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Ukraine crisis holds lessons for Singapore

Yesterday, during the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Committee of Supply debate, Foreign Affairs and Law Minister K Shanmugam spoke in Parliament about the geopolitics in the region and beyond, in a wide-ranging speech on international relations. Among other things, he outlined lessons that Singapore can learn from the Ukraine crisis. These are excerpts of his speech:

Ukrainian servicemen in the Crimea region. Ukraine was a functioning state that was negotiating an economic agreement with the European Union, yet it finds itself in deep crisis, facing the serious risk of dismemberment. Photo: REUTERS

Ukrainian servicemen in the Crimea region. Ukraine was a functioning state that was negotiating an economic agreement with the European Union, yet it finds itself in deep crisis, facing the serious risk of dismemberment. Photo: REUTERS

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Yesterday, during the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Committee of Supply debate, Foreign Affairs and Law Minister K Shanmugam spoke in Parliament about the geopolitics in the region and beyond, in a wide-ranging speech on international relations. Among other things, he outlined lessons that Singapore can learn from the Ukraine crisis. These are excerpts of his speech:

 

The task for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is to chart a course in an uncertain world — a course that best protects our country, economy and advances our people’s interests.

How do we do it?

- Build and maintain strong international network of friends; and actively participate in international organisations which are relevant to us;

- Support key regional organisations and platforms;

- Maintain strong relationships with our neighbours ... to the extent possible; I say that because it depends on principles of mutual respect for each other’s sovereignty and interests.

These principles have to be applied to the real world — a world in a state of dynamic flux. Geopolitical relationships change; often they change quickly.

As we speak, yet another new crisis has been added to the international problems already facing all of us.

What is happening in the Ukraine impacts on all of us at several levels — there is a potential impact on the world economy, and therefore our economy as well. Other countries will see what patterns of behaviour are possible. This is a situation of a stand-off now between a big country and a small country. It offers several lessons for Singapore in real politics and international law.

I have dwelt on the Ukraine at some length for two key reasons: First, Singapore has always emphasised that big or small, all countries must observe international law. And we have consistently opposed invasions: East Timor, Cambodia — we took a clear stand, even when our views were contrary to those of far bigger powers, who were quite unhappy with us. Indonesia and the Soviet Union were amongst those who were unhappy then.

We take the same stand now. There should not be any invasion of Ukraine.

Second, the events in Ukraine hold a number of lessons for us. Russia had signed an agreement in 1994 with the United States and the United Kingdom agreeing not to threaten or use force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine. They also pledged never to use economic coercion to subjugate Ukraine to their own interest. Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence was thus confirmed by a treaty.

Lesson 1: when it comes to the crunch, treaties are only meaningful if you have the ability to enforce them. If Ukraine cannot defend the treaty, and has no partners which will come to its aid — and I mean with deeds, and not just words — then the treaty by itself will not help Ukraine.

Lesson 2: In international relations, size matters. The disparity between big and small countries is a fact of life. And a small country which cannot protect itself puts its sovereignty and its people at risk. Russia is vastly bigger than Ukraine and its armed forces are much more powerful than the Ukraine armed forces. Russia is a nuclear power. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons as part of the 1994 treaty.

Lesson 3: Something we have repeated many times — the (United Nations) Security Council cannot always act decisively to protect small countries.

Lesson 4: When squeezed between two big powers/blocs, a smaller country like Ukraine can become a pawn. The country caught in between can be sacrificed if the two contending powers/blocs decide to reach a wider accommodation with each other, trading off their various interests. This has happened frequently in history — for example, Poland. Smaller countries must always be aware of this.

Madam Speaker, I read what NMP (Nominated Member of Parliament) Laurence Lien said about the need for “a more positive narrative that is grounded in optimism”. I wish it were possible to agree with him. But at least from the foreign policy perspective (which has direct impact on domestic well-being of Singaporeans), that would require one to ignore the facts and stop being realistic and honest with the people of Singapore.

Everything may look fine on the surface. But does that mean that: Our size does not matter? The treaties which guarantee our sovereignty and survival will by themselves be enough? That we can ignore the reality that we exist on 720 square kilometres? And that we are quite at the mercy of international economic winds, competition, bilateral disputes, regional tensions and shifts in the strategic balance?

It is a harsh world, with rules which are often ignored by many countries, including the major powers. Success is not pre-ordained for any country, let alone a small city state. We ignore that at our peril.

One has to accept facts, reality and then calmly and rationally deal with them, and explain publicly the situation and the response.

Last week, I stopped over in Istanbul, on my way back to Singapore, from Iran. I met the Turkish Interior Minister. He hosted me to lunch, on the Bosphorus. As I looked out into the Bosphorus, the crisis in Ukraine (which is just across the waters from the Bosphorus and the Black Sea) kept going through my mind.

Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe: It has a population of 45 million. It has an armed force of 90,000 active personal with another one million reserve personnel. It had an elected President and Parliament. It was a functioning state, not a failed state. It was negotiating an economic agreement with the European Union. It has embassies all over the world, including Singapore.

Yet it finds itself in deep crisis: Its political system in limbo, foreign troops on its soil, it faces the serious risk of dismemberment, its economy seriously affected, its reserves running low.

I could not help but then think of our own situation.

If we do not constantly run hard to make sure that everything works, that we out-compete the world, that we can defend ourselves — how long will it take for our situation to unravel?

Mr Lien also said that we should trust our people. That I have no quarrel with — I entirely agree with him.

But we also have a duty to be honest with our people and tell it like it is; not sugar-coat the truth. It is best to be unvarnished about the truth.

Although the evolving geopolitical landscape has complicated our external environment, the key tenets of our diplomacy have served and will continue to serve us well.

Even though we are a small nation, we must be able to speak up on global issues which affect our national interests, for example, allowing a country and its people to determine its own future free of external force or influence.

Singapore’s continued prosperity is contingent on its security.

Foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy, and requires the backing of all Singaporeans, as well as a strong and dedicated Foreign Service that is skilful and nimble enough to address new challenges and seize emerging opportunities.

This is vital for the safeguarding of and advancing Singapore’s interests.

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