Getting the right mix of 6.9 million people

SINGAPORE — The Republic could have a population of 6.5 million to 6.9 million by 2030, according to the Government’s much-anticipated population White Paper released yesterday.

This could comprise 3.6 million to 3.8 million citizens, 0.5 million to 0.6 million permanent residents and 2.3 million to 2.5 million non-residents.

By then, Singapore could also see its total workforce and economy growing more slowly, with the aim of quality growth in lieu of the higher pace of growth in the past. Two in three Singaporeans would hold a PMET (professionals, managers, executives or technicians) job, with those in non-PMET positions supporting the former in high-value economic activities.

Today, Singapore’s population is 5.31 million, comprising 3.29 million citizens, 0.53 million permanent residents and 1.49 million non-residents.

The White Paper marks the first time a comprehensive growth plan has been charted to “strike the best balance” in population policy, said Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean yesterday as he helmed a media conference with six other Cabinet Ministers.

The Government had started out with three objectives in mind — encouraging marriage and parenthood, creating good jobs and maintaining a quality living environment — before looking at the population needed to achieve them, aiming for a “fine balance” while at it, Mr Teo stressed.

Efforts to maintain a Singaporean core centre around encouraging locals to marry and start families, via measures such as the Marriage and Parenthood Package, which was enhanced last week.

But to prevent the citizen population from shrinking — a reality from 2025 at the current fertility rate of about 1.2 — between 15,000 and 25,000 new citizens will be added to the ranks each year. The number of new citizens will be reviewed based on the quality of applicants, Singapore’s birth rates and changing needs, the paper stated.

The second pillar of creating good jobs for Singaporeans is in keeping with an increasingly educated workforce, and the number of those in PMET jobs will increase to 1.25 million from the 850,000 today.

Apart from upskilling and ensuring a high labour force participation rate among citizens, foreigners will play a role in taking up lower-skilled jobs, helping to kick-start high value-added sectors and providing flexibility to business during economic upswings and downturns.

The economy needs to grow in order to support the aspirations of Singaporeans, and the Government will strive for a “sustainable and achievable” balance, said Second Minister for Trade and Industry S Iswaran. The economy will undergo transformation going forward as new sectors and opportunities — in urban solutions, perhaps — emerge on the back of Asia’s rise, he said.

Quality of life a top priority

And to ensure a quality living environment, the Government will make sure that the transport, housing, and healthcare infrastructure are in place, even as more parks and green spaces are provided.

To this end, one “key approach” is the decision to invest ahead of demand, said National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan.

By 2030, 700,000 new homes will come onstream, adding to over 1.2 million homes here presently. Of these, 200,000 homes are already being built, he said.

New towns in Bidadari and Tengah will be built, and existing towns, such as Punggol, will expand.

Mr Khaw also mooted the option of building on Bukit Brown cemetery due to its central location.

One approach is to preserve the cemetery, but “I think we should make use of that very valuable piece of land to house more Singaporeans”, he said, citing strong demand from Singaporeans to live near the city.

More details will be released in the Land Use Plan on Thursday.

Should Singapore’s population grow to 6.9 million, its density would increase by about 18 per cent to 13,000 people per square kilometre. Mr Teo noted that this is below the density of cities such as Hong Kong, whose population density in developable areas is 22,700 per square km.

Mr Khaw said there is no intention to reach a density like Hong Kong’s as Singapore does not have a hinterland for its people to retreat to, unlike many other major global cities.

A high quality of living is a “top priority” for the Government, with former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew paving the way towards sustainable living and a garden city “because he knew this is the only way for us to survive”, said Mr Khaw.

“This is the only place we have and this city is our home. If it’s polluted, if it’s dirty, if it’s crowded, if it’s congested, then what kind of life will we get? So, that will always be the underpinning principle for our planning,” he said. “We’ll try to achieve that. And it’s possible, given time.”

The White Paper will be debated in Parliament next week and writing on Facebook yesterday, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urged Singaporeans to read it.

“Our goal is simple: To ensure Singapore continues thriving, for the sake of our younger generation. But our population challenges are difficult and complex,” he wrote.

“It is not just the headline number which matters, but getting the right mix of citizens and PRs, creating exciting opportunities for our people, and building a city that offers a high quality of life and a nation that is the best home for all of us.”