Making sense of football’s Russian Roulette

We have seen two penalty shootouts decide the fates of Costa Rica, Greece, Brazil and Chile. More are likely to follow. TODAY football columnist Adrian Clarke (sports [at] mediacorp.com.sg takes a look at football’s version of the Russian roulette, and why the English cannot take them like the Germans.

To an Englishman, any mention of the term, penalty shootout, must always be preceded by the word “dreaded”.

Like rain clouds, lurgies, votes of confidence, or any other moment of impending doom, the mere mention of England’s football team and penalties in the same sentence sends grown men, women and children into a warp of despair.

No one under the age of 18 in my home country has ever seen their national team win a penalty shoot-out. We’ve lost six from seven. In three attempts at the World Cup finals, we’ve failed every single time.

England are truly terrible when it comes to the dreaded penalty shoot-out. Why, I wonder?

It’s more of a psychological issue than a footballing one. Any player, certainly a professional one, should feel confident hitting the back of the net from 12 yards (11m). The statistics vary, but on average there’s a 70-76 per cent chance of success. The trouble is England’s “tradition” of failure is so ingrained it’s almost habitual, haunted by past failures.

An academic study in Norway recently found the chances of converting a penalty dropped to 57 per cent if their team lost their two previous shoot-outs, irrespective of whether they themselves were involved.

Conversely, the prospects of success leaps to 89 per cent if a player is part of a side that has been victorious in their past two spot-kick competitions. Winning is contagious, while losing is a vicious cycle.

Apart from Colombia, the seven other remaining nations in Brazil boast experience of shoot-outs in the World Cup finals.

Of the 24 “contests” we’ve seen since the first shoot-out that saw the former West Germany beat France 5-4 in the 1982 World Cup semi-finals, Belgium and Costa Rica perversely have the finest record.

Not a single player from either country has missed a World Cup penalty. Although impressive, it’s a misleading statistic, for their victories in 1986 and 2014, respectively, were their sole experiences of the shoot-out at this level.

The true kings are Germany. With a perfect record of four wins from four attempts, they’ve missed only one penalty from 18 attempts in the competition. When they step up, they step up with incredible confidence.

Next are Brazil and Argentina, who’ve won three and lost one apiece; the 2014 hosts winning the final 20 years ago courtesy of a competition from 12 yards out against Italy.

France are just behind them with a 66 per cent win rate from three goes, while bringing up the rear with an English-like record are the Netherlands — the only nation left in the competition yet to taste success on this stage. They lost to Brazil 4-2 on penalties in the 1998 semi-final.

As a former penalty-taker myself, the best advice I can offer, is think positively. I missed only once — I changed my mind at the last second on where to aim it — and it still hurts.

Goalkeepers love shootouts. They’ll be heroes, or just unlucky. They know they can’t lose. For the takers, it’s make-or-break time.

Worry about missing, and you’re in trouble. Embrace the likelihood of a goal German-style and the chances are high you’ll score one.

The key to success in a shootout it seems, is to love it, not dread it.

Adrian Clarke is a former Arsenal midfielder who has played at every level of English football. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for publications around the world. Follow him on Twitter @adrianjclarke

A report by the Financial Times said Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics, has compiled a database of about 11,000 penalties. Among those he has studied are Brazil star Neymar, who usually kicks to the goalkeeper’s right. “I’ve never seen him kick left,” he said.