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North Korea’s blackmail missile

The Unha-3 rocket launched from Sohae in North Korea on the morning of Dec 12 could be considered a mild surprise, because South Korean intelligence sources had suggested it had been cancelled.

The Unha-3 rocket launched from Sohae in North Korea on the morning of Dec 12 could be considered a mild surprise, because South Korean intelligence sources had suggested it had been cancelled.

More surprising was the success of the launch, which makes North Korea the 10th member of the world’s “Space Club”. The Unha-3 follows the Unha-2, which failed spectacularly in 2009 — so the evident progress that North Korea has made in its missile technology in such a short period has shocked governments around the world.

The United Nations Security Council responded by debating a resolution on strengthening sanctions against North Korea. Only China — no surprise — opposed new sanctions, stressing that “actions that heighten tension on the Korean Peninsula should not be taken”.

China’s leaders oppose stiffer sanctions against North Korea for a simple reason: They fear the frailty of Mr Kim Jong Un’s regime more than they fear the international security consequences of the missile launch. Above all, China wants to prevent the regime’s collapse, which it fears may result from stricter sanctions.

If the Kim regime timed the missile launch to have a direct impact on elections in nearby Japan and South Korea, it may have succeeded merely in boosting support for defence-oriented conservative parties. Indeed, although it is difficult to say how large an impact the launch had on the result in Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory.

Although Ms Park Geun Hye’s victory in South Korea, where she became its first female President, followed a campaign mainly focused on domestic economic issues, North Korea’s missile-guided brinkmanship probably shifted many undecided voters to the security-minded Ms Park’s camp.

KIM’S PERVERSE LOGIC

So, given the seemingly negative impact of the launch on neighbouring South Korea and Japan, why didn’t the North hold its fire?

Some suggest that North Korean leaders were determined to stage the launch before the first anniversary of Mr Kim’s assumption of power on Dec 17. Others suggest that the North Koreans prefer conservatives in power in Seoul and Tokyo, because a more robust vision of national defence in Japan and South Korea will antagonise China which, isolated in East Asia, will then be more likely to maintain its support for the Kim regime. After all, China’s small list of friends in Asia became even smaller this year, given Myanmar’s democratic transition.

So, in Mr Kim’s perverse logic, a new push for UN sanctions, and new security-conscious governments in Japan and South Korea, will strengthen North Korea’s hold on Chinese foreign policy. Thus, the missile launch can be viewed as an indication of how threatened the Kim dynasty feels: The regime appears to believe it must blackmail its closest ally to maintain its support.

The primary cause of the regime’s fears is growing political uncertainty, the direct result of the failing health of General Kim Kyong Hui, Mr Kim’s aunt and the power behind the throne.

Indeed, keen observers of North Korea suggest that Mr Kim ordered the missile launch as a way to strengthen his grip on power while he still has the experienced and ruthless Gen Kim’s backing. Without it, the Kim dynasty’s hold on power would almost certainly weaken, given Mr Kim’s youth and inexperience, plunging the country into chaos.

POWER STRUGGLE BEGUN

One seemingly obscure political move last month — the appointment of Mr Jang Sung Taek (Gen Kim’s husband) as the Chairman of the State Physical Culture and Sports Guidance Commission — suggests that Gen Kim’s ill health is already having an impact on the regime. The commission comprises the regime’s most powerful members. Mr Jang’s move to the post strongly suggests that the internal struggle for power is already heating up.

North Korea’s missile launch, coming amid the internal uncertainty arising from Gen Kim’s failing health, creates an extremely dangerous situation for the global community. Only by strengthening UN sanctions to an extent that North Korea is forced to abandon its nuclear weapons — and China to reconsider its knee-jerk support — can the regime be dissuaded from further, and more ominous, manoeuvring.

But, given China’s continuing opposition to further sanctions, there is scant hope of this happening. Until China puts its responsibilities as a global power ahead of its narrow national interests, the danger from North Korea will grow as the Kim regime becomes ever more unstable. PROJECT SYNDICATE

Yuriko Koike, Japan’s former Minister of Defence and National Security Adviser, is a former Chairwoman of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party.

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