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The derby everyone’s waiting for

More than 650 million pairs of eyes will be watching Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola’s every move later today, as the world’s two most esteemed managers renew their fervid rivalry in one of the most highly anticipated Manchester derbies ever. Ahead of a potential classic, TODAY’s EPL analyst Adrian Clarke (sports [at] mediacorp.com.sg) explains how United and City have been transformed by their charismatic new bosses.

Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola. Photo: Getty Images

Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola. Photo: Getty Images

More than 650 million pairs of eyes will be watching Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola’s every move later today, as the world’s two most esteemed managers renew their fervid rivalry in one of the most highly anticipated Manchester derbies ever. Ahead of a potential classic, TODAY’s EPL analyst Adrian Clarke (sports [at] mediacorp.com.sg) explains how United and City have been transformed by their charismatic new bosses.

MANCHESTER CITY

 

A rapid mindset revolution

 

Nobody can accuse Pep Guardiola of being a time waster. In the space of just 68 days, the Spaniard has dramatically reshaped the way Manchester City’s players think about the game.

Asking them to wipe their career memory sticks of pre-programmed habits since walking through the door on July 5, he has forced his squad to absorb gallons of fresh, often entirely alien ideas.

This tactical metamorphosis could have gone spectacularly wrong, but the players’ response has been stunning, with five comprehensive wins in a row.

 

A modern twist on the WM

 

Arsenal’s legendary Herbert Chapman introduced a radical WM formation in the 1930s, and Guardiola has regurgitated it to suit the modern game.

When playing out from the back, you’ll see two fullbacks in central midfield, with Fernandinho dissecting the two centre-backs who go wide. This unusual ‘M’ shape stretches the pitch out (as the front five push on) but once in advanced areas, it also provides a firm structure that quells the threat of breakaways down the middle.

In attack, City’s ‘W’ shape means playmakers David Silva and Kevin de Bruyne are now box-to-box midfielders. On the ball, they make a stream of forward runs in support of the forward trio, but when possession is lost, they must shuttle back to help Fernandinho in a 4-1-4-1.

The idea is for City to enjoy far greater movement and variance inside the opposition half (with two attacking midfielders instead of one) while having the security of six players being behind the ball.

Watching it has been educational.

 

Numerous style tweaks

 

Wingers are used to having fullbacks flying around them on the overlap, but that’s now a rare sight at the Etihad.

Guardiola prefers his wide men to either be left alone in 1-v-1s, or for Silva and De Bruyne to be the ones creating overloads down the sides.

It’s suited the star men, and ensured City’s most talented players are the ones delivering crosses.

Pressing from the front is another non-negotiable tactic. The Spanish coach has trained his superstar forwards to close defenders down with discipline, and that’s the trigger for everyone behind them to squeeze the space. This approach has reenergised the team.

Pushing up does leave space in behind, which is a gamble, but providing the pressing is good enough, Guardiola figures accurate passes from opposition players are hard to pull off.

New keeper Claudio Bravo is handily quick off his line just in case there’s an emergency.

 

MANCHESTER UNITED

 

Power play is back

 

Jose Mourinho isn’t silly. He knew United fans cannot stomach another season of plodding pass-pass-pass football, so he’s revived a tempo that’s reminiscent of the dazzling Fergie years.

It’s still a work in progress, but the early signs show his team is already more powerful and efficient than they were under the banal Louis van Gaal. No one executed more than Manchester United’s 3,221 backward passes last term, but they’ve shaved over nine per cent off those safety-first choices in the first three games.

Under the previous regime, they also made on average of 47 passes per shot (placing them an embarrassing 15th in the most shots category) but under the Special One, fans are seeing an effort on goal every 30.46 passes instead. Only two clubs have had more shots.

It’s obvious a positive vibe has returned.

