All eyes on China’s next move

The ASEAN Summit in Phnom Penh that just ended drew considerable international attention even amid missiles in Gaza and another crisis in Europe.

Much attention has little to do intrinsically with the group of 10 countries.

The summit’s significance is magnified through the lens of United States-China competition. US President Barack Obama took his first overseas trip since winning re-election to attend the summit, as did Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in perhaps his last trip abroad.

Over the last two years, the Obama administration has made a concerted “pivot” to the region, whereas Beijing has seen alarm raised with neighbours over territorial disputes.

Mr Obama did well. Recall his first visit in 2009, when he was assailed in the American press for being too soft. This time, he pushed and persuaded on both economics and politics.

In Bangkok, the US reminded Thais of their long-standing alliance and prodded them towards entering the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) for closer economic links. In Yangon, Mr Obama — the first American President to visit the country — met reformist President Thein Sein and uttered the word “Myanmar”.

He then embraced — quite literally and heartily — iconic Opposition figure Aung San Suu Kyi and called the country “Burma”. The sensitive human rights question about problems in the Rakhine state was raised but was to be expected, given criticism about a presidential visit being premature.

Add this to strengthened ties with Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines, and the Obama administration’s first term will be noted for re-engaging the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN). Credit goes to State Secretary Hillary Clinton, who has been especially proactive in paving the way for the President.

OVER TO BEIJING NOW

But another factor has been China. Concerns about Beijing’s ambitions have made other Asians much more receptive to American attention.

It does not help that Beijing stands accused of influencing Cambodia as the ASEAN chair such that the group’s July ministerial meeting foundered and also showed signs of disunity when Cambodia’s draft statement led several leaders to reiterate their positions and insist on re-wording the text to salvage the situation.

Amid all this, Mr Obama did not need to stoke anxieties about China. He had instead the luxury of urging all sides to show restraint.

Intra-Asian differences will continue after the summit. The Philippines — most vocal about Chinese maritime claims — has called for a meeting with other ASEAN claimants: Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. China is pointedly excluded.

How Chinese leaders now respond can potentially shape relations with the region as a whole. So far, China has punished the Philippines by cutting off tourist visits, bought overpriced rice from Thailand’s government, asserted influence over Cambodia and provoked an ASEAN schism. These cannot be Beijing’s mainstays. China has always said it supports ASEAN centrality and its response needs instead to be broader and forward-looking.

After all, China’s economy continues to grow, while Washington stands at the edge of a financial cliff. So while Asians have welcomed Mr Obama, questions linger over the American wherewithal to remain engaged and grow alongside Asians. China should put trade and investment — and not territorial disputes — at the front and centre of its engagement with the rest of Asia.

Accordingly, China would do well to give attention to something else launched at the summit. This is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), to link Asia from China to India, with ASEAN as the hub, and others like Australia also in the frame. Despite all of Mr Obama’s charisma, the US is not within this economic group and instead champions the TPP.

The RCEP sets the stage for a new stage in Asian regionalism, centred on economics. If it can make the agreed deadline of 2015, this wider effort would support ASEAN’s own target for community integration. The RCEP is still at a preliminary stage and there are many obstacles ahead.

But if it can progress, the RCEP can provide many avenues to broaden the agenda and create more positive perceptions about China’s role in Asia. Beijing should do all it can to help ASEAN move forward with this.

Simon Tay is Chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and teaches international law at the National University of Singapore Faculty of Law.