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Four reasons Leicester may choke in final stretch

They are leaving no margin for error

Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri celebrating with Jamie Vardy. The striker has remained a persistent threat but the team’s goals are not flowing the way they did previously. Photo: Reuters

Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri celebrating with Jamie Vardy. The striker has remained a persistent threat but the team’s goals are not flowing the way they did previously. Photo: Reuters

They are leaving no margin for error

The art of the 1-0 win is not to be underestimated.

Arsenal were so good at it, their fans created a song in its honour, while Alex Ferguson considers it the hallmark of a truly deserving title winner.

“I had a season at United where we had eight 1-0 victories and that won us the league,” he reflected. “Those 1-0s are really important because it points out to me that they are a unit, they’re not going to lose. They have a determination about them.”

While all that is undeniable, it is also true that Leicester are leaving themselves no margin for error in their pursuit of a first-ever league title.

It is now two months since they won a match by more than a single goal — the 3-1 victory at Manchester City on Feb 4 — with recent successes eked out courtesy of their well-organised defence rather than the attacking brio that tore sides to shreds before Christmas. To put it all into context, before Feb 4, Leicester were averaging 1.9 goals per game. Since then, it is 1.1 goals per game.

There is nothing wrong with winning a title this way, and Leicester were always unlikely to maintain the remarkable, free-scoring style that propelled them to the top in the first place, when goals were plundered at will through lightning-fast counter-attacks. Teams have wised up to that methodology, sitting deeper and denying the likes of Jamie Vardy space in which to run behind.

Leicester are having more possession — they have averaged 48.14 per cent of the ball since Feb 4, compared with 40.9 per cent before then — but the lack of goals suggests they are not exactly sure what to do with it. The caveat, of course, is that Leicester are still finding ways to win — usually through a moment of individual brilliance (think Shinji Okazaki’s overhead kick against Newcastle, or Riyad Mahrez at Watford) or sheer persistence (the last-gasp winner against Norwich).

But it is putting their defence under significant pressure, and also raises questions over whether they can sustain their charge if they were to concede first in a game. The last time that happened — against West Brom on March 1 — was also the last time they failed to win.

Jamie Vardy’s goals have dried up

It would be unfair to claim that Vardy’s form has collapsed in recent weeks. He has remained a persistent threat, helping create numerous chances and also scored two fine goals for England against Germany and Holland. But the goals are certainly not flowing as they once did. His last goal for Leicester was a penalty against Arsenal on Valentine’s Day.

Since then, 13 shots have been fired at goal to no avail — a decidedly troubling sequence for a man who had scored 15 goals in his first 20 games of the season.

The fact he has had just three shots in his past three games also suggests he is being kept away from the areas where he can do the most damage.

Leicester’s reliance on narrow victories in recent weeks owes much to Vardy’s loss of ruthlessness in front of goal. They need him to rediscover it as soon as possible.

They are riding their luck with referees

The conspiracy theorists who believe that Leicester are benefiting unduly from a surge of goodwill from across the football community were given further ammunition by their win over Southampton last weekend, when referee Michael Oliver decided that handballs by Danny Simpson, and Robert Huth in the area were not sufficient to award penalties.

Neither was clear-cut: Simpson’s arm was in front of his body and Huth was only a couple of yards away from Charlie Austin when the ball hit him on the hand.

But, equally, they were the sorts of calls that would probably have gone against Leicester when they were bottom of the table for much of last season.

Andy Townsend, the former Ireland midfielder turned pundit, went one further, suggesting the atmosphere may have subconsciously affected Oliver. “There were kids waving flags, they were practising using those clapper things, the stadium was buzzing from 40min before kick-off. How can you not be affected by that, even if you are a professional referee?” he said.

Leicester would not be the first title contender to enjoy this kind of advantage, but if the old adage holds true — and the luck does start to even out in the remaining weeks — they may be in for a rude awakening.

Ranieri is unproven as a title winner

Claudio Ranieri’s lack of title wins — despite a largely successful career in management — has been pointed out, but it is at this stage where it could really count against him.

Nobody can know for sure whether he will be able to cope with the white heat of a title run-in because it remains a largely alien experience, and while he is not showing signs of buckling under the strain now, the pressure will increase in time.

He will probably be grateful his nearest rival — Mauricio Pochettino at Tottenham — is equally green when it comes to closing out title wins, and that neither the Argentine, Arsene Wenger or Manuel Pellegrini is a fan of the mind games that habitually provide the soundtrack to title races.

One can only imagine the drip-drip of snide asides and barbed comments that would have been directed at Ranieri had Jose Mourinho been hot on his tail with Chelsea. THE DAILY TELEGRAPH

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