Premier League: The pros and cons of a shortened summer transfer window

On Thursday (Sept 7), English Premier League (EPL) clubs voted to close the summer transfer window at 5pm on the Thursday before the start of the season with effect from the 2018-19 campaign.

Media reports suggest that the vote was very close, with 14 clubs voting for the motion, five voting against and one abstaining. Sources suggest that Manchester United and Manchester City were among the five against – along with Crystal Palace, Watford and Swansea – and that the abstention was from Burnley.

This will drastically change the current system whereby the Aug 31 deadline means clubs often play anywhere from two to five games before the window closes – often with significantly different personnel than will be on the pitch after Sept 1.

The first reaction in many quarters was that teams simply have to get their business done earlier in the window, and that this may end the disruptive effect of transfer speculation dragging into the playing calendar.

However, this move potentially brings challenges of its own given that there is no indication as yet that other leagues around Europe will follow suit.

Richard Scudamore, the Premier League Chairman, joined supportive clubs in stating the most frequently mentioned benefit: teams can now begin the season with certainty over their squads and we won’t see the mysterious early-season injuries and poorly-explained absences that so often blight want-away players (see Philippe Coutinho, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Alexis Sanchez this year).

Another argument often used is fairness in the competition – some have challenged the idea that a player can play for a team in one match in August, and could potentially line up against that same team in September.

Mamadou Sakho transformed Crystal Palace’s season last year during his loan spell and he rejoined Palace permanently just before the deadline, after they lost their opening three games. If his arrival again solidifies their defence and they now start to pick up points, have their first three opponents benefited from the late window closure?  

However, supporters of the Aug 31 deadline have argued that it allows managers to see how their team starts the season and addresses shortcomings that are sometimes difficult to spot during the often leisurely pre-season friendlies. Tottenham Hotspur fans may be most relieved; they have long lamented the club’s approach to last-minute business which has often cost them points in the early games of the season.

Several clubs and analysts that expressed concerns on the change pointed to the international implications – at this time, the EPL is the only league instituting this change and it only affects their registration of new players (i.e. purchases), not their sales. That means that on Aug 1, 2018, Barcelona would still be able to bid for a Liverpool player, potentially unsettling them and causing the player in question to request a move. The difference now is that if Liverpool give in and sell that player, there would be no option to replace him.

At this time, the English Football League – the Championship and the other divisions below it – has not said if they will seek to make the same change; meaning they could also be in a similar position to European clubs.

Aleksander Ceferin, the president of European football governing body Uefa, has said he supports this change and that he expects other leagues will follow suit. Scudamore himself stated that he hopes that the other major leagues – La Liga, the Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and Serie A – will also adjust their windows to match the Premier League. 

If they don’t, Premier League clubs face some difficult situations – they would have to be firm with their players who are pushing for moves and tell them that if the transfer is not done by July 31, it’s not happening – and that requests after Aug 1 will simply not be tolerated.

Whether or not the transfer windows around Europe are changed to match the EPL, one big question on everyone’s mind is how this will affect transfer spending – especially after how some of the purchases before the end of the recent window at times exceeded the bounds of all rational expectations.

With nearly one month less to conduct their business, will teams make fewer deals? Or will they simply condense their existing levels of activity into the shorter period? Given that many teams seem to thrive in the last minutes of the window and don’t seem to get going until the last weeks or days, there is definitely potential to mobilise earlier.

However, in a World Cup year – as 2018 will be – many players will be busy representing their nation all the way up until July 15. As their international associations will not allow them to be distracted during the tournament, this may mean clubs targeting World Cup stars face the possibility of trying to conduct transfers in a very short post-tournament window before the club season starts. 

Will the time pressure lead to even greater fee inflation as the sense of urgency is increased in the reduced time? The game of brinkmanship will move earlier, but given the way the irrational way the market is going, the impact of a shorter window will be difficult to quantify.

Premier League clubs will now wait and see to see if the rest of Europe follows their lead and the windows fall back into line – if not, the 2018 summer window could be very interesting as the disparity between the transfer approaches of the leagues could be further amplified with teams facing different timelines and urgencies in the first few weeks. 

About the author: James Walton is Sports Business Group Leader at Deloitte Southeast Asia