The mother of all elections

Malaysia’s most crucial general election (GE) in decades will be a titanic battle between two leaders for whom the polls will also be a referendum on their respective political futures.

Once close allies in the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), Prime Minister Najib Razak and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim will clash directly for the first time in an electoral test of wills and skills — after having gone separate ways, carried by the tide of hard-knock politics.

Who between them will go on to lead the country, and who will be consigned to history, will be known only after the 13th GE is fought and concluded. Indeed, Mr Najib is turning this into a referendum on his leadership, offering himself as the true visionary leader — and not Mr Anwar nor Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) chief Hadi Awang — deserving of the people’s mandate.

The big question is whether GE13 will be conclusive, given the monumental fight ahead, and whether there will follow a period of uncertainty, if not instability, and what this will mean for Malaysia and the region.

It is significant that on the day Parliament was dissolved, April 3, both Mr Najib and Mr Anwar gave assurances of a smooth and peaceful transition of power regardless of the outcome.

PAKATAN AND ANWAR

Unlike previous GEs, it has been unusually difficult to predict with confidence the winner for this one, though most agree it will be very closely and bitterly fought, and the margin of victory likely wafer-thin.

Various opinion polls have been projecting narrow wins. While most project a slim victory for Barisan Nasional (BN), predictions of an opposition win have also surfaced. One such instance floated by the Chief Economist of the government-linked Bank Islam led to his immediate suspension. It shows just how potentially explosive GE13 has become.

If Mr Anwar’s opposition alliance Pakatan Rakyat does win, he is most likely to be the new Prime Minister. This is not, however, as foregone a conclusion as it used to be, given the pockets of resistance to him in some circles within Pakatan component party PAS, and the shadow play by others that has rattled the opposition ranks.

At one point, an UMNO veteran and former opposition leader Razaleigh Hamzah emerged in one scenario as a possible Prime Minister in a Pakatan-led government — in anticipation of an inconclusive outcome in which neither BN nor Pakatan has a sufficient majority to form a strong government.

The idea of Mr Razaleigh becoming an alternate candidate for Prime Minister should the opposition win has been immediately dismissed by Pakatan leaders and, curiously, denied by Mr Razaleigh himself.

It just goes to show how fluid things have become. The proposal was first floated by a group of Mr Razaleigh’s former office-holders, Amanah, as part of its bargaining attempt to support a Pakatan win should Mr Anwar be removed from the scene for one reason or other.

If Mr Anwar fails to unseat BN, he will retire from politics, as he himself has declared publicly. That will put an end to the political career of one of the most charismatic, yet controversial, leaders in post-independence Malaysia.

THE ISSUE OF MALAY POWER

Mr Najib, like the BN he leads, is under intense pressure to win. From Mr Najib’s perspective, at stake is the entire political system that has been built and steered by his UMNO, the dominant party in BN.

This system is premised on the centrality and dominance of Malay political power that is shared with the other communities through their ethnic-based parties, in what former Premier Mahathir Mohamad has lately called the “kongsi” (sharing) concept.

As UMNO sees it, that Malay centrality is now under threat with the emergence of Pakatan — which, in the 2008 GE, snatched away BN’s two-thirds majority for the first time and forced the exit of Mr Najib’s predecessor, Mr Abdullah Badawi.

Ironically, Mr Anwar’s three-party opposition alliance is dominated by two components that are preponderantly Malay and Muslim, and one that is Chinese-dominated. All three also claim to be plural parties including, increasingly, the Islamist PAS.

The fundamental difference is that unlike UMNO, Pakatan is not ideologically rooted in Malay hegemony, although political reality will force the alliance to defend the dominance of Malay political power and Islam — in the latter case, especially so with PAS.

Indeed, in a refrain seldom heard of late, party leader Hadi Awang said recently that PAS would not hesitate to quit Pakatan should Islam and the Malays lose out from PAS’ involvement in the coalition.

NAJIB’S PERSONAL BATTLE

For Mr Najib, this battle is crucial personally. At stake is his reputation as son of the country’s second Prime Minister, Tun Abdul Razak Hussein, who presided over the expansion of the ruling coalition into BN.

While BN cannot afford to lose, Mr Najib cannot afford to even have BN fail to recapture its two-thirds majority. This he must achieve to safeguard his own position in UMNO. Besides, he must win back at least one of the four states lost to Pakatan, especially Selangor.

Should he fail, Mr Najib may be forced out as UMNO President and Premier — just like Mr Abdullah. This possibility, first openly predicted last year by former Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin, was echoed recently by Dr Mahathir.

The delay in holding GE13 has worked against the Prime Minister, partly because he wants to be certain he can at least win back the two-thirds majority. According to The Malaysian Insider, intelligence assessments were sure of 135 seats for BN — 13 seats short of the 148 required to secure the two-thirds majority in a 222-seat Parliament.

BN, the Insider says, is however confident of winning at least 145 seats. In other words, while winning back the two-thirds majority is a possibility, it is not a certainty.

The heat of the electoral battle has in fact become even more intense of late, with venomous character attacks from both sides resurfacing in cyberspace to erode the standing of both Mr Najib and Mr Anwar.

FUTURE OF COALITION POLITICS?

Whichever way it turns out, GE13 will have major implications for the future of Malaysia’s coalition politics.

The political system has been so hegemonised by UMNO and BN that all previous attempts to form a rival coalition have failed miserably. Even so, the system has been evolving towards a two-coalition system. Pakatan is the latest rendition of this quest for a dual-coalition model.

The alliance has been beset by major problems of cohesion posed by conflicting ideologies and interests within, as well as obstacles strewn by the ruling government from without. Pakatan, however, has so far shown some resilience, with its strongest asset being Mr Anwar’s cementing and galvanising power.

If BN succeeds in diminishing the Anwar factor, the prospect of Pakatan unravelling is real enough, although opposition leaders say they are prepared to stick together in a scenario without Anwar.

If Pakatan survives as an alternative coalition, thus giving a peaceful outlet for divergent political views, this will contribute to the maturing of the Malaysian political system.

If BN wins, even narrowly, one of its challenges post-GE13 will be to develop a system that revolves around the battle of ideas, rather than one that determines the national leadership via gutter politics.

If BN loses, it could turn its unfamiliar role of the opposition into an advantage. If it uses that period to reinvent itself, BN could launch a strong comeback — just like Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party or Taiwan’s Kuomintang, and even Indonesia’s Golkar.

But should GE13 prove inconclusive, all scenarios are possible — ranging from uncertainty to intense political bargaining, even instability.

In such a state of flux, new power equations cannot be ruled out, making the future unpredictable to an unprecedented extent. No one, however, wants to see a replay of the sectarian riots of May 13, 1969. The outcome of GE13 and its implications will be something to watch for.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Yang Razali Kassim is a Senior Fellow with the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He is also the author of Transition Politics in Southeast Asia.

This article is the first of a series by RSIS commentators on the Malaysian general election. Next: East Malaysia: From fixed deposits to kingmakers