United Wales can scupper Belgium’s golden boys

Fast-improving Belgium are hotly tipped to make the final, but they have a slippery-looking banana skin to negotiate in the quarters. Will they overcome “bogey side” Wales, or are we in for another major Euro 2016 upset? TODAY’s Euro analyst Adrian Clarke (sports [at] mediacorp.com.sg) explains why he is refusing to rule out a shock in Lille tonight …

The Musketeer Spirit

I am no fan of cheesy hashtags that are supposed to be “inspirational”, but Wales’ adopted slogan does at least match their ethos on the pitch. Even though they have the world’s most expensive footballer within their ranks, they really are #StrongerTogether.

Any fool can see that Chris Coleman’s 23-man group is a bunch of great pals, enjoying the time of their lives. What they lack in natural ability as a collective, they make up for with friendship and unity. The Welsh manager has fostered a very special spirit.

There are no big heads ruling the roost, no tantrums at team selection, and no “me, me, me” types to sour the mood.

Wales are a simple, well-drilled side that relies on teamwork. The key to success is trusting that people around them have their backs.

Can we say the same about Belgium? I have my reservations.

Senior players have reportedly all but taken over the dressing room, citing a lack of faith in head coach Marc Wilmots as the reason for their coup. While I struggle to believe the 47-year-old is a total lame duck, it would not be the first time an international manager has seen his authority challenged.

The way I see it, Belgium have brilliant individuals, and if everything clicks in Lille, they could blow Wales apart.

However, if things do not go to plan, I do not know if the harmony is there to avoid an unwanted crumble.

Recent history lessons

These two nations are not strangers. Paired together in qualifying, Wales took four points off Belgium to help book their place in the Euro 2016 finals.

Back in November 2014, an exceptionally sturdy defensive performance in Brussels earned Coleman’s men a shock 0-0 draw.

The home side hogged possession and did their utmost to torment the underdogs, but through a mixture of good fortune, top goalkeeping, and an iron will not to concede, Wales held out quite comfortably. On the break, they had the Belgians sweating on occasion too.

Last June at the Cardiff City Stadium, Wales went one better and recorded a win. Gareth Bale ran his socks off to the point of exhaustion that night, frightening the life out of Wilmots’ side every time he received the ball. It was the Real Madrid superstar who pounced on a loose error to score a 25th-minute winner too.

In both games, Belgium were the aggressors, peppering away at Wayne Hennessy’s goal, but breaking down a five-man rearguard that was protected by a selflessly hardworking midfield, proved problematic.

The same could happen again.

Can you trust the Belgians?

Belgium are strong odds-on favourites to reach the semi-finals, but I would not be brave enough to bet on them. They may have an outstanding pool of players, but every now and then (often on the big stage), this group tends to throw in a no-show.

Italy wiped the floor with them in the opening game, when not for the first time, Wilmots’ side flattered to deceive. Slow, stilted and England-esque in the way they hope individual brilliance might save them from embarrassment, Belgium are more than capable of ugly off-days.

We know that star striker Romelu Lukaku is deadly on his day but, for much of this tournament, he has been a riddle wrapped up in a mystery inside an enigma. Yes, he can be a hit, but he also often misses.

Thomas Vermaelen is suspended, which means a reshuffle in defence. Jan Vertonghen will probably shuffle inside to centre-back (reuniting his Tottenham Hotspur partnership with Toby Alderweireld) but that creates a possible weakness at left-back.

A thigh injury may also keep on-fire Eden Hazard out of the fray. Even if the Chelsea man reports for action, he will not start this last-eight clash 100 per cent fit.

Pinning your hopes on Belgium is a risky ploy.

Tactically Awkward

Facing teams that play with three at the back can be unexpectedly awkward — especially these days when it is not a system players come up against all that often. From a tactical perspective, this gives Wales a marginal upper hand ahead of kick off.

The Italians flummoxed Belgium completely with a similar approach.

Using their central midfield triumvirate to outnumber Axel Witsel and Radja Nainggolan — and swallowing up lone striker Lukaku with aggressive marking, safe in the knowledge they had extra men to cover — Antonio Conte showed Coleman how to do it.

Whichever way I look at it, Wales can cause them problems.

Wilmots’ team are at their weakest out wide, where Bale will work some magic, and at their most vulnerable to counters down the middle, where Bale and Aaron Ramsey have made hay all tournament long.

If Belgium could have handpicked their quarter-final opponents, it would not have been Wales.

Prediction

When you check out these two sides on paper, there can only be one winner, but I believe Wales have a wonderful chance to reach the last four.

If the Belