Germany v France - get set for magic in Marseille

Germany versus France has a lovely ring to it. It feels like a proper semi-final. Meeting for the fifth time in tournament play, the winner of this clash of the titans will be white-hot favourites to become European champions in Paris on Monday morning. Ahead of Friday morning's game, TODAY’s Euro analyst Adrian Clarke (sports [at] mediacorp.com.sg) explains how both managers have plenty on their plates when plotting how to make it a magical night in Marseille….

DESCHAMPS' DILEMMA

With a full squad to choose from, Didier Deschamps (in white) will be in a dilemma - does he stick with the formation that worked well against Iceland? If not, who does he drop? Photo: AP

There’s a tale dating back to the 1998 World Cup quarter-final between France and Italy that speaks of Marcel Desailly and Didier Deschamps arguing feverishly mid-penalty-shootout over who should take the sixth spot kick.

Neither Frenchman fancied it. And according to legend, Les Bleus’ current head coach (and then captain) even faked cramp in a desperate bid to avoid the responsibility.

Luigi Di Biago’s miss let him off the hook that night, but 18 years on at another home tournament, Deschamps knows he can’t wriggle out of his duty this time. 

With a full squad to choose from, the little general is under intense pressure to get the most important team selection of his life spot on.

Just like that penalty he never had to take, he can’t afford to mess up.

On the back of a ruthless 5-2 win in the quarters, confidence and momentum are building towards a timely crescendo, but does he stick with the same XI and 4-4-2 that disposed of Iceland? Or should the previously suspended Adil Rami and N’Golo Kante return, and they revert back to the managers’ preferred 4-3-3?

It’s a decisive call.

Kante's defensive qualities should make him a vital pick for Didier Deschamps. Photo: Reuters

Going into a clash with Germany minus a defensive midfielder (Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi are not exactly sitters) would be an almighty risk, especially with playmaker Mesut Ozil in the groove.

So for me, Kante’s unrivalled defensive engine and knack of breaking up play is a necessity to help protect a French rearguard that’s been unconvincing.

The success of Antoine Griezmann in a central role with Olivier Giroud exaggerates the quandary.

Form indicates those two strikers NEED to play in close proximity, rather than shunting the Atletico Madrid forward out on the right.

This creates a muddle over what to do in midfield. Could teacher’s pet Matuidi be axed? Maybe a narrow quartet of Dimitri Payet, Matuidi, Kante and Pogba would work instead?

Overloaded with options, Deschamps will have had sleepless nights over the toughest tactical conundrum of his career so far.

A GERMAN RETHINK

Injuries to Mario Gomez, and Sami Khedira and a suspension on Mats Hummels have hurt Germany's spine, forcing Joachim Loew (in white) to do a massive tactical rethink. Photo: AP

When major tournaments come around Germany can never be accused of lacking backbone, but ahead of an almighty battle at the Stade Velodrome there are worries over the durability of their spine.

Those concerns are not without foundation.

Lynchpin striker Mario Gomez is out of the competition with a hamstring injury. Classy midfield conduit Sami Khedira has a thigh problem. His stand-in Bastian Schweinsteiger could play, but is troubled by a painful knee. And defender Mats Hummels, who has looked more stylish with every appearance, has to sit this one out after collecting a brace of yellow cards.

Although cool on the outside, Joachim Low will have been sweating over what to do.

The loss of Gomez is an especially crippling blow. The 30-year-old has been a figure of derision in some quarters at international level, but his ability to hold the ball up for others, offering a muscular presence, helped those around him shine.

Worryingly, there is no Gomez Mark II in the squad.

Out of form striker Thomas Muller has not scored a goal from 10 attempts at the Euros. Photo: AP

With the Mario Gotze experiment an overwhelming failure in the first two games, and wide-man-cum-striker Andre Schurrle short on form and minutes, it feels like using out-of-sorts Thomas Muller as his chief pivot is the only option left to exercise.

He’s a class act with movement to fear, but in a tactical sense, France will feel fairly content. Muller’s best work is rarely as a number nine, and the Bayern ace hasn’t scored a Euros goal in ten attempts.

In Low’s shoes, I’d be tempted to bring 20-year-old Julian Weigl into the fray alongside the imperious Toni Kroos, but that’s a courageous call. Liverpool’s Emre Can, is another central midfield alternative.

Germany are expected to switch to a back four in Hummels’ absence, dropping Hector and Joshua Kimmich into their regular fullback positions, but don’t be surprised if Low persists with the unexpected 3-4-2-1 formation that comfortably negated Italy’s front two.

Give them a choice, and Giroud/Greizmann would undoubtedly prefer to encounter two, not three central defenders. That makes it a plan worth considering.

TACTICS

Antoine Griezmann breaking through and chipping the Iceland goalkeeper Hannes Halldorsson for France's fourth goal last week. Photo: Reuters 

Being on enemy turf won’t stop Germany pressing for goals, so France’s game plan will centre around how to hurt them on the break.

Leaving a high line - relying on sweeper keeper Manuel Neuer to tidy up through balls – will cause gaps to be left for Griezmann to run into. All it needs is a Les Bleus midfielder to slide in the right pass, possibly via an Olivier Giroud flick on, and the hosts could be in business.

Payet’s duel with impressive youngster Joshua Kimmich down the flank is another to keep tabs on.

Die Mannschaft will view fullbacks Evra and Sagna as sluggish weak links, and they’ll be aware that the aggressive Laurent Koscielny and Rami (if selected) can get drawn towards the ball in search of a crunching tackle. Watch out for one touch flicks and runners from deep, attempting to make them pay for that.

France are also super-shaky from set pieces. With Kroos or Ozil standing over free kicks and corners, hearts will be in mouths every time there’s a dead ball.

PREDICTION

Germany's Joshua Kimmich scoring from the penalty spot against Italy in the quarter-finals. Photo: Reuters

No one’s ever won two successive penalty shootouts at the Euros, but if anyone can do it, you’d put your house on Germany.

With both teams capable of scoring goals I’m hoping the coaches adopt an attacking mindset. And if they do, we’re in for an explosive contest packed with drama.

Germany, even with depleted numbers, are probably the more rounded side, but I don’t think there will be much in it.

SCORE: Germany 2 France 2 (Germany to win on penalties, again!)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Adrian Clarke is a former Arsenal midfielder who has played at every level of the English game. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for TODAY and several well-known football websites. Follow him @adrianjclarke

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