Weather forecast: Hot, dry, possibly hazy

SINGAPORE — Amid predictions by experts in some countries that El Nino in the coming months could wreak as much havoc as it did in 1997, the weatherman today (June 26) forecasts that Singapore, along with the region, would be drier and warmer than usual until September or early October.

The lower rainfall this month looks set to continue into July, with total rainfall expected to be 15 to 45 per cent lower than the long term average for the month, the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) said today.

This is “partly due to the prevailing moderate El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are likely to further develop in the months ahead”, it added.

El Nino, which comes along every two to seven years, is the abnormal warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can potentially wreak havoc with weather conditions. In the case of South-east Asia, it can lead to prolonged drier and warmer weather.

In 1997, when the El Nino effect was the strongest on record, Singapore experienced one of the lowest annual rainfalls. The Southwest Monsoon season — June to September — that year saw a “sharp” 53 per cent drop in rain.

MSS had said last month, in response to TODAY’s queries, that with several Pacific Rim countries declaring that El Nino is here, there is a 60 to 70 per cent chance of Singapore experiencing weak El Nino conditions in the coming weeks.

It noted in its press release today that most models from the major global climate centres project “a high likelihood that the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures would continue to warm over the coming months and possibly reach strong El Nino levels”.

But the MSS said the relationship between the strength of the El Nino and the impact on rainfall is not straightforward as there are other factors affecting local and regional rainfall patterns.

Still, national water agency PUB urged the community and businesses to conserve water in preparation for drier months ahead, noting that reservoir stock levels could be affected.

The drier and warmer weather in the region, exacerbated by the prevailing El Nino conditions, may also result in an escalation of hotspot activities, warned the MSS, adding that sporadic hotspot activities with localised smoke plumes have been observed in Sumatra in recent days.

The Inter-Agency Haze Task Force is coordinating the agencies’ respective action plans in preparation for haze and MSS will continue to monitor the regional weather and haze situation, it said.

The effects of El Nino can already be felt this month with MSS recording fewer rain days. The total rainfall up until Thursday, was 38 per cent below the long-term average.

The average daily maximum and minimum temperatures during the same period were also higher — 31.9°C and 26.5°C, about 0.6°C and 1.7°C above the long-term average, respectively.

On Tuesday, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warned that the El Nino developing across the Pacific has strengthened further, highlighting patterns shown by the data that are similar to the record 1997 to 1998 event, reported Bloomberg.

The Bureau, however, hastened to add that it is not possible at this stage to determine how intense it will be, and that an El Nino’s strength does not always correspond to its impact.

While India experienced a wetter-than-normal June, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology predicts a “large-scale reduction” during the first half of July, which has sparked fears that this might disrupt and stunt growth of rice, cotton and soybeans, Bloomberg reported.

“If the prediction of weak rains proves correct, there’s going to be an adverse impact on the economy as a whole, more so on agriculture,” said Professor Shashanka Bhide, director of the Madras Institute of Development Studies.

The last occurrence of El Nino in 2009 had brought the worst drought in four decades to India, cutting rice output and driving up sugar prices.

For Singapore, total rainfall over the June to September period in 2009 was about 20 per cent below the long-term average, and the average daily temperature for the same period was 1.1°C higher than the long-term average of 27.4°C.