The world has decided who will be US President

When Americans head to the polls on Nov 8 to elect the next president of the United States, they effectively select the de facto president of the world. And, history suggests, whoever becomes the next resident of the White House — Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump — he or she will impact America’s image, and thus US influence, around the world.

Of the two principal presidential candidates, Mrs Clinton is the better known outside the US. Having served as US Secretary of State from 2009 to early 2013, Mrs Clinton enjoys the confidence of many in both Europe and Asia to do the right thing in world affairs, according to a recent survey of 15 nations by the Pew Research Center.

Majorities or pluralities in 12 of 14 European and Asian countries have faith in Mrs Clinton, including the Swedes, 83 per cent; Germans, 79 per cent; Australians, 70 per cent; Japanese, 70 per cent; and Canadians, 60 per cent. On the other hand, views of Mrs Clinton among the Chinese are much more divided, with 37 per cent saying they have confidence in her, 35 per cent saying they do not have confidence and 28 per cent with no opinion. And Mrs Clinton is still little known in India, where a majority, 56 per cent, voices no opinion about her ability to act on world affairs.

Views of real estate magnate Mr Trump are a different story. Less than a quarter of people across all 15 countries surveyed in 2016 express confidence in his ability to do the right thing regarding international affairs.

In fact, overwhelming majorities in most of the societies surveyed have little or no confidence in Mr Trump. This includes 92 per cent of Swedes, 89 per cent of Germans, 88 per cent of Dutch and 85 per cent of both the French and British. Most Australians at 87 per cent as well as Japanese, 82 per cent, and Canadians, 80 per cent, also lack faith in Mr Trump.

People in Asia’s two most populated nations have little knowledge of the Republican candidate. In China, there is a split between those who have no confidence in Mr Trump, 40 per cent, and those who do not offer an opinion, 39 per cent. In India, 67 per cent offer no opinion.

The candidate who heads to the White House in January, whether Mr Trump or Mrs Clinton, faces the daunting challenge of comparison with Mr Barack Obama, who is leaving office enjoying widespread public confidence in his conduct of foreign affairs. In Europe, majorities in nine of 10 countries surveyed this year trust the outgoing president’s ability to handle international issues, including 93 per cent in Sweden and 91 per cent in the Netherlands. Only the Greeks regard Mr Obama unfavourably, with 58 per cent expressing little or no confidence in him.

Mr Obama has fewer fans in Asia, but is still popular: Seventy-eight per cent in Japan, 58 per cent in India and 52 per cent in China voice faith in Mr Obama’s record on the world stage.

History suggests that foreign confidence in US presidential leadership can be a consequence of the triumph of hope over experience. In 2008 in Europe, in the wake of the Iraq War and other issues that put Washington at loggerheads with other countries, trust in then-President George W Bush had fallen to 16 per cent in the United Kingdom, 14 per cent in Germany and 13 per cent in France, according to a Pew Research Center survey. In 2009, soon after Mr Obama had been elected, but before he had been tested by events, 93 per cent of the Germans expressed confidence in the new US President, and 91 per cent of the French and 86 per cent of the British agreed.

America’s choice can influence foreign judgment of the US, and in countries surveyed, majorities or pluralities said Mr Obama’s election led them to have a more favourable view of the US. Again, Western Europe and especially France, 93 per cent more favourable, and Germany, 91 per cent, stood out in this regard, but also 77 per cent of Japanese and Brazilians, 73 per cent of Indonesians and 47 per cent of Chinese expressed the view that the election had buoyed their view of the US.

The outcome of the 2004 American election had the opposite effect. A 2005 Pew Research Center survey found that after the re-election of Mr Bush, in not one of 15 countries surveyed did a majority or plurality report that his re-election led them to holding a more favourable view of the US. In Germany, France and Canada, roughly three in four respondents said the election’s outcome caused them to have a less positive opinion of Uncle Sam. This may reflect waning support for the Iraq War among those nations that had joined the US invasion and growing opposition to the US-led war on terrorism.

On the eve of the 2016 election, majorities in 13 out of 15 countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center have positive views of the US. America receives its highest ratings from the Poles, 74 per cent; Italians, 72 per cent; Japanese, 72 per cent; and Swedes, 69 per cent. The survey shows that the US also enjoys support from Indians at 56 per cent and Chinese at 50 per cent.

Whether international views of the US change in the wake of the upcoming election may depend on whom voters choose and foreigners’ expectations of that incoming president.

In 2009, in 15 of 24 countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center, not including the US, majorities or pluralities assumed that Mr Obama would not act unilaterally and would consider the interests of countries like theirs when making foreign policy decisions. In 16 of the nations surveyed, public opinion leaned towards the view that Mr Obama would be fair in dealing with the Israelis and the Palestinians. And in 19 nations, majorities or pluralities expected the US under Mr Obama to take significant measures to control global climate change.

But by 2012, in 14 of the same countries surveyed again, a median of 58 per cent said Mr Obama had acted unilaterally, 60 per cent said he was not fair in dealing with the Israeli-Palestinian situation and 62 per cent suggested that he had failed to take significant steps on climate change.

This reversal in sentiment is a reminder that foreigners can have unrealistic expectations of American presidents. And their disappointment when their expectations are not realised may affect views of both the presidency and the country.

Between early 2009, during Mr Obama’s honeymoon period, and 2012, international approval of his international policies fell significantly in Europe, Muslim countries, Russia, China, Japan and Mexico. In the same period, favourable views of the US declined in Germany, Britain, France, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon and Mexico.

Without a vote in the US presidential election, foreigners look on the American electoral process with a mixture of hopefulness and anxiety.

The process to date has not proved encouraging. Three-quarters of Australians and nearly seven in 10 Canadians, among the foreigners who arguably may follow the US election the most closely, have a negative impression of the 2016 US presidential campaign.

They know that Americans’ decision will affect their lives in ways they cannot control. They know Mr Trump less well than Mrs Clinton and have greater confidence in her than in him. So non-Americans hope for the best, and history suggests they can be disappointed. Both their expectations and likely disappointments will affect the next US president’s ability to lead the world. YALE GLOBAL

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Bruce Stokes is director of global economic attitudes at the Pew Research Center.