Modi aims to strengthen power base in Asia

If Mr Narendra Modi’s recent public statements are anything to go by, the geopolitical power play in the region may have a new interested player — India. The Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Singapore comes after the conclusion of the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN (Association of South-east Asian Nations) Summit in Kuala Lumpur, where Mr Modi clearly signalled India’s intention to be a part of the “Big Boys Club”.

Despite being an emerging economy and certainly one of the world’s largest economies, India’s influence in South-east Asia and East Asia has arguably been overshadowed as much by China’s meteoric rise as by its inability to deliver on its economic potential in the past. The geopolitics in the region have often focused on the interplay between China and the United States, primarily, and on Japan occasionally, relegating India to being content with the dominant role in its backyard of South Asia.

India, it appears, wants to alter that equation now. In his speech at the East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday, Mr Modi chose to offer his advice on a regional matter — the South China Sea maritime disputes — an issue that has figured prominently on the ASEAN agenda in recent times.

Rather unexpectedly, he urged the countries involved, including China, to take a leaf from India’s own diplomatic book in resolving the spat. “India and Bangladesh recently settled their maritime boundary using the mechanism of UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea). India hopes that all parties to the disputes in the South China Sea will abide by the Declaration on the Conduct on South China Sea and the guidelines on the implementation. Parties must also redouble efforts for early adoption of a Code of Conduct on the basis of consensus,” he said.

He also took the opportunity to highlight India’s own interest in the dispute, pointing out that “the oceans remain the pathway to its prosperity and security” and that it shares with ASEAN “a commitment to freedom of navigation, overflight and unimpeded commerce” and, in a subtle dig at China, reminded the summit that “territorial disputes must be settled through peaceful means”.

THE GREAT DIPLOMATIC BALANCING ACT

In demonstrating India’s greater intent to deepen its power base in the region, Mr Modi has also cleverly turned to the Indian diaspora as a springboard.

In what has become a signature segment of his overseas visits, the Indian Prime Minister also spoke to a reported 15,000-strong gathering of overseas Indians in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday. But greater attention should be paid to what he said rather than how many he said it to. One of Mr Modi’s eyebrow-raising statements at the event was: “India is not confined to its territory. India exists in every Indian in every part of the world.”

Clearly, he has formulated a unique mix of Indian soft power to expand the country’s global influence — of his own charismatic appeal and popularity, the emotional links and size of the Indian diaspora, and using them as a localised medium to transmit aspects of the Indian culture. It is perhaps no coincidence, then, that his Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mr Vikas Swarup, is the author of the book adapted into the movie Slumdog Millionaire — arguably India’s most successful soft power export to the West.

But in this region and as far as flexing its hard muscles are concerned, Mr Modi knows that India needs a prominent partner to help it expand its influence here. Enter Japan. One of the highlights of Mr Modi’s appearance at the ASEAN-India summit in Kuala Lumpur was his courtship of his Japanese counterpart, Mr Shinzo Abe.

The two reportedly met for more than an hour on the sidelines of the summit, with the South China Sea dispute figuring heavily in discussions. Both leaders discussed intensifying their security cooperation and, according to reports, Mr Abe highlighted his country’s concerns about China’s major land reclamation work in the South China Sea, which Mr Modi agreed with and said it was legitimate for the Japanese leader to have those concerns. Mr Abe even told the media afterwards that he plans to visit Mr Modi in India next month, a move that will deepen their blossoming strategic relationship.

But here is where Mr Modi’s political astuteness comes in. While he is seemingly batting against China on the security front, the Indian leader was playing on the side of Beijing from an economic perspective. During the East Asia Summit, Mr Modi advocated the need for a wider and more inclusive regional economic architecture — an outcome that China desires. The recent inking of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, which excludes China and India, means that both countries will miss out on the lucrative trade deal. This could be worsened if the TPP overshadows the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which both India and China are party to, and ends up as the emergent economic architecture of the region.

“The Trans-Pacific Partnership is also a major development. These (TPP and RCEP), I hope, will eventually not become competing regimes, but the foundations of an integrated economic community in the region,” he said in his speech.

It seems that while India may be trying to squeeze its own way through amid China’s burgeoning muscles in the region, ironically, India may also need to leverage China’s growing might to push through its economic interests in South-east Asia. Such seemingly conflicting objectives will require a great diplomatic balancing act. It is apt then that Mr Modi has taken the country’s foreign policy reins in his own hands.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Malminderjit Singh was most recently the Executive Director of the Singapore Indian Chamber of Commerce & Industry and a former journalist.