Why the Malaysian opposition needs Mahathir

Last week marked a milestone in Malaysian politics. After nearly a year of sometimes acrimonious negotiations, the opposition alliance, Pakatan Harapan (PH), finally announced its top three office holders.

Anwar Ibrahim was made ketua umum (de facto leader), the former Malaysian Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohammad became PH chairman, and Dr Wan Azizah (Anwar’s wife) was named PH’s president.

The key sticking point in the negotiations had been deciding the positions of Dr Mahathir and Anwar.

These two Malay leaders are widely seen to be as the only politicians who can bring PH to within striking distance of ousting incumbent Prime Minister Najib Razak and the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition that has been in power since independence in 1957.

The momentous struggle involved in getting Dr Mahathir and Anwar to agree to their PH positions can only be understood by looking at contemporary history.

Anwar was picked by Dr Mahathir in the 1980s as one of his potential successors. With Dr Mahathir’s backing, within a decade of joining the United Malays National Organisation (Umno), Anwar became Malaysia’s deputy prime minister. When Anwar decided he could no longer wait for Dr Mahathir to step down, he mounted a covert attempt to force Dr Mahathir out.

Dr Mahathir struck back by sacking Anwar in 1998 and accusing him of homosexuality. Anwar was subsequently sent to prison for corruption and sodomy, a serious offence in Muslim-majority Malaysia. Dr Mahathir went on to become Malaysia’s longest serving prime minister, in power for a record 22 years.

Dr Mahathir’s power was such that Anwar was not released from prison until 2004, a year after Dr Mahathir stepped down as prime minister. Behind the scenes, Dr Mahathir’s political muscle remained intact - he first picked his successor, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and then, in 2009, engineered the ousting of Mr Badawi and the elevation of Mr Najib.

Everything was going to plan until Mr Najib refused Dr Mahathir’s principal request: to help ensure his son Mukhriz Mahathir moved up to one of the top five positions in Umno. Mr Najib did not support this and shortly after Dr Mahathir began his campaign to remove Mr Najib.

Mr Najib’s position as prime minister, however, has allowed him to remain in office despite Dr Mahathir’s efforts. During Dr Mahathir’s long rule, he had concentrated so much power into the office of the prime minister that it nigh impossible to remove an incumbent. Dr Mahathir became a victim of his own machinations.

With an internal coup out of the question, Dr Mahathir joined the opposition and formed a new political party - Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) - with former Umno members sacked for disloyalty to Mr Najib. He understood an opposition alliance would have the best chance of removing Mr Najib.

At the same time, the opposition Democratic Action Party’s (DAP) embrace of Dr Mahathir has raised eyebrows. The Chinese-based DAP was the main victim of Dr Mahathir’s strong arm tactics when he was in power. Mr Lim Kit Siang and his son, Lim Guan Eng, were jailed several times for political reasons during Dr Mahathir’s tenure yet they have now accepted him as the leader of the opposition.

ROYAL POWER

How is this possible? Especially without any apology from Dr Mahathir. The answer most often given to this question is that Dr Mahathir is the only person who can penetrate the rural Malay votes, hitherto the bastion of Umno and Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), and PH needs a significant portion of those votes to win the next general election, due on or before August 24 next year.

But there is another reason why Dr Mahathir holds a PH leadership position, one that is not discussed in public.

The entire PH leadership knows that Mr Najib and BN will not give up power easily if they lose the election. As stated earlier, Malaysia has never experienced a change of government at the federal level.

The conventional wisdom is that, if BN loses the vote, it will try to hang on to power via emergency rule or through Majlis Raja-Raja (Conference of Rulers, or CoR), the body that represents the King and his fellow Sultans.

This group is extraordinarily powerful: the King is required for a proclamation of emergency rule and the King swears in the prime minister.

Although the CoR represents Malay sovereignty, Malaysia is a constitutional monarchy and the Sultans are supposed to be above politics. But in practice they can decide who sits at the top of the political table.

In recent years, three Sultans have intervened publicly to select the menteri-besar (chief minister) of the state, going against the wishes of the winning political party. Only the most foolish politicians in Malaysia would ignore the wishes of the Malay Sultans.

This is where Dr Mahathir could play a crucial role. If PH wins, Dr Mahathir could act at the bridge between the CoR and PH. The Sultans know him well. While some openly dislike him, they also know he is part of the Malay establishment and would ensure Malay domination in any new government.

The other two pillars of the Malay establishment, the civil service and the security forces, would also be much more likely to accept a non-BN government with Dr Mahathir than they would one without.

The Malay establishment have a deep fear of the DAP whom many view as Chinese chauvinists who would destroy Ketuanan Melayu (Malay supremacy) and Ketuanan Islam (Islam supremacy) should they win government. With Dr Mahathir at the helm of PH, these fears are minimised.

Some may argue that Anwar could perform the same role as Mahathir but that would be wrong. Malay establishment view Anwar with suspicion.

Many think that Anwar is too ‘liberal’ after more than a decade of working with the no-Malay DAP, and after the Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s rejection of Malay supremacy in favour of Malay leadership.

The Malay establishment is also worried that, under Anwar, many of the lucrative no-bidding government contracts given to them via Malay ‘special rights’ would be reduced and they would be forced to compete for the business.

In this context, they have nothing to fear from Dr Mahathir - he has said many times Malay ‘special rights’ contracts are still needed to help Malay businesses. Mahathir is an enthusiastic supporter of Malay supremacy and he has done more to cement it into the political system than anyone else.

In summary, if the defenders of the Malay establishment are forced to hand over power to someone from outside the Umno, should it lose the upcoming election, there is no better person than Dr Mahathir. For them Dr Mahathir simply represents an alternative Ketuanan Melayu leadership, rather than real political reforms.

For this reason alone, Dr Mahathir is guaranteed a seat at the opposition’s high table.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Professor James Chin is the inaugural Director of the Asia Institute, University of Tasmania. This is adapted from a longer piece which first appeared in The Interpreter, published by the Lowy Institute for International Policy.