Voters’ choice showed their pragmatic side

The electoral victory by the People’s Action Party’s (PAP) Murali Pillai in Saturday’s by-election in Bukit Batok did not come as a surprise. Mr Murali won 61.2 per cent of the votes, defeating Singapore Democratic Party’s (SDP) Chee Soon Juan in a straight fight.

Yet, after a nine-day campaign, the electoral outcome had not been a foregone conclusion, notwithstanding the ruling party’s resounding General Election victory margin in the constituency just eight months ago. Then, in a three-way fight, the PAP’s David Ong won with 73.02 per cent of the vote, before he resigned in March over an alleged extramarital affair.

The 11.8 per cent drop in vote share for the PAP may seem large, but this can be attributed to several factors.

First, the so-called by-election effect, where voters tend to be more inclined to vote for the opposition knowing that it would not change the government of the day. For instance, in the last by-election held in Punggol East in 2013, the Workers’ Party candidate Lee Li Lian won 54.5 per cent of the vote, a 13.49 per cent improvement over her performance in the same constituency in the 2011 General Election. That by-election was called following the resignation of PAP Member of Parliament Michael Palmer, also over an extramarital affair.

Second, there was no SG50 and the Lee Kuan Yew dividend at play this time round. These were factors that had helped propel the PAP to an unexpected landslide win in last September’s General Election. The SDP also fielded a much stronger candidate in Dr Chee, compared to an unknown at the 2015 General Election.

Putting these aside, Mr Murali turned in a strong performance, maintaining what I regard as the true level of support for the PAP in Bukit Batok. Mr Murali also made history by making it the first PAP by-election win in a single-member seat since 1979. His party had lost in all single-seat by-elections since 1979: 1981 (Anson), 2012 (Hougang), and 2013 (Punggol East).

What featured more on voters’ minds this time round were clearly municipal and, to a certain extent, bread and butter issues.

Third, race could also have been a factor. During the by-election campaign, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had called for voters to base their choice on the candidate’s “ability to contribute, his sincerity, his commitment and the colour of his heart — which is red — regardless of what race or religion he may belong to”. But Mr Lee noted that it was not unknown for racial sentiments to emerge and be exploited during election campaigns.

Yet, it also says something that a heartland constituency with almost three quarters Chinese and 13 per cent Malay residents voted for Mr Murali as their representative in Parliament. Mr Murali is also the first minority race PAP MP elected in a single seat by-election since 1979.

Clearly, while race may be a factor for some residents, it is unlikely to have been a significant cause for the PAP’s weaker performance this time.

WHAT NEXT FOR CHEE?

For Dr Chee, the Bukit Batok by-election was his best opportunity to be elected, after four previous unsuccessful attempts stretching back to 1992. Indeed, the 38.8 per cent of votes he secured in Bukit Batok was the best electoral performance of his political career.

Both Mr Murali and Dr Chee campaigned with zeal in the lead-up to the by-election.

Campaign strategy was, of course, crucial. The party that read and responded to the sentiments of the electorate reaped better dividends at the ballot boxes. Crucially, the intense electoral contest boiled down to the party’s track record, trust, and the individual qualities of the candidate.

Except at the 1988 and 1991 General Elections, the PAP has had a strong record in Bukit Batok since it was created in 1972. It was absorbed into Bukit Timah GRC for the 1997 General Election and between 2001 and 2015, it was part of Jurong GRC helmed by Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam.

The PAP kept the by-election to one that emphasised local issues. To that end, the PAP’s track record provided the assurance of “business as usual” should Mr Murali be given the mandate. Coupled with Mr Murali’s 16-year-long association with Bukit Batok, voters thought it imprudent to make an unforced change when there were no pressing issues or major unhappiness. Voters signified that change for change’s sake was not only naive, but foolish.

On his part, Mr Murali showed his nous in not only sensing the concerns of voters, but also in addressing them.

With an ageing and heartlander middle-class electorate, Mr Murali is fully cognisant that social programmes, especially at the municipal level, are very much what residents are concerned about. It was about developing a plan that keeps up with the evolving expectations and needs of residents. This is an area that offers candidates fertile terrain to reach out and appeal to voters, and to showcase their plans.

Mr Murali’s particular focus on social programmes, such as a proposed health cooperative, job placement scheme, and youth mentoring programme, reminded voters of the PAP’s superior track record and ability to deliver on its electoral promises. This was a stronger vote-puller than most other issues.

Backed by the PAP’s record of competent town council management and bolstered by the PAP’s decided leftward shift in public policy to help more Singaporeans, Bukit Batok voters voted for continuity and certainty. Mr Murali’s long association with Bukit Batok also helped to persuade voters that he was not a fair-weather politician. For Dr Chee, this was the fifth constituency that he had contested in as many elections.

Voting for Dr Chee required that dramatic leap of faith that proved too much for voters who were concerned about his track record and individual qualities.

Dr Chee’s long list of promises ranging from making Bukit Batok the envy of Singapore, to an SDP-run town council that surpasses the performance of PAP town councils, while bold, raised questions of whether his plans and his promises were more form than substance, especially since he has no track record in town council management and had only started to work the ground in Bukit Batok when Mr Ong resigned in March this year.

Overall, Dr Chee’s “now is the time” campaign was not able to inspire the requisite levels of trust needed to nudge voters to vote for change. Dr Chee’s political redemption continues to be delayed.

This by-election may well still be defining for his controversial political career. His performance in Bukit Batok might indicate that his political career is far from over, after being in the political wilderness for almost a decade. Yet, despite the absence of one-off favourable conditions for the PAP as mentioned above, Dr Chee’s failure to poll the confidence-boosting 40 per cent against a much inexperienced opponent suggests that he still has much work to do in earning the trust and confidence of the electorate.

Will he now stay in and be committed to Bukit Batok as he has promised and serve residents there between now and the next election, or will he opportunistically look for a sixth constituency come the next election?

Overall, the Bukit Batok by-election showed the Singaporean voter at its best: Open-minded, discerning and pragmatic. It was also a timely reminder that at the end of the day, politics is about serving the needs and meeting the aspirations of Singaporeans.

Mr Murali focused his campaign on how he would serve residents, and went about the hustings with no grandstanding. Taken together, these helped him win against an opponent who campaigned with a much higher profile, rhetorical flourish, and dare.

Ultimately, Mr Murali won because he fought the by-election as one that was not about him or the PAP. He won by putting the residents at the centre.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Eugene K B Tan is associate professor of law at the Singapore Management University School of Law.