S’pore exports fall at their worst pace in more than three years

SINGAPORE — Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) tumbled last month to their worst performance in more than three years, trailing forecasts as shipments to eight out of 10 of Singapore’s top markets slumped, with economists expecting prospects to remain weak amid lacklustre global demand.

NODX fell 15.6 per cent last month, compared with March a year ago, reversing from the revised 2 per cent expansion in February, said trade agency International Enterprise Singapore on Monday (April 18), worse than the 13.2 per cent fall economists in a Reuters poll had expected.

“This was the worst export performance since February 2013 … In our NODX report a month ago, we believed that the February gain then was just a one-month wonder, as it was mainly due to the low base in the same month a year ago. The medium-term trend for Singapore’s NODX performance is still a weak one and we are also expecting NODX to contract in next month’s report,” said UOB economist Francis Tan.

DBS economist Irvin Seah said: “It’s another disappointing outcome …  Amid the challenging global environment, such disappointment is becoming more of a norm than the exception.”

He said the weak data suggests manufacturing growth for the month may be just as disappointing. “Plainly, it seems like a downward revision in manufacturing, as well as the gross domestic product growth figures may be on the cards, judging from this set of export numbers. So brace yourself for more bad news ahead.”

Manufacturing activity in Singapore shrank for the ninth straight month in March, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index at 49.4 points, below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. Growth in the Singapore economy ground to a halt in the first quarter, advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry showed last Thursday.

As growth stalled, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased its policy last week, guiding the Singapore dollar to a zero appreciation stance against the currencies of its major trading partners. Economists said the move would help Singapore’s exports due to a weaker currency, but they added that a more sustained recovery will still depend on a rebound in global demand.

Last month, exports to eight out of the top 10 NODX markets fell, with the exceptions being Japan and Hong Kong. The top contributors to the decline were the European Union, China and Indonesia. Shipments to China, Singapore’s largest export destination, fell 14 per cent last month, accelerating from the 1.2 per cent ­decline in February, making it the ninth consecutive month of contraction. “The export outlook is further weighed down by the slowdown in China,” said Mr Seah. He also noted that the slowdown in China is structural in nature, suggesting “that the current NODX weakness may persist for a while”. 

Last month, shipments of electronic products contracted by 9.1 per cent, compared with the 0.7 per cent expansion in the previous month. The decline was largely due to the fall in exports of integrated circuits, personal computers and PC parts.  

Shipments of non-electronic products fell by 18 per cent, in contrast to the 2.6 per cent rise in the previous month. The plunge was led mainly by the fall in the exports of structures of ships and boats, pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals.