catch democracy in action.

The election for city mayors and other municipal posts will be the first chance for residents of the island to make their views about the party’s Chinese-friendly stance known since March, when thousands of young people occupied Parliament in an unprecedented protest against a planned trade pact calling for closer ties with Beijing.

Taiwan and China have been ruled separately since the communists won China’s civil war in 1949. China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force to ensure unification.

Under President Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan has sought to improve economic ties with China to boost the country’s slowing economic growth.

The vote is also taking place as confidence in the KMT has been worn away this year by a food safety scare from a tainted oil scandal, missteps in education reform, and perceptions of class and income inequality.

Opinion polls show the KMT in tight races against the opposition Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei and Taichung, another KMT stronghold in central Taiwan.

Analysts said that should the KMT lose major seats in the local elections and fail to regain some ground, it could cost them success at the upcoming 2016 national elections.

“That could have a big effect on cross-strait relations, since Beijing’s and Taiwan’s new leaders would have to figure out first if they can trust each other,” Dr Chang Ya-chung of National Taiwan University told The Wall Street Journal.

The impact of closer economic ties on the mood of Taiwanese voters will also be closely watched, said Mr Li Zhenguang, a politics professor at the Beijing Union University’s Institute of Taiwan Studies. “It’s undeniable that cross-strait economic integration has created major political pressure on some parties and resulted in a backlash, because such integration will ultimately kill off prospects for Taiwan independence,” he told the Journal.

Amid the close battle for votes, the KMT has tried to shore up support by mobilising some of the 700,000 mainland-based Taiwanese businessmen to return to the island to vote, the South China Morning Post reported.

Mr Ho Hsi-hao, former head of the Taiwanese Businessmen Association in southern Fujian province’s Zhangzhou city told the paper KMT vice-chairman John Chiang Hsiao-yen held a rally attended by some 2,000 people in Dongguan this week to garner support for the KMT’s Taipei mayoral hopeful Sean Lien.

Chinese leaders, however, are not the only ones watching the elections closely. Media reports said the polls — with a carnival-like atmosphere of shows, food and giveaways — have attracted tourists from mainland China.

Mr Ma was quoted telling Hong Kong’s Apple Daily that the tourists are drawn to Taiwan “because there are no such lively elections in the mainland”.

Those in China’s local posts are generally elected by the People’s Congress. Agencies

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