City can make Chelsea blink first

If Chelsea win, the Premier League title will firmly be within their grasp. Defeat to Manchester City, however, could blow the race wide open again. Stamford Bridge plays host to the biggest match of the season tonight and TODAY football analyst Adrian Clarke (sports [at] mediacorp.com.sg) picks out five key areas that could decide it.

TACTICAL BRAVERY FROM PELLEGRINI

No manager in world football is more adept at nullifying a rival than Jose Mourinho. His Premier League record in home games against City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham is incredible: Played 22, won 17, drawn five, lost none, scored 40, conceded five.

So Manuel Pellegrini might be wise to consider an unexpected tactical curveball. Would a narrow but adventurous 4-3-1-2 formation — with David Silva flitting behind two City forwards — give the Blues something different to think about? While they will miss the running power of Yaya Toure, three up front would be a handful.

Providing they are not reckless, an attacking mindset from the champions is their best hope of achieving a result. Bradford showed it is possible last weekend.

AN IMPORTANT CHELSEA TRIANGLE

Oscar, Willian and Branislav Ivanovic are not the most eye-catching names, but they can exploit glaring weaknesses on City’s left-hand side.

Holding midfielder Fernando has faded badly after a promising start at the Etihad, and aside from a towering Champions League display in Rome, the Brazilian has been ponderous, nervy and weak. The clever rotational movement of compatriots Oscar and Willian could be too much for him.

Martin Demichelis and Gael Clichy are the two others Chelsea will look to exploit.

DROGBA vs KOMPANY

I was licking my lips at the prospect of round two of Vincent Kompany’s slugfest with Chelsea bruiser Diego Costa (the Belgian leads their individual battle 1-0), so it is disappointing the Blues top scorer is suspended.

Mourinho will probably call up Didier Drogba and ask the ageing 36-year-old to absorb as much punishment as he can for Chelsea’s cause instead. The Ivorian is fresh and given this might be his last chance to make his mark in a match of this magnitude, his hunger will be intense. Drogba has scored a goal every 110 minutes this season too — a record that is almost twice as good as Robin van Persie’s.

Kompany is not in good form. He’s returned from injury looking rusty and leaden-footed. Recent history indicates Drogba is up against it. After bagging five goals in his first five outings against City, the Blues legend has not scored in the last nine meetings he has been involved in, and never when Kompany is played.

DISCIPLINE WILL BE CRITICAL

Arsenal committed just three fouls in their resolute 2-0 win at City a fortnight ago, and not one of them was inside their own defensive third. The champions would be wise to try and replicate that level of restraint at the Bridge tonight.

Why? Firstly, Pellegrini’s chasers are going through a terrible spell at defending set pieces. Without Toure, the side are also lacking the height they usually possess.

If anyone can punish teams at corners and free-kicks, it is Mourinho’s men. They have netted 11 from set pieces in the league this season, often from the cultured right boot of Cesc Fabregas. Even when they do not win the first header, they have made a habit of slamming home knockdowns too.

THE MATCH WINNERS

Watching Eden Hazard and Silva on song is a glorious footballing experience, and these two playmakers can have a massive influence on this game. If Nemanja Matic cannot cope with the Spaniard’s devilish movement and trickery, Chelsea will be in trouble. Silva’s link-up play with Sergio Aguero (who contributed to 38 percent of City’s league goals) needs stopping at source.

In the absence of Costa — and possibly Fabregas — all eyes will be on Hazard instead, where nine of his 13 goals have come at Stamford Bridge. The Belgian winger’s duel with Pablo Zabaleta could determine the game’s outcome.

Adrian Clarke is a former Arsenal midfielder who has played at every level of English football. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for publications around the world. Follow him on Twitter @adrianjclarke.

English Premier League on TV:

Today:

Hull City v Newcastle — Singtel TV Ch102 and StarHub TV Ch227, 8.45pm

Manchester United v Leicester — Singtel TV Ch102 and StarHub TV Ch227, 10.55pm

Liverpool v West Ham — Singtel TV Ch103 and StarHub TV Ch228, 10.55pm

West Brom v Tottenham — Singtel TV Ch104 and StarHub TV Ch229, 10.55pm

Crystal Palace v Everton — Singtel TV Ch105 and StarHub TV Ch230, 10.55pm

Stoke v QPR — Singtel TV Ch106 and StarHub TV Ch231, 10.55pm

Sunderland v Burnley — Singtel TV Ch107 and StarHub TV Ch232, 10.55pm

Sunday:

Chelsea v Manchester City — Singtel TV Ch102 and StarHub TV Ch227, 1.30am

Arsenal v Aston Villa — Singtel TV Ch102 and StarHub TV Ch227, 9.30pm

Monday:

Southampton v Swansea — Singtel TV Ch102 and StarHub TV Ch227, 12am