Much at stake in Gunners vs Spurs

Today’s high-stakes clash between north London rivals Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal has been billed as the most important derby between these two clubs in a generation. Ahead of what is set to be a rip-roaring but tense 90 minutes of English Premier League action, our EPL analyst Adrian Clarke (sports [at] mediacorp.com.sg) compares their title credentials ...

THE NUMBERS GAME

Stats do not win championships, great teams do, but you cannot ignore the numbers completely. Certain historical patterns are a useful indicator.

Arsenal fans may want to look away, though. The Gunners have suffered seven defeats already this term, and Blackburn Rovers are the only EPL winners that have ever lost that many matches en route to the crown, and that was 21 years ago.

In contrast, Tottenham have only been beaten four times so far.

Given how wacky this season has been, the 80-point mark is a realistic target for top spot (the last three champions have all finished on more than 86), but a disastrous mid-week defeat to Swansea means Arsene Wenger’s men must win all 10 of their final fixtures to reach 81. That is a tall order.

Clubs with forwards that score 20-plus league goals always have a great shot at landing the prize, too. Jamie Vardy (19) and Harry Kane (16) are the most likely of this season’s protagonists, with Olivier Giroud languishing on 12.

When it comes to goal difference and defensive records, Spurs have a edge on their North London neighbours. Sitting on a respectable +27, they are the only team who might come close to +40, usually the bare minimum required, and they also have the meanest goals-against column. Nothing is following the usual path in 2015-16, but Tottenham are statistically in a far better place than Arsenal.

MENTALITY

Do Arsenal and Tottenham have the mental strength to cross the finishing line first? When striding into the unknown, so many teams get stuck in the mud.

Spurs are complete rookies in this scenario, so there is not a lot to go on. Being the youngest squad in the entire division could be seen as a plus, or a negative.

Will their inexperience make them wilt at the business end? Or could the fearlessness of youth ensure they do not worry too much about the pressure?

The Gunners were edgy against Swansea. Nervous, playing raggedly and off the cuff, they blew a great chance to close the gap.

Arsenal have led at this stage several times in recent years and faded towards the end, so there is a complex of sorts to overcome, but having won back-to-back FA Cups means that the squad has won silverware together — and that is an advantage.

MATCH-WINNING TALENT

Wenger has a deeper, more talented squad. In Petr Cech, Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez, he has three world-class stars. When everybody is fit (a rarity), they have two international quality footballers competing for each position.

Worryingly though, Arsenal’s game changers are not in the best of shape.

Alexis, Theo Walcott and Giroud have seen their goals dry up and, in general, the team’s finishing has let them down. The gifted Jack Wilshere and Santi Cazorla remain sidelined too.

If a couple of their stars turn up to the party and end the campaign on a hot streak, it might not be over for the Gunners. Right now, though, that is a big “if”.

Should injuries bite, there are serious question marks over whether Spurs have the resources to cope. There is still no adequate stand-in for Harry Kane, and in central midfield, the back-ups are also light.

FLAWS

Spurs’ strength this season is a lack of obvious deficiencies. They are strong, without necessarily being special, in every department. Mauricio Pochettino’s pressing game does, at times, mean they risk using a high defensive line but, in general, they are solid.

Based on current form, Arsenal are at their weakest down the spine.

Stand-in goalkeeper David Ospina is small and will play in today’s derby, central defenders Gabriel Paulista and Per Mertesacker are error-prone, and the midfield axis of Aaron Ramsey and Francis Coquelin is not functioning well.

When Arsenal are on the attack, they are open and at their most vulnerable. Opponents fancy their chances of hurting them on the break

THE MANAGERS

One of the brightest young managers in world football, Pochettino’s steely temperament and ability to successfully implement his philosophies are impressive. In contrast, Wenger appears tense and disenchanted with his players’ form. But the Frenchman has been there and done it before and, in his 20th season in charge, he knows how to handle players in that strain-filled final stretch.

THE RUN-IN

I do not like the look of Tottenham’s last 10 games. Liverpool, Chelsea and Stoke City are testing away trips, Manchester United will not make it easy at the Lane, and Southampton (home) and Newcastle United (away) will make a nervy finish.

A lot has been made of Arsenal’s hard-looking trips to Everton, West Ham and Manchester City, but their home games are far kinder.

If they are within three points of the summit on the final day, Wenger’s men also only have to take care of a shockingly bad Aston Villa team.

THE PREDICTION

If Arsenal do not perform much better than they have in their last two outings, their bitter rivals will beat them comfortably today. That is a guarantee.

My hunch says they will toil for long periods against a powerful Spurs side but, I fancy Wenger’s men to pinch an extremely precious point.

Prediction: Arsenal 2 Tottenham 2

BIG MATCH PREDICTIONS

Everton vs West Ham United

This “Slaven Bilic Derby” should be nice and juicy. I rate the Hammers boss very highly as a tactical coach, but the Toffees are playing well as an attacking force, and pose a goal threat. Everton’s rearguard is still leaky, though, so I envisage an entertaining draw at Goodison Park.

Prediction: Everton 2 West Ham 2

Watford vs Leicester City

We are expecting a rare 4-4-2 v 4-4-2 encounter at Vicarage Road, and that bodes well for the league leaders. In the only other five games where this has happened in 2015-16, Leicester have collected 13 points, averaging 2.6 goals a game. It suits them, and I fancy the fairytale boys to claim another handsome success.

Prediction: Watford 1 Leicester 3

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

It is a good time to be facing the Eagles, but they do possess two weapons that will worry Liverpool: Fit again Yannick Bolasie (often a nemesis for the Reds) and power at set pieces. Even so, buoyed by a silky display against Manchester City, Liverpool’s forward department may have too much firepower.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1 Liverpool 2

West Bromwich vs Manchester United

Maybe Louis van Gaal is not such a dinosaur after all? Four straight wins and United are suddenly a side in form. They will be up against a West Brom outfit that has suddenly remembered that football is not just about shutting up shop. Since Tony Pulis unleashed a front three of Berahino, Sessegnon and Rondon, West Brom have looked much better.

Prediction: West Brom 1 Man United 1

About the author

Former Arsenal midfielder Adrian Clarke has played at every level of the English game. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for a number of football websites and international publications. Follow him @adrianjclarke

TV LISTINGS

TODAY

8.45pm

Tottenham vs Arsenal

Singtel Ch 102, StarHub Ch227

10.55pm

Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Ch 103, Ch228

Everton vs West Ham

Ch 104, Ch229

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Ch 105, Ch 230

Southampton vs Sunderland

Ch 106, Ch231

Swansea vs Norwich

Ch 107, Ch232

Chelsea vs Stoke

Ch 102, Ch227

TOMORROW(Ch 102, Ch227)

1.30am

Watford vs Leicester

9.30pm

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

11.55pm

West Brom vs Manchester United