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A key question as S’pore votes: Will the next PM emerge?

As Singaporeans head into the 12th General Election (GE) since independence, issues such as living costs, immigration and town council management have inevitably dominated the hustings.

Current PM Lee Hsien Loong and former PMs the late Mr Lee Kuan Yew and ESM Goh Chok Tong at an event at the Istana in 2012. All eyes are also on the emergence of the country’s next Prime Minister, and the person could very well be making his inaugural appearance in the political arena this election. TODAY File Photo

Current PM Lee Hsien Loong and former PMs the late Mr Lee Kuan Yew and ESM Goh Chok Tong at an event at the Istana in 2012. All eyes are also on the emergence of the country’s next Prime Minister, and the person could very well be making his inaugural appearance in the political arena this election. TODAY File Photo

As Singaporeans head into the 12th General Election (GE) since independence, issues such as living costs, immigration and town council management have inevitably dominated the hustings.

But it is important to remember that the crux of this election, apart from the size of the mandate secured by the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), is the concomitant ascension of the next Prime Minister.

Gone are the days when the PAP faced minimal opposition and parliamentarians could expect to be re-elected unchallenged. Indeed, the Opposition made inroads in 2011 by winning a Group Representation Constituency and knocking out the PAP incumbent team led by then Foreign Minister George Yeo.

Overall, the PAP garnered 60.1 per cent of the popular vote — the lowest since independence — but retained 81 of 87 seats.

A PAP return to power is expected in GE 2015, but political pundits are wondering — can the Opposition increase its presence in the reorganised 89-member Parliament? And will the PAP garner more than three-fifths of the popular vote?

But beyond these questions, the elections will be viewed as critical for the scheduled renewal of the country’s political leadership.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has repeatedly framed the upcoming polls as one where leadership renewal is the most important issue. He said it at the May Day rally, and again in his National Day Rally speech last month where he said: “You will be deciding who is governing Singapore for the next five years; but more than that. You will be choosing the team who will be working with you for the next 15 to 20 years.”

While it could be said that every election is about choosing future leaders, there is greater urgency this time round as the current leadership team is ageing.

In particular, all eyes are also on the emergence of the country’s next Prime Minister, and he could very well be making his inaugural appearance in the political arena this election.

The optimal PAP model is for the ruling party-appointed PM to assume the mantle in their late 40s to early 50s. This assumes, all else being equal, that the individual will have the zest and energy to win three subsequent elections — a period of about 12 to 18 years — and set conditions for Singapore’s continued success. The former PM can then serve as an elder statesman and party stalwart upon stepping down.

Singapore’s second Prime Minister, Mr Goh Chok Tong, took on the post at the age of 48 in November 1990. He served as PM for 13 years during which he led the PAP to electoral victories in 1991, 1997 and 2001. He was succeeded by Mr Lee in August 2004, who was 52 then. Mr Lee has been in office for 11 years and was successful in GE 2006 and 2011.

Now 63, Mr Lee has said on a number of occasions that he would like to relinquish power before he turns 70. He still has seven more years to find his successor, who should ideally already be in Parliament or at the very latest, waiting to be elected for the first time this GE, to have enough time to learn the ropes.

No one has been identified so far. A quick scan along the current political bench shows capable individuals, but no “first among equals” as yet. The Cabinet is also ageing, where only six of 19 ministers are below the age of 53. Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew’s decision not to stand for re-election also removes a well-rounded candidate who was appointed in heavyweight portfolios such as transport and defence.

SHORT RUNWAY

PM Lee is expected to reshuffle the Cabinet post-election by easing out his third-generation peers to test the younger ministers. One or two of the “old guard” could then take on the role of “senior minister” and provide a guiding presence as the PAP prepares for generational transition.

Although there are no stipulated prerequisites, it will be surprising if the next PM does not hold the post of Deputy PM and at least one of the more important portfolios within the hierarchy of ministries.

If leadership transition takes shape before the next GE in 2020, around 2018-19, this gives him three to four years in a new ministry, a chance to raise his public profile at home and abroad, and enhance his chances of being elected when a new political mandate is sought in 2020.

With Environment and Water Resources Minister Vivian Balakrishnan and Education Minister Heng Swee Keat both at the upper age range of 54, the list of probable candidates in the incumbent batch includes: Social and Family Development Minister Tan Chuan-Jin, 46; Labour Chief Chan Chun Sing, 46; and Culture, Communication and Youth Minister Lawrence Wong, 42.

However, all three are still relatively inexperienced having entered elected office only in 2011.

The pool of candidates for PM could swell to seven if leadership transition takes place post-2020. It will include four high profile candidates for GE 2015 — former chief of Defence Force Ng Chee Meng, 47; former Second Permanent Secretary for Trade and Industry Chee Hong Tat, 41; director of Group Strategy at Keppel Corporation Ong Ye Kung, 45; and former Assistant Commissioner of Police Melvin Yong, 43.

While it is unclear who the next PM might be, it is clear that the individual will not have the benefit of having the same lead-in time as his predecessors did. Mr Goh had 14 years and Mr Lee Hsien Loong had two decades of experience in politics before becoming PM in 1990 and 2004, respectively.

These foundational periods were crucial for the respective PMs to cement their individual reputations and cultivate trust among the national electorate, the party cadre, leaders in neighbouring states, and governments of key international partners.

As Singaporeans head to the ballot box on Friday, there are certainly difficult choices to make as voters weigh the need for political pluralism, representation, ability and experience.

Certain electorates will have an even greater burden as they could very well determine Singapore’s key political leaders for the next 25 years.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Dr Samuel Chan, a Singaporean, is an adjunct lecturer with the University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy.

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