Commentary

Time for China to prepare for the worst over N Korea

Time for China to prepare for the worst over N Korea
Buildings in North Korea are seen from the Chinese border town of Tumen in eastern China's Jilin province Photo: Kyodo News via AP
Published: 4:00 AM, September 14, 2017

Recent missile and nuclear tests have returned North Korea to the centre of international attention.

According to analysts, these tests demonstrate that Pyongyang not only possesses nuclear weapons, but also missiles that can reach the west coast of the United States. It should not be long before North Korea develops the capability to miniaturise its nuclear weapons and fit them to its intermediate- and long-range missiles.

As predicted, the US reaction was quick and strong. President Donald Trump threatened that the US will rain “fire and fury” upon North Korea if it launches an attack.

For China, this turn of events has heightened the urgency of addressing the North Korean nuclear issue. Among other things, it has increased the likelihood of a US pre-emptive strike against North Korea.

And, even if the US refrains from doing so, harsher sanctions as well as more frequent and larger military exercises could sharply increase the chances of a military conflict and of a crisis erupting in North Korea.

China has already stepped up its efforts to implement UN sanctions against North Korea. Importantly, Beijing has suspended coal imports from North Korea, which is generally believed to be a key source of income for Pyongyang.

China hopes that North Korea will see the light and accept China’s “two suspensions” proposal, meaning that North Korea would suspend nuclear and missile tests in exchange for suspension of joint US–South Korea military exercises.

Beijing believes this is the only way to cool down the situation and pave the way for resuming dialogue and negotiations between the two sides.

But North Korea has largely ignored China’s efforts. Pyongyang has not only continued with missile tests, but also publicly vowed to destroy Guam with nuclear weapons if the US uses force against it. The omens of war on the Korean Peninsula loom larger by the day.

When war becomes a real possibility, China must be prepared. And, with this in mind, Beijing must be more willing to consider talks on contingency plans with the countries concerned.

The US and South Korea have long tried to persuade China to hold talks on contingency planning. So far Beijing has resisted the idea for fear of upsetting and alienating Pyongyang. But, given recent developments, Beijing may have no better choice than to start talking with Washington and Seoul.

The first issue that Beijing may wish to talk about is who would control North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal. After all, these weapons are too dangerous to be left in the hands of a North Korean army caught in political chaos.

On the one hand, China may not be opposed to the idea that the US military do the job since this would prevent proliferation. North Korea’s nuclear weapons are of no technological value and it would be very costly to take care of them.

On the other hand, China may have a problem with the US military crossing the 38th parallel, reviving memories of the Korean War in the early 1950s. On balance, China may wish to take care of the nuclear weapons itself.

The US may accept this for the reasons of non-proliferation and cost. The US does not have the same historical baggage against the Chinese military taking such actions in North Korea.

The second issue Beijing might wish to talk about is how to deal with the expected refugee problem. Beijing may accept the suggestion that the People’s Liberation Army march across China’s border with North Korea to create a safety zone in order to build shelters for refugees and stem a massive refugee inflow into China’s north-east.

The third issue Beijing may wish to talk about is who is to restore domestic order in North Korea in the event of a crisis. The South Korean forces? The UN peacekeeping forces? Or some other forces? China would probably object to US forces doing the job because that would require the US military crossing the 38th parallel.

The fourth issue Beijing may wish to discuss is the post-crisis political arrangements of the Korean peninsula. Should the international community set up a new government for North Korea? Or should it endorse a UN-sponsored Peninsula-wide plebiscite on reunification in preparation for a united Korea?

Finally, Beijing may also wish to talk about the removal of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) system from the peninsula when Pyongyang’s nuclear programme is gone. Beijing believes that the system undermines China’s security and has urged the US and South Korea to remove it.

Washington and Seoul are likely to accept the idea. After all, both have repeatedly claimed that the deployment of the Thaad system is nothing more than a response to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes.

As before, China does not wish to face a crisis situation in North Korea because it threatens a nuclear war, political turmoil, a massive refugee problem and other unpredictable negative consequences.

But as the situation on the Korean Peninsula deteriorates, China has no alternative but to get prepared. EAST ASIA FORUM

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Jia Qingguo, Dean of Peking University’s School of International Studies, is a member of the Standing Committee and the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.