The connectivity revolution’s new reality

In his latest book, Connectography: Mapping The Future of Global Civilization, author and geopolitical specialist Parag Khanna explores how the world in future will be shaped more by infrastructure and economic connections than by national borders.

He also outlines how nations and cities will thrive in an increasingly connected world, with places that invest in world-class airports, real estate and schools (such as New York, Dubai and Singapore) expected to lead the way.

In a wide-ranging interview, TODAY’s Albert Wai (albertwai [at] mediacorp.com.sg) asks Dr Khanna — who has served in the foreign policy advisory group for Mr Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and is now a senior research fellow in the Centre on Asia and Globalisation at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy — about the main ideas in his new book.

In your book, you said the famous adage “geography is destiny” is becoming obsolete. But many developing countries are clearly still constrained by their geographical location. What are the opportunities for, say, landlocked countries, small island states in the Pacific and those surrounded by neighbours with a long history of tensions?

Because of global infrastructural connectivity — highways and railways, pipelines and electricity grids, fibre-optic cables and mobile-phone towers — no place is truly isolated anymore. Every society — and soon every person — is getting connected; it is only a question of degree.

For landlocked countries, this means more efficient access to seaports and markets to export commodities and agriculture. Small island states can more easily attract visitors.

In terms of countries with tensions, we find that connectivity allows countries such as China to expand their influence, but also that the spillover of investment creates the conditions for shared prosperity and stability rather than military confrontation.

One of the key ingredients for Singapore’s success is our geographical position as a global transport hub. Will our geography become less relevant with the passage of time?

There are several scenarios, ranging from Chinese pipelines through Myanmar to the Isthmus of Kra canal in Thailand, that would diminish Singapore’s physical geographic role as the only major trans-shipment hub in the region strategically located on the Straits of Malacca.

But these are a long way off. Even as new competitors arise, they also face the challenge to be as efficient, well-governed and reliable as Singapore. There is no competitor for that.

The Association of South-east Asian Nations’ (ASEAN’s) Connectivity Initiative to enhance intra-regional connectivity infrastructure and China’s One Belt One Road initiative — they are like the “infrastructural alliances” you write about. What role do they play in the global connectivity revolution”?

China’s investment in physical infrastructure bilaterally and through the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank is part of the global connectivity revolution — and (this) is all the more significant because it is taking place on the most populous land mass of Eurasia. China’s infrastructure alliances with its neighbours are not real political alliances but axes of convenience that benefit Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and other neighbours who crucially need this infrastructure investment even as they are suspicious of Chinese motives.

The ASEAN Connectivity Initiative is a great example of multidimensional investments. It focuses on ports, roads, customs, telecoms, mobility, investment agreements and a wide spectrum of issues that will enhance the efficiency of flows within ASEAN. The ASEAN Economic Community will advance this further. It will be a gradual process with fits and starts, but, overall, every ASEAN country sees the virtues of being connected to each other.

How will the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), if ratified, change the complexion of the “supply chain war” that is happening between the major economies of the world? How will American cities be affected?

TPP will benefit Asian countries — particularly Vietnam and the Philippines — in boosting their exports to the United States.

American cities on the west coast, in particular, that are producing for the Asian market will also benefit, but America needs to upgrade its infrastructure accordingly. American companies investing in high-growth sectors will also benefit from greater access to the Asian market.

On China’s efforts to expand its global supply chain, will its current financial problems affect how Beijing conducts business?

China has a strategy for a strong or weak renminbi. When the currency is strong, it invests more in acquiring assets abroad, even offshoring its manufacturing to Africa and elsewhere. When the currency is weak, its own exports remain competitive. Even as China slows its imports of raw materials from abroad, it still wants to be a supply-chain superpower to boost its own exports of electronics and other goods.

On China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea, how does it complement Beijing’s efforts to expand its global supply chain?

China’s supply-chain ambitions are the driver of its efforts in the South China Sea. It wants to ensure as much of its energy and resources come from east of the Straits of Malacca as possible, and thus wants to harness the oil and gas deposits and fisheries of these waters. It also wants to robustly monitor and secure the passageways, hence its island-building efforts in the Spratly and Paracel chains.

Arctic shipping routes are becoming more feasible and some say it will change the global shipping industry. What are the implications for global infrastructural connectivity?

Global warming is enabling greater investment in ports and other infrastructure in the Arctic region, a trend that Norway is capitalising on the fastest. Connectography has a chapter on the Arctic economic zone titled Kirkenes: Capital of the Arctic, named after the town in northern Norway, whose population and infrastructure are growing so rapidly.

This rising capacity to use the Arctic both for its resources and for transit makes the world more resilient because if there is a disruption in the Suez or Straits of Malacca, it will not undermine the ability to transport goods from Europe to Asia and back.

You mention the need for bolder thinking about how to leverage near-total connectivity to advance large scale human development. What could stop us from leveraging this connectivity?

There are many threats to continuing this positive revolution such as the slowdown in the world economy, which could mean diminished investment. Also there are political tensions over migration, which means that there is much more caution about the flow of people, which is exacerbated by cross-border terrorist attacks by the Islamic State.

We can never take connectivity for granted. We must nurture and advance it.