Singapore’s foreign policy needs to be nimble, clinical as major power relations evolve in the region

SINGAPORE — The United States-China relationship will continue to be the central pillar of an emerging East Asian regional architecture and as the two major powers seek to arrive at a new modus vivendi, it is important for small states like Singapore to pursue a nimble and clinical foreign policy so as to maximise the country’s autonomy, said Mr Bilahari Kausikan, Ambassador-at-Large and Ministry of Foreign Affairs Policy Adviser today (July 3).

Speaking during a panel discussion on “Geopolitics: Preparing for Multipolarity”, Mr Kausikan and Dean of the School of International Studies in Peking University Professor Jia Qingguo both agreed that talk of a multipolar world was premature, as the US-China relationship would continue to define the strategic complexion of the region. The session was held in conjunction with a “Singapore at 50: What Lies Ahead” conference organised by the Institute of Policy Studies.

Mr Kausikan said that while the process of adjustment is taking place between the major powers, “the challenge for Singapore, as for all other countries in East Asia is to positon ourselves so as to preserve maximum autonomy and avoid being forced into invidious choices”.

In order for Singapore to be successful in this exercise, Mr Kausikan, the former permanent secretary of MFA, said that it was important for Singapore to do three things, namely: accurately understand the dynamics between Washington and Beijing, pursue the country’s interests in a nimble and nuanced manner, and maintain the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the regional architecture.

Prof Jia pointed out that although China has overtaken the US in GDP terms, the latter’s lead in political influence, scientific efficiency and military prowess is likely to remain significant for a long time.

Prof Jia said that Beijing is likely to avoid confrontation and enhance cooperation with Washington. “Those who advocate confrontation and conflict (with the US) are out of their minds,” he said.

The Dean also offered a glimpse into the Chinese foreign policy psyche, saying that Beijing often adopted “two identities on many fronts”, translating into a whole range of contradictions in diplomatic behaviour. He explained that China is simultaneously a developing and developed country; as well as a poor and rich country. It is also a strong country — in military terms — and weak country, in not wanting to be a target for international intervention.

He said that Beijing finds it increasingly difficult to define its interests and behave in a consistent way both internally and externally. All this is happening when the outside world is anxious to gauge China’s intentions.

“But the problem is that they (the outside world) are bound to be disappointed. The Chinese themselves do not know what they want in terms of a consensual way.”