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North Korea nuclear crisis could change region’s security balance, says PM Lee

SINGAPORE — The North Korean nuclear crisis is different this time not just due to the greater number of atomic weapons and tests Pyongyang has put on display, but also because of the longer term security implications it has set off in North-east Asia, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches the launch of a Hwasong-12 missile in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 16, 2017. Photo: KCNA via Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches the launch of a Hwasong-12 missile in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 16, 2017. Photo: KCNA via Reuters

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SINGAPORE — The North Korean nuclear crisis is different this time not just due to the greater number of atomic weapons and tests Pyongyang has put on display, but also because of the longer term security implications it has set off in North-east Asia, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said.

In a wide-ranging interview with business news outlet CNBC ahead of his official working visit to the United States from Saturday (Oct 21), Mr Lee was asked whether he was worried about the North’s recent series of missile and nuclear tests, and the simmering war of words between Pyongyang and Washington.

Mr Lee noted that North Korea’s brinkmanship over the nuclear issue is not new. But as the North advances its missile technology and escalates its threats, such as a recent warning that it could detonate a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean, countries like Japan and South Korea could be forced to consider some form of nuclear deterrent.

While such an outcome might still be “unthinkable” in some quarters, such as in Japan where anti-nuclear sentiments among the public are high, “these are thoughts which cannot be completely suppressed,” said the Prime Minister.

He added: “In fact, if it goes that way, and South Korea and Japan go closer to be in nuclear power or actually cross the threshold, it would mean a different strategic and security balance in North-east Asia.

“More risky, more tense, and the Chinese will be very alarmed. And I do not think it will make for a safer world. There will be implications elsewhere in the world.”

The North Korean issue will be high on the agenda when US President Donald Trump visits several Asian countries next month and attends a series of regional summits, including the US-Association of South-east Asian Nations summit and the East Asia summit in the Philippines, as well as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Vietnam.

Mr Lee noted that the Asean is focused on the North Korean issue, even if its influence on the matter is limited.

Asked if he agreed with comments by Mr Trump and others that Beijing should do more to contain Pyongyang’s provocations, Mr Lee said China has influence over the North and a major role to play in the issue. But at the same time, Beijing has “complex calculations to balance” while Pyongyang has its own motivations.

He told CNBC: “I would not say that the North Koreans will do anything that the Chinese want them to do. Big countries know that small countries can be quite obstreperous.

“At the same time, I think (the Chinese leaders) cannot be at all happy with the way things are going with nuclear tests and with missile tests. It must worry them a great deal.”

The North Korean issue came up during the interview alongside questions about the relationship between Singapore and China.

Despite the deep and substantive ties between the two countries, there were signs of diplomatic tensions between Singapore and China last year over the South China Sea territorial dispute, and the Republic’s long-standing relationship with Taipei.

Mr Lee told CNBC that Singapore’s current relations with China were “good ... forward looking ... (with) no basic conflicts in our perspectives”, even if both countries did not see eye to eye on some issues.

Reiterating Singapore’s position on the South China Sea dispute, the Prime Minister said the Republic is not a claimant state and does not take sides.

“But we do have an interest in freedom of navigation, in the rule of international law, in the peaceful resolution of dispute, and in ASEAN having a role in an issue which is important in our neighbourhood. I think that bears repeating,” added Mr Lee.

Some US$5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes the South China Sea every year. China claims most of the disputed waterway, where it has reclaimed islands and built military installations on them. But there are overlapping claims by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has invalidated Beijing’s claims in the waterway and found that Beijing had breached the Philippines’ sovereign rights there. China has disregarded the ruling.

On the suggestions in some quarters that Beijing will lean on Singapore as next year’s Asean chairman to win over the regional groping’s support on the South China Sea issue, Mr Lee stressed that Singapore would be an “honest broker” among the South-east Asian countries, not the “Commander-in-Chief”.

He added: “Unless all the countries go along and most of the countries agree, you cannot take an Asean position. That is all the more so in the case of the difficult issue like the South China Sea where the strategic interests of the different Asean countries are not entirely the same.”

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