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In S’pore’s defence against terror, good coordination is vital

Singapore is a prime target for a terror strike, and such an attack is no longer a distant possibility, but almost a looming certainty.

Singapore is a prime target for a terror strike, and such an attack is no longer a distant possibility, but almost a looming certainty.

This refrain has been repeated by Government leaders in recent months, to the point where it almost runs the risk of becoming a case of “crying wolf”.

Yet, clearly, the terrorism threat to Singapore is real. The Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) arrests in 2001, Mas Selamat’s escape in 2008, and the more recent arrests of individuals who planned to join the Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East or wreak havoc at home are grim reminders of how vulnerable we can be.

Home Affairs Minister K Shanmugam said recently that the current wave of global terrorism poses the most significant threat to Singapore in recent decades.

The IS is preoccupied with the fight in Syria and Iraq, and also seems to lack an existing proxy in Singapore to execute plans here. But this does not mean the status quo will persist indefinitely. Last year, there were at least 56 attacks outside Iraq and Syria that were directed or inspired by the IS.

Singapore’s neighbours Malaysia and Indonesia have seen rising numbers of individuals who have links to the IS, who have fought in the Middle East and returned battle-hardened and bent on causing harm at home. The JI network in Indonesia also seems to be reviving.

Other countries in the region, such as Thailand and the Philippines, have not been spared from terror attacks, and there is a very real possibility that the IS vision of forming a “wilayat” or province in South-east Asia could come to fruition in the near future.

And there remains the potential threat of self-radicalised individuals within Singapore’s own borders.

Singapore’s leaders have emphasised the need for society to remain resilient in the aftermath of any attack, against forces that could split the social fabric along racial and religious lines.

But the immediate response to an attack will be crucial too.

In recent weeks, the Home Affairs and Defence ministries have separately outlined plans to combat any attack on Singapore soil.

New police Emergency Response Teams (ERTs) will be set up, trained in counter-assault tactics and equipped to respond quickly to simultaneous attacks at multiple locations.

At the same time, the Singapore Armed Forces has identified the Special Operations Task Force as its first responders in the event of a terrorist attack, drawing assets from all branches of the military.

But which is best suited to deal with the new pantheon of threats: The police or the military?

The Home Team is closer to the ground, and the police have a much more visible and immediate presence, thanks to regular patrols and the new ERTs that will be deployed around the country. They can also draw on the expertise of the elite Special Tactics and Rescue personnel, and Special Operations Command units.

But the military has had experience with previous incidents, such as the hijacking of Singapore Airlines flight SQ117 in 1991, which saw commandos storming the aircraft and rescuing the hostages.

A combined solution is the appropriate response. However, the challenge will be ensuring coordination between the Home Team and military assets earmarked for the task.

One factor behind the deadly success of the Sept 11, or 9/11, attacks in the United States was the lack of prompt sharing of intelligence between its national agencies such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Central Intelligence Agency, due to turf wars and a lack of a coherent overall strategy to battle terrorism.

In a small country like Singapore, this cannot be allowed to happen. Agencies should be mandated to share the latest information and intelligence promptly with partner organisations.

It is equally important that Singapore continues to share data and cooperate with the intelligence agencies of its neighbouring countries, if potential threats are to be nipped in the bud.

At the tactical level, security forces on the ground must also find ways to better coordinate efforts. This will be challenging, as the various forces have different training and standard operating procedures.

When American units were first deployed to the Middle East in the wake of 9/11, its Navy Seals, Delta Force and other units converged on a battlefield with the same objective but many different methods.

In many cases it was easier for soldiers to simply divvy up the battle space geographically, allowing each unit to operate in relative isolation, thus avoiding confusion and the potential for clashes with friendly forces.

But the small size and open geography of Singapore means it is impractical to demarcate boundaries and ensure that forces keep to their assigned areas, especially if an attack involves multiple terrorists and locations, as was the case in Paris last November.

Singapore’s police and military have acknowledged that coordinating efforts between forces is among their key priorities, though the details of such coordination are unlikely to be released fully to the public, in order for their effectiveness to be preserved.

Mr Shanmugam said Singapore has studied the Paris attacks carefully as part of efforts to improve Singapore’s response to terror threats.

The Paris attackers were able to carry out their deadly bombings and shootings in November even though the city was already in a state of heightened security ahead of the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference. France had already been struck by terrorists just a few months prior: The Charlie Hebdo shootings and related attacks in January.

In the aftermath of the Paris attacks in November, the French authorities were criticised for reacting slowly as a result of weaknesses in the highly centralised French police structure. There were also allegations that France had failed to respond to warnings from foreign intelligence agencies.

The tragedy in Paris must serve as a wake-up call for Singapore and the region. Ideally, Singapore’s security forces will not need to be called into action, but with the terror threat at its highest level in years, there is no room for complacency.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Nicholas Fang is Executive Director at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

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