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Time for US’ allies to share security burden

The people who prepare President Barack Obama’s national security briefing must be wondering what to put at the top of the pile. Should it be the Russian assault on Ukraine or the advance of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria? And what items should go just below that?

Middle Eastern countries have spent lavishly on their armies and air forces. Yet, it has been left to the US to wage the bombing campaign against the Islamic State. PHOTO: AP

Middle Eastern countries have spent lavishly on their armies and air forces. Yet, it has been left to the US to wage the bombing campaign against the Islamic State. PHOTO: AP

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The people who prepare President Barack Obama’s national security briefing must be wondering what to put at the top of the pile. Should it be the Russian assault on Ukraine or the advance of the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria? And what items should go just below that?

The violent anarchy in Libya, the dangerous stalemate in Afghanistan, the looming political crisis in Hong Kong or a confrontation between Chinese and United States planes near the Hainan island?

The US President might reasonably ask why all these crises are breaking out at the same time. His critics have a ready answer. They argue that the Obama administration has shown itself to be weak and indecisive.

As a result, America’s adversaries are testing its limits and the US-led security order is under challenge in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. There is no doubt that the US is war-weary after the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, the multiplication of security crises around the world is not just about Mr Obama and the US.

In fact, the obsession with what the Americans are doing points to the underlying problem. Its allies have come to rely excessively on the US to guarantee their security. As a result, the biggest weakness in the global security system is not a lack of resolve in Washington, but the learned helplessness of America’s regional allies.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit this week in Wales represents a crucial opportunity for America’s most important allies to start doing more to share the burden. If they fail, the inability of the US to police the world alone will become increasingly apparent and the various global security crises will intensify.

The pattern of NATO spending reflects Europe’s increasing reliance on the US. At the height of the Cold War, America accounted for roughly half the military spending of the alliance, with the rest of NATO accounting for the other 50 per cent.

Now, however, the US accounts for some 75 per cent of NATO spending. Last year, of the 28 NATO members, only the US, Britain, Greece and Estonia met the alliance’s target of spending at least 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence.

Even the United Kingdom may soon slip below 2 per cent, with the British army on course to shrink to about 80,000, its smallest size since just after the Napoleonic wars.

Even when it comes to the non-military side of security, the Europeans have lagged well behind.

The US was quicker to push through sanctions on Russia and its measures have been tougher, despite the fact that Russia’s undeclared war in Ukraine is a much more direct threat to Europe.

EUROPE MUST STEP UP

This same over-reliance on the US is evident in the Middle East. The rise of the IS is a massive threat to the dwindling band of stable regimes in the region, above all Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. In recent years, these countries have spent lavishly on their armies and air forces.

And yet, it has been left to the US to wage the bombing campaign against the IS, while the nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council keep their 600 combat planes on the tarmac and complain about American weakness.

A similar pattern is on display in Asia, where US allies, such as Japan and the Philippines, agitate for the US to increase its military commitment to the region in response to an increasingly assertive China. And yet, even as they call for US help, America’s allies in east Asia have been unable to present a united front, in opposition to China’s maritime claims.

This litany of allied weakness is dangerous precisely because America is indeed more reluctant to “bear any burden” (in President John F Kennedy’s famous words) to uphold the international order.

The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have left their marks. So has the financial crisis of 2008. Mr Obama’s reluctance to deploy military force is not an aberration or a personal folly. It is an accurate reflection of the mood of the American people, with opinion polls showing the highest levels of isolationism in more than 50 years.

The pattern of NATO spending reflects Europe’s increasing reliance on the US. That mood could shift in response to Russian aggression and the chaos in the Middle East.

However, even if it does, the days when the US was capable of being the world’s super cop — with relatively little assistance — are coming to a close.

The World Bank estimates that this year, China will probably become the world’s largest economy, measured by purchasing power.

America’s defence budget is falling as it struggles to control its national debt. The gradual relative decline of the US is a much worse problem than it might otherwise be, because America’s closest allies in the EU are in the grip of severe economic crises, which are eroding their ability to exercise power.

Collectively, the West now accounts for a decreasing share of the world economy as new sources of power and wealth rise up in Asia. A Western-dominated world is, therefore, in danger of looking increasingly like an anachronism — and this is the proposition that, in their different ways, Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Islamic State and the Chinese military are testing.

The perception of declining Western power now threatens to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The only way for North Americans and Europeans to stop this from happening is to work together with greater determination and purpose to combat the crises burning out of control on the fringes of Europe, in Ukraine and the Middle East. That work needs to start at this week’s NATO summit.

As Benjamin Franklin put it: “We must all hang together or, assuredly, we will all hang separately.”

THE FINANCIAL TIMES

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Gideon Rachman is the Financial Times’ chief foreign affairs columnist.

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