At 50, the Republic of Singapore Navy plays a more critical role than ever

Singapore’s economic success has been due largely to its development as an entrepot and global transshipment hub, in tandem with a strong manufacturing base.

This has been underpinned by its free and safe access to the sea lines of communication. The Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) has played a vital role in safeguarding Singapore’s maritime interests.

Being a small country with an open economy, Singapore is highly susceptible to both regional and international events. The contours of its regional maritime environment are rapidly changing, shaped by geopolitical contests over the maritime commons, as well as the proliferation of non-conventional threats.

These changes pose important questions for the RSN. Not only will it have to adapt to the changing context, it will have to play an active role in shaping that context to secure Singapore’s survival and prosperity.

The Asia-Pacific region is home to 46 countries, with millions dependent on the sea for trade, connectivity and resources. The maritime region has become more “contested”, with countries asserting competing claims over territory and resources as they become more developed.

In the East and South China Sea, there are ongoing disputes that impinge on the territorial seas, exclusive economic zones and attendant rights to the exploitation of resources of coastal states. These issues will increasingly become core to the national policies of coastal states in the region, leading to changing strategic priorities.

Defence spending in the Asia-Pacific countries is expected to grow in tandem with rapid regional economic growth.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, total defence spending in the Asia-Pacific is forecast to hit US$533 billion (S$745 billion) per year, with the region accounting for one in every three dollars spent on defence worldwide by the early 2020s.

A large part of defence spending by coastal states is channelled towards building naval capabilities, reflecting their growing interest in the maritime domain.

As the maritime space becomes more congested and contested, it is imperative for coastal states and their navies to put differences aside and find new ways to keep the risks of conflict in check.

This is important for Singapore, which has a vital interest in the free and orderly use of the seas based on international law. In this context, the RSN has both the duty and the opportunity to promote a stable maritime order. It is incumbent on the RSN and regional navies to develop operational arrangements and protocols to govern actions at sea, prevent miscalculations and promote mutual trust. The Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, endorsed in 2014 by 21 navies in the Asia-Pacific region, is one good example.

NON-CONVENTIonAL MARITIME SECURITY THREATS

Maritime terrorism and criminal activities transcend national boundaries. The phenomena of self-radicalisation and terrorist attacks in global cities present growing threats to Singapore’s security. In 2014, Al-Qaeda, in its online magazine, Resurgence, urged jihadist militants to attack economically-sensitive Western targets, such as oil tankers, along the Malacca Strait, and singled out Sembawang as a logistical node for the United States Navy’s Seventh Fleet, and a viable target for attack.

Apart from sabotage at sea, terrorist elements could exploit the porous maritime borders to smuggle perpetrators and arms ashore. In addition, sea robbery and piracy will continue to threaten the flow of maritime commerce along Singapore’s shipping lanes. These issues are part of a growing set of transnational problems that require collaborative solutions between countries.

These challenges present opportunities for states and navies to find common ground for cooperation. The Malacca Straits Patrol between Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand has been largely successful in eliminating piracy in the region. Moving forward, emerging security issues such as maritime counterterrorism will provide greater scope for the RSN and regional navies to strengthen collaboration and further expand the common security space.

In navigating the future environment, the RSN will face two sets of challenges. The first will be in responding effectively to the evolving set of security challenges in the maritime domain; the second will be to do so sustainably in a resource-constrained context. The issue of demographic decline is endemic to developed countries, and Singapore is no exception.

With the children of baby-boomers reaching enlistment age in the 2000s, the enlistment number peaked in 2011, with 21,000 men conscripted for national service (NS). This is projected to decline to levels in the 1990s of about 15,000 men by 2030.

Constraints in manpower will impose a need for the RSN to further leverage on automation to increase manpower efficiency, and prioritise investments in human capital to enhance combat productivity in line with the parallel development in capabilities.

An increasingly competitive manpower landscape will also encourage the RSN to diversify its sources of manpower beyond men from their NS years and tap a wider demography.

Investment in advanced technologies for Singapore’s defence capabilities and training systems is necessary, but requires a large and long-term financial commitment.

Singapore has been able to make significant investments in defence over the past few decades, within the favourable context of high economic growth and sustained increases in Budget revenue.

As its economy matures, Singapore will have to become accustomed to periods of slower growth.

Prudence in defence spending will become increasingly important, particularly as demographic changes, lower economic growth and increased social spending impose competing budgetary demands.

In the context of the RSN’s future transformation, budget constraints will necessitate targeted investments in identified “game changers” to maximise the defence dollar.

Emerging technology domains, such as data analytics and robotics, present opportunities where the RSN can forge a sustainable edge, moving forward.

The future maritime environment will be dynamic, and the RSN will have to anticipate changes and act boldly to address them. And it cannot go it alone.

The RSN will need to work with its friends and partners, at home and abroad. An effective response will ensure that the RSN plays a critical role in securing Singapore in the years ahead.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Barry Desker is a distinguished fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University and Singapore’s Non-Resident Ambassador to the Holy See and Spain. Among others, he was previously Chairman of ST Marine and CEO of Singapore Trade Development Board. This piece is taken from a book to commemorate RSN’s 50th anniversary. Titled “A Maritime Force for a Maritime Nation: Celebrating 50 Years of the Navy”, it will be launched by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong today as part of a series of activities to mark the anniversary.