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It’s Chelsea’s title to lose

Extolling Chelsea as the finest Premier League specimens we have seen since Arsenal, Invincibles of 2003/04, has dominated conversation this season. Okay, they’ve lost a couple of games now, but nobody is arguing Jose Mourinho hasn’t created an exceptional side.

Chelsea have an almost perfect record so far and have better luck than City in fixtures. Photo: Getty Images

Chelsea have an almost perfect record so far and have better luck than City in fixtures. Photo: Getty Images

Extolling Chelsea as the finest Premier League specimens we have seen since Arsenal, Invincibles of 2003/04, has dominated conversation this season. Okay, they’ve lost a couple of games now, but nobody is arguing Jose Mourinho hasn’t created an exceptional side.

As for the champions, Manchester City, they have barely had a mention. Sergio Aguero has been superb, but as for the rest? Not a lot to write home about. The perception is that it has been a passable defence of their crown, nothing more.

How, then, can we explain that at the 20-match stage there is not a single point or solitary goal to separate the two? It’s bewildering.

Nine points back sit the doggedly resurgent Manchester United. They’ve not knocked our socks off once with a wondrous performance, yet beating them has proved easier said than done. Even so, don’t expect a trademark Red Devils run along the rails this time. As clever as he is, Louis van Gaal doesn’t have enough thoroughbreds at the back to turn a two-horse race into a three-way dash for the line this year.

The title will be Chelsea’s or City’s. While I didn’t expect the long-time leaders to let their advantage slip, I still fancy the trophy to be helicoptered into west London come May.

A Team of the Season right now would include at least six of Mourinho’s men (John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic, Nemanja Matic, Cesc Fabregas, Eden Hazard and Diego Costa) compared with just the one Etihad hero in Aguero. Manuel Pellegrini’s key men must up their game in the final 18 contests to stay on their coat-tails.

It shouldn’t be overlooked that Chelsea have also ridden the bumpier terrain during the first half of 2014/15.

They have travelled to City, United, Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool and Everton, losing just once and collecting nine points from a possible 18. With a perfect record at Stamford Bridge to maintain, I’d be flabbergasted if they don’t better that haul quite significantly in the return duels.

Cast your eye at City’s fixtures, and the run-in looks far more treacherous. They may have a terrific away record, but trips to Anfield, Stamford Bridge, White Hart Lane, Old Trafford and Goodison Park (tonight) will be a stern test of their mettle.

Injuries will also play a part. During the past five Premier League seasons, four of the eventual champions used the same or fewer players than those that finished second, third and fourth. Keeping a settled side matters.

Chelsea have been luckier on this front. Eight of their players have played in at least 19 of the 20 games, while Jesus Navas is the only City man to match that feat.

Football can be a cruel mistress, though — just ask Steven Gerrard — so don’t rule out this tide turning full circle. Should Chelsea lose Terry, Costa, Fabregas or Hazard for a long period — or several of them at the same time — those fringe players who’ve been admiring it all from the bench will have a fight on their hands to ensure the injuries don’t cost them winner’s medals.

Aside from ill fortune, inexperience is the only other factor that could derail Chelsea.

Only five current players were part of Chelsea’s last title-winning side in 2009/10, which means most don’t even know if they have what it takes to go all the way. As Liverpool painfully discovered, City’s proven durability over course and distance makes them tough adversaries.

Until recently, it looked like we’d have to sit through a runaway procession. Mercifully, we now at least have a proper race on our hands.

Adrian Clarke is a former Arsenal midfielder who has played at every level of English football. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for publications around the world. Follow him on Twitter @adrianjclarke.

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