 

A focal point

 

Anthony Martial, Wayne Rooney and Marcus Rashford are all quality footballers that bring plenty to the table, but as target men, none are a patch on the man, the myth and the legend that is Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

When United’s defence and midfield look up to pick a pass, they now have the lanky Swede offering himself as an outlet, and he’s held the ball up wonderfully well.

This is vital for guys like Paul Pogba, Juan Mata, Wayne Rooney and Henrik Mkhitaryan. They now pass the ball forward and make a secondary run in full confidence the move won’t break down repeatedly.

Scoring a couple of towering headers - in the Community Shield and at home to Southampton - Zlatan also offers menace from crosses.

Prior to his arrival, unless Marouane Fellaini was playing, there was often no point delivering a cross (which may explain why United placed 15th for most accurate crosses in 2015-16), but by producing an impressive 4.66 pinpoint deliveries a game this season, United are now a massive threat in the air.

 

Standards have risen

 

Mourinho purchased four high-class players that were upgrades. Should we be surprised then they are hitting the target with almost double the amount of shots this season?

In defence Eric Bailly and Daley Blind share natural chemistry. In the middle of the park, Pogba is the strong creative type the team’s been crying out for. Out wide, Mkhitaryan offers skill and purposeful energy. Up top, Zlatan is Zlatan.

With team selection and tactics consistent, a balanced feel to the 4-2-3-1 formation, and simply better footballers on the field, United were bound to bounce back.

 

Score Prediction

 

Manchester United 2 Manchester City 1

 

Smoothly negotiating comfy starts under their new managers, neither team has been tested properly yet – and that’s what makes the timing of this encounter so fantastic. Who is closer to being the real deal? We will learn so much across the most eagerly awaited 90 minutes of the season so far.

My hunch is that United are slightly more at ease with their manager’s requirements. There is nothing too fancy about Mourinho’s tactical approach, and within that clear structure United’s star turns are thriving.

City look a million dollars, but their WM shape hasn’t had a stiff examination yet.

If United can turn defence into attack quickly, they may catch the fullbacks out of position and cause confusion. Another question mark: are Silva and De Bruyne reliable enough to track midfield runners from deep? This battle will test their resolve.

These are two sides very much on the up, but for now, I sense United are just ahead of the curve.

 

Big Match Prediction

 

Liverpool 1 Leicester City 2

 

I’m a Jurgen Klopp fan, but his failure to add three extra defensive players, a left back, a centre-back and a sitting midfielder, before the close of the window felt negligent to me.

His Reds are a joy to watch on the front foot, but familiar frailties have not been adequately addressed, and this may come back to haunt him tonight. If the champions click on the counter attack I’m not sure Liverpool will cope.

The hosts have no choice but to press forward looking for goals, and this may leave the door ajar for Jamie Vardy. With record signing Islam Slimani breathing down his neck for a start, I’m expecting the striker to be back to his insatiable best. He’ll also be smarting from his non-involvement for England.

This could and should be a thrilling contest, but I fancy the Foxes because they have the more disciplined defence.

 

LIVE ON TV:

TONIGHT:

Manchester United v Manchester City (SingTel Ch103 & StarHub Ch299; 7.30pm)

West Ham v Watford (Ch103 & Ch299; 9.55pm)

Stoke City v Tottenham (Ch104 & Ch230; 9.55pm)

Middlesbrough v Crystal Palace (Ch105 & Ch231; 9.55pm)

Burnley v Hull City (Ch106 & Ch232; 9.55pm)

Bournemouth v West Brom (Ch107 &Ch233; 9.55pm)

Arsenal v Southampton (Ch102 & Ch227; 10pm)

TOMORROW:

Liverpool v Leicester City (Ch103 & Ch299; 12.25am)

Swansea City v Chelsea (Ch102 & Ch227; 11pm)

 

 

 

 

About the author:

Adrian Clarke is a former Arsenal midfielder who has played at every level of the English game. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for TODAY and several well-known football websites. Follow him @adrianjclarke

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