Fertility rate ‘can be lower but immigration is needed’

SINGAPORE — The Republic may not need a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 to counter the economic and social implications of an ageing and shrinking population, a sociologist has argued but doing this means a certain level of immigration will be needed.

Professor Wolfgang Lutz, an expert on family demography, fertility analysis and population projection, contends that the optimal TFR for the Republic is around 1.7.

His hypothesis is premised on a certain level of immigration, something which he conceded required a “cautionary attitude” to ensure migrants are actively integrated and there is harmony between the migrant and native population.

“As long as this is assured, I think immigration is a good thing and can contribute to the well-being of the migrant and native population,” he said.

Prof Lutz did not, however, elaborate on what level of immigration was needed.

Another factor which could make a TFR of 1.7 viable, he added, is that seniors in the future will be less dependent than the retirees now given that they are more educated — which means better jobs — and will be in better health due to advancements in medical technology.

And with life expectancy improving, they can also retire later, which will mitigate the problem of a shrinking workforce, he said.

“(A TFR of 2.1) is a highly artificial number because it comes out of a specific demographic model under very long-term conditions, in the absence of changes to mortality, no migration,” said the Founding Director of the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Human Capital at a seminar held at the National University of Singapore (NUS) yesterday.

The Government’s recent White Paper on Population projected an aggressive projection, to enable planners to prepare for the worst and avoid the under-provision of infrastructure and land space.

This factors in the immigration needed to augment the shortfall in the workforce resulting from the Republic’s shrinking population as well as to achieve continued growth in the economy.

Last month, the Government also introduced an enhanced S$2 billion Marriage and Parenthood Package, which hopes to nudge Singapore’s total fertility rate from 1.2 to 1.5.

On increased life expectancy, Prof Lutz noted that the old age dependency ratio, as it is currently measured, only considers age, without taking into account education or productivity levels.

The ratio is derived by dividing the number of those aged over 64 by the number of people aged between 20 and 64 — who are assumed to be working adults.

He said the definition of old age dependents should be changed to those 15 years away from the life expectancy of the population.