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Your TFL primer, part 4: Help from the bookies

SINGAPORE — Bookmakers (the legit ones, that is, let's not go into illegal ones ...) live and die on whether they set odds right, covering themselves to avoid getting hit with heavy losses on any one outcome. It's all about probability.

SINGAPORE — Bookmakers (the legit ones, that is, let's not go into illegal ones ...) live and die on whether they set odds right, covering themselves to avoid getting hit with heavy losses on any one outcome. It's all about probability. What they might not have taken into account, resulting in odds that might be too high on any outcome, will see heavy betting on that probability by punters looking to cash in on any slip-up. The result, the odds on that outcome will drop. Basically, odds are a reflection of the combined confidence of the bookies and the bettors. I'm not encouraging you to rush out to Singapore Pools, as only one in 10 punters actually makes money off football betting in the long run, but you'd be foolish to ignore this great resource if you're trying to crack the TODAY Fantasy League (TFL) code and be able to smirk with quiet satisfaction in the office that you are, indeed, smarter than your boss (at least when it comes to football and numbers). We've two-and-a-half weeks to go before the 2013/2014 English Premier League season kicks off on Aug 17, and many bookmakers have already released published their odds online. The best place to start is BetBrain — http://tdy.sg/BetBrainEPL — a comprehensive aggregator of odds from a wide range of international bookmakers (the legal ones, of course). According to BetBrain (as of today, July 31, 2013), the shortest odds in gameweek 1 are on Chelsea at home to Hull at an average of 1.21, followed by Manchester City at home to Newcastle at an average of 1.30. The next three are Liverpool (home against Stoke) at 1.38, Arsenal (home to Aston Villa) at 1.39 and United (away at Swansea) at 1.73. Simply put: Chelsea and Man City are most likely to score bagfuls of goals and most likely to keep clean sheets, with Liverpool and Arsenal good bets too. The worst? Their opponents. So consider Chelsea's Eden Hazard (in scintillating form in pre-season, a joy to watch when I caught them in KL a week ago), Frank Lampard (back in favour with Jose Mourinho's return), Juan Mata (missed much of the Blues' friendlies, but a star performer last term). For City, you'll never know with their constant rotation and new manager in Manuel Pelligrini, but the usual suspects like Sergio Aguero and David Silva should be considered. We'll get a clearer picture the closer we get to the season kick-off on Aug 17. Oh, and whatever you do, don't pick Liverpool's Luis Suarez. You do know he's still suspended for the first six games of the season, don't you? Also, if you don't already know, there's no such thing as a "sure win", only probabilities. Even Chelsea lose games, and even odds of 30-to-1 come good every now and then (theoretically, once in every 30 games). So be prepared for upsets and bad weeks, but keep faith in numbers and science, at least in this game. YOUR TFL PRIMER Part 1: Watch the fixture list — http://tdy.sg/TFLprimer1 Part 2: Spotting the difference — http://tdy.sg/TFLprimer2 Part 3: Rotate the armband — http://tdy.sg/TFLprimer3 Part 4: Help from the bookies — http://tdy.sg/TFLprimer4 Part 5: Musical chairs at the big clubs — http://tdy.sg/TFLprimer5 TFL SCOUT REPORT Part 1: Goalkeepers — http://tdy.sg/TFLscout1 Part 2: Full-backs — http://tdy.sg/TFLscout2 Part 3: Centre-backs — http://tdy.sg/TFLscout3 Part 4: Midfielders — http://tdy.sg/TFLscout4 Part 5: Forwards — http://tdy.sg/TFLscout5 Click here to take part in the TODAY Fantasy League now — Manager of the Season wins US$5,000.

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