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Japan spooked by naval mystery in East China Sea

At about 9.50pm on the evening of June 8, a Russian destroyer and its support vessels sailed north into the 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone around the disputed island chain that Japan calls the Senkaku and China the Diaoyu. So began an international incident that touches half of the world, from Beijing to Moscow, Delhi to Washington.

At about 9.50pm on the evening of June 8, a Russian destroyer and its support vessels sailed north into the 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone around the disputed island chain that Japan calls the Senkaku and China the Diaoyu. So began an international incident that touches half of the world, from Beijing to Moscow, Delhi to Washington.

Warships are free to navigate the contiguous zones of other nations and Russian ships had passed this way before. But at about 12.50am on the morning of June 9, a Chinese frigate for the first time ever entered the contiguous zone sailing south. A tremor went up the Japanese chain of command until China’s ambassador to Tokyo was summoned from his bed.

At one point the Chinese vessel sailed directly towards an island, prompting fears in Tokyo of a landing. But then it curved round to intercept and match the Russian vessel’s course, with the ships departing to the north-east at 3.10am. Japan complained. China rejected the complaint, saying it has every right to sail in its own waters.

It was all over before the people of Japan and China awoke to find no dispute about what happened, but a vigorous debate about why. The facts admit to at least three different interpretations. None is fully satisfactory; each is disquieting for Tokyo but in a subtly different way.

MARITIME SKIRMISH

To start with, naval observers and Japanese officials reject the idea that the simultaneous presence of Russian and Chinese vessels was a coincidence. But one possibility is a misunderstanding: What if the Chinese frigate detected ships approaching the islands from the other side, thought they were Japanese and came in to investigate?

If that is what happened, it shows the risk of a new Gulf of Tonkin incident — a maritime skirmish that escalated the Vietnam war in 1964 — as heavily-armed aircraft and ships from several countries confronted each other in the disputed waters of east Asia.

Officials in Tokyo argue against this interpretation, however. Japanese ships regularly sail in the territorial waters and contiguous zone close to the islands without their Chinese adversaries entering in response.

A second possibility, therefore, is that the Chinese frigate took advantage of the Russian navigation as an excuse to enter the Senkaku contiguous zone, but their action was not co-ordinated. In that case the incident was a unilateral move by China — upsetting for Tokyo but merely the latest step in a steady escalation of activity around the disputed islands.

During the day on June 9, Russia’s embassy in Tokyo tweeted that its ships were returning from a regular exercise, it had “nothing to do with China”, and there was “no need to worry”. The embassy then promptly deleted its own tweet. The no co-ordination theory implies Beijing would antagonise Moscow by interfering in its relationship with Japan. That leaves the third and most worrying possibility for Tokyo: That Russia and China acted together in some way. It is Japan’s geopolitical nightmare: Its two giant neighbours united.

A link seems almost as unlikely as the absence of one. Who would make such a decision? Moscow and Beijing are hardly allies. Mr Shinzo Abe, Japan’s Prime Minister, has been on a charm offensive with Mr Vladimir Putin, visiting Russia for a summit and promising all kinds of economic help in return for negotiations about another disputed island chain, the Kurils.

China’s motivation is also unclear. An international court is due to rule soon on a case brought by the Philippines against its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Japanese officials, however, point to a series of different and potentially connected events. Later on June 9, thousands of kilometres away from the islands, a company of Chinese soldiers marched up a Himalayan mountain and on to disputed territory controlled by India. The next day American, Japanese and Indian vessels began joint naval exercises in the western Pacific, with a Chinese intelligence vessel intruding on Japan’s territorial waters in its efforts at keeping watch.

The only certain answers lie with officials in Moscow and Beijing, who are not explaining. Left with uncertainty, the effect has been to knock Japan off balance, heightening its unease about island disputes to both north and south, but also pushing it towards stronger ties with Washington and Delhi. The Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute is combustible already. Add a third navy — creating an extra layer of uncertainty for decision-makers on all sides — and you have the ingredients of a serious international incident. FINANCIAL TIMES

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Robin Harding is the Tokyo Bureau Chief at Financial Times.

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