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Motor traders caught off-guard by ‘surprise’ COE results

SINGAPORE — The results of the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) bidding yesterday — the first since quotas were cut and cars were categorised based on engine power caps — caught traders off guard, with the policy changes having little impact on premiums for big and small cars.

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SINGAPORE — The results of the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) bidding yesterday — the first since quotas were cut and cars were categorised based on engine power caps — caught traders off guard, with the policy changes having little impact on premiums for big and small cars.

Premiums for small cars in Cat Adipped S$726 to S$71,564, after bigger declines were anticipated from the new classification, which pushes some luxury-car models into the big-car category.

Some traders said that this signalled that changes to the COE categorisation system did not work as, based on their experience, the first bidding exercise following major new rules usually reflected the full extent of impacts on premiums.

The lower Cat B premiums yesterday also came as a surprise, because it was the most affected by quota cuts. Instead, premiums registered the largest decline across the categories, falling S$3,700, or 4.68 per cent, to S$75,300.

In the Open category, where COEscan be used for any vehicle type but end up mainly for cars, premiums fell for the third straight round to S$77,003, down 2.29 per cent.

Commercial vehicle and motorcycle COE prices both increased, with the premium for two-wheelers continuing its climb to breach the S$3,000 mark for the first time in more than 16 years (since October 1997). It closed 12.83 per cent higher at S$3,051.

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) announced in September last year that under new COE categorisation rules, Cat A cars must not have engine power output exceeding 97 kilowatts (kW) — the equivalent of 130 brake horsepower — in addition to caps on engine capacities at 1,600cc. This was in response to sentiments that luxury-car makes were encroachingthe small cars category, and the LTA said the reclassification was intended to better ensure some element of social equity in car ownership. Over 41 models were pushed into Cat B as a result of the new categorisation system, leading to expectations that demand and, in turn, premiums for Cat A would drop.

That was why the “negligible drop” in Cat A prices most surprised traders.

Nissan Agent Tan Chong Motor’s General Manager Ron Lim said: “I think anticipation had been building in the market that there will be a bigger correction for Cat A with the reclassification setting in, but it didn’t pan out.”

Traders noted that the unexpected results could be due to car makers circumventing the new policy by rolling out new models. Mercedes, for instance, has the A180 with an engine power of 90kW.

“The dealers of these luxury makes have the firepower to secure COEs at higher bids. This could be one of the possibilities why the premiums in Cat A are not coming down,” said Mr Lim.

Singapore Vehicle Traders Association Honorary Secretary Raymond Tang also attributed the slight fall in Cat A prices to the lull the market usually experiences after the Chinese New Year festive period.

Traders also had not expected Cat B premiums to drop, after quotas were cut by 6 per cent for the period of February to April.

Mr Lim said the result goes against logic since certain luxury car dealers have orders up till August, according to him. “It’s surprising why they are not bidding for COE. The best guess is that their stock has not arrived, so there is no hurry for them to bid.”

Managing Director of CarTimes Eddie Loo, however, said the price fall reflected actual market trends since the majority of the market goes for cars in Cat A.

“The prices for most of the cars in Cat B can reach almost S$200,000. On top of this, there’s also the loan curbs, so the take-up rate won’t be as fantastic,” he said.

Dealers said they expect premiums to hover at the current levels, with Mr Tang pointing out that demand for small cars remained strong in the latest exercise — 719 bids, or almost double the 362 quota, were received.

Mr Loo added that with more cars up for deregistration — about 100,000 cars are due for scrapping from now till 2018 — demand will not taper.

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