Young voters as kingmakers?

Malaysia’s 13th general election has been touted as the closest-ever race since independence, and a key group likely to have a significant influence on the outcome is the young voters.

The coalition that can garner their support is likely to make major inroads in several of the frontline states, and young voters may well emerge as kingmakers.

Election Commission figures show that 70 per cent of the 4.2 million unregistered voters are between the ages of 21 and 40. About 450,000 Malaysians turn 21 each year, the eligible voting age. In 2008, the young voters played a crucial role in the vote swing towards the opposition.

A recent survey, conducted by the University of Malaya Centre of Democracy and Election, showed that 48 per cent of first-time voters have yet to decide which party to vote for. Given that this survey showed a slim difference in support for the Barisan Nasional (BN) (42 per cent) and the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) (37 per cent), these fence sitters will be crucial in determining the election outcome.

Against this backdrop, both the BN and the PR have stepped up efforts to win over the youth vote through a series of measures and policies.

For instance in December, the BN government provided a RM200 (S$81) rebate for mobile phones costing less than RM500. More recently, the government engaged popular Korean singer Psy to perform at the Chinese New Year celebrations in the opposition-ruled state of Penang. BN leaders assumed the craze for Korean dramas and K-pop stars would sway some youths to vote for the party.

The PR too has targeted young voters with a series of populist policies; proposals include the offer of free education, slashing the prices of cars, implementing a higher minimum wage and moderating home prices.

The fact that both the BN and the PR are fielding younger candidates further attests to the growing importance of the youth vote.

YOUTH’S POLITICAL VIEWS

The Asia Foundation’s National Youth Survey 2012 provides some interesting insights into the political thinking of young Malaysians.

Many are less likely to view politics through a religious and racial lens. More than 71 per cent of the young voters indicated their preference for political parties that are multiracial and hence represent the interests of all Malaysians regardless of ethnicity or religion.

These youths are also likely to be more concerned with the general economic situation, such as employment, inflation and the state of security. Most (about 60 per cent) feel that the current government has been relatively successful in addressing these concerns. An increasing number of youths are also concerned about issues of corruption and cronyism.

Given such political attitudes and thinking, several deductions can be made about their potential voting behaviour. Firstly, the PR’s more multiracial approach to politics is likely to resonate with youths. Conversely, the strategy employed by UMNO, to warn Malay voters of the impending “threat” from the country’s ethnic minority should the PR take power, might actually backfire.

Secondly, the government’s lack of significant success in eradicating corruption and cronyism within the political system is likely to cost the BN some youth votes.

Thirdly, youths might still vote for the BN even if they are unhappy with aspects of its governance, in the belief that, the current government is still the better bet in ensuring the continued economic well-being and societal harmony of the country.

TIPPING THE BALANCE?

In keenly-contested frontline states such as Selangor, Kedah, Negeri Sembilan and Perak, the youth vote will be crucial in determining the winner.

In Selangor, where the BN has spared no effort to topple the PR-led state government, more than 600,000 new voters have been registered, most of whom are presumably young. In Negeri Sembilan, where the PR needs only four seats to obtain a simple majority, the youth vote will be crucial.

It would be exaggerating to say the youth vote alone would determine the polls outcome. Nonetheless, should a vast majority of youths as well as Malaysian Chinese voters converge to vote for the opposition, the BN could conceivably lose power for the first time.

So, in the final stages leading up to May 5, expect both sides to push hard for the youth vote.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Mohamed Nawab Mohamed Osman is a Research Fellow with the Malaysia Programme and Contemporary Islam Programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. This is the fifth of a six-part series by RSIS commentators on the Malaysian general election.