Hope we do not reach 6.9 million: Minister Khaw

SINGAPORE — The Government hopes that the country does not reach the population estimate of 6.9 million by 2030, National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan said in a blog post yesterday.

Stressing that the White Paper on population that was released on Tuesday was “not a forecast or a target”, Mr Khaw said it “simply states the assumptions going forward, based on certain set of productivity and workforce growth rates”.

For planning purposes, however, Mr Khaw said “it is safer to take the more aggressive projection” and plan infrastructural needs accordingly. “This way we will not be caught under-providing, as we are experiencing currently,” he added.

Reiterating that the 6.9 million figure should be viewed as “the worst-case scenario”, Mr Khaw wrote: “We hope we do not reach that figure; we may never reach that figure. But as planners, we have to ensure that the infrastructure could accommodate such a figure, if need be. Our hope is that the actual figure would turn out to be much lower.”

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said yesterday he fully agrees with Mr Khaw’s explanation that a 6.9 million population is not a target, but just a worst-case, aggressive scenario the Government must prepare for.

In a Facebook post, Mr Lee said the Government needs to plan consciously and responsibly for the future, so that Singaporeans can continue to enjoy a good quality of life and that Singapore continues to thrive.

Many Singaporeans had reacted with surprise at the population projection contained in the White Paper, with several wondering whether the country can cope with the 30-per-cent increase.

Yesterday, three Opposition parties — the Democratic Progressive Party, the National Solidarity Party and the Reform Party — criticised the White Paper and questioned some assumptions behind the population projection.

On Monday, Parliament will debate the Government’s White Paper and the National Development Ministry’s Land Use Plan, which details how a 6.9 million population will fit. Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean will ask the House to endorse the two papers.

While the two papers contained “many pages, many statistics”, Mr Khaw said they are not just about numbers, but rather about striving for a “quality living environment” in Singapore’s next phase of development.

That is why the reports are published, as the demographic challenges of a shrinking and ageing population confronting Singapore “are severe”, said Mr Khaw. “If they are not dealt with properly, our children will suffer. We cannot simply pretend they do not exist. We cannot ignore them and pass the problem to the future generation for them to deal with. That will be irresponsible, and that is not our style,” he added.

Mr Khaw, however, noted that solutions “require long lead time to implement”. For example, an MRT line takes more than 10 years to build, he said.

But to build infrastructure ahead of demand, the Government needs some planning assumption, and “a key assumption” is the projected population size.

“Are you planning for five million, six million, or what? Actually, we cannot be sure. So many things can happen between now and 2030. But we still need to plan, and invest,” Mr Khaw said.

He added: “This is following the time-tested survival mantra: Prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. It is the only responsible thing to do.”