India taps ASEAN to spur development in rustic north-east

I was part of an Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states media delegation that recently visited India at the invitation of its Ministry of External Affairs’ (MEA) to attend the Delhi Dialogue VII, a forum to chart the way forward for ASEAN-India cooperation. The ASEAN journalists also visited the north-eastern states of Assam and Meghalaya to better understand their developmental potential.

What struck me was how the Indian government has foregrounded ASEAN-India relations as the core of its Act East foreign-policy framework, with particular emphasis on how the north-eastern states can serve as a key node in ASEAN’s initiative to boost connectivity. India is keen to attract ASEAN foreign direct investment, especially in the transport sector, and to link up by road the north-eastern provinces with neighbouring Myanmar and Thailand.

This allows New Delhi to kill two birds with one stone: Match its rhetoric of engaging ASEAN with concrete cooperation and bringing development and stability to the rugged north-east, hitherto a neglected and underdeveloped region of the vast Indian subcontinent.

ASEAN-India dialogue relations are problem free on the political front. But they pale in comparison with ASEAN’s partnership with North-east Asia, especially in terms of economic engagement — a point noted by numerous analysts participating in the Delhi Dialogue.

The developmental potential of India’s north-east provides a blank canvas for ASEAN-India economic cooperation. But significant challenges on the ground also mean that ASEAN’s reputation will be affected if the projects fail to take off.

At the Delhi Dialogue, officials reiterated Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s message at last year’s East Asia Summit in Myanmar, that the ASEAN-India partnership is at the core of Delhi’s Act East policy. An ambitious target for increased ASEAN-India trade linkages has been set: ASEAN-India trade for 2013-14 was US$75 billion (S$102 billion), but the target is to hit US$100 billion by the end of this year and US$200 billion by 2020.

In an interview with journalists, MEA Secretary (East) Anil Wadhwa highlighted that the main tenet for India’s Act East policy was to plug into the ASEAN Connectivity initiative. The initiative aims to improve physical connectivity within the bloc, giving a boost to regional integration efforts.

India plans to do this through, among other things, completing a trilateral highway project involving north-eastern states Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim, as well as Myanmar and Thailand. The 3,200km highway will run from Moreh in Manipur state to Mae Sot in Thailand via Mandalay in Myanmar. Mr Wadhwa added that, when completed in 2018, the highway would transform the landlocked fate of the north-eastern states and ultimately give them strategic access to Sittwe port in Myanmar.

UNTAPPED POTENTIAL

The main message from local officials in India’s north-east was the vast untapped potential of the region. In Assam, for instance, Chief Secretary Jitesh Khosla outlined at least three key areas of growth in the state. First: Agriculture and agro-processing. More than 100 varieties of rice can be grown in Assam. Second: Tourism. The state has almost 2,000 sq km of wildlife sanctuary. Third: Energy. Assam, considered the gateway to the north-east, has more than 150 billion cubic metres of gas reserves that have not been fully tapped.

The backbone of the Assam’s transport system is the 620km Brahmaputra River. Going forward, transport along the river will need to be integrated with roads and airports.

The region’s overall growth potential is buttressed by a world-class education system. The North Eastern Council (NEC) — a regional development body based in Meghalaya’s state capital Shillong headed by the state governors — noted that the region has a higher general literacy rate of 79 per cent, compared with 74 per cent for the rest of India.

The Indian Institute of Technology in Assam’s state capital Guwahati is the only Indian university to feature on Times Higher Education’s ranking of the world’s top 100 universities. Only 0.7 per cent of applicants gain admission to the country’s premier research university.

CHRONIC UNDERDEVELOPMENT

But the reality is that the region suffers from chronic underdevelopment. Historically, trust and familiarity between New Delhi and the isolated north-eastern states, connected by a narrow strip of land in West Bengal, have been lacking. Separatist movements in several states, such as a guerilla war in Assam that has been ongoing since the 1970s, have further stymied the region’s development.

The lack of investment in the region’s transport sector is especially stark. According to NEC statistics, the north-east has only 11 operational airports out of the 101 airports operational nationwide, while only 4 per cent of India’s railway tracks are in the region.

Officials on the ground are under no illusions about the size of the task at hand. “Bringing in investment is a big challenge here ... As far as the north-east is concerned, foreign direct investment has hardly taken place. We are just beginning to open up,” acknowledged Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma.

MANAGING EXPECTATIONS

From ASEAN’s perspective, closer relations with India would serve its interests, both in terms of drawing another geopolitical heavyweight closer to balance China’s growing influence in the region and to take advantage of the economic opportunities in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. But the issue is how to translate political goodwill into concrete cooperation. Other than Singapore, India’s largest trade partner in ASEAN, with more than S$25 billion worth of bilateral trade every year, other member states are less familiar with the investment environment in India.

On the other side, there are expectations in India’s north-east that the Act East policy will finally bring much-needed development to the region and put it on the map. Expectations are palpable, especially for road-connectivity projects with Myanmar and Thailand.

But the devil is in the details. For instance, the road link at the India-Myanmar border was inaugurated in 2001, but traffic is slow-moving as Myanmar has failed to upgrade the 71 single-lane bridges along the highway, as originally agreed. As for the trilateral highway under construction, there has been no discussion on which side of the road drivers will travel on — Thai and Indian drivers drive on the left, but in Myanmar, where the bulk of the trilateral highway will be built, motorists drive on the right.

The north-east is plagued by chronic underdevelopment and faces various complexities in realising physical connectivity. It is thus important to avoid underestimating the size of the task. ASEAN must manage expectations so it does not get cast in a negative light if the projects are delayed. Among the member states, Myanmar carries a disproportionate burden of realising ASEAN-India physical connectivity, but given Naypidaw’s myriad developmental and political challenges, it may struggle for bandwidth.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Albert Wai is a senior correspondent at TODAY’s foreign desk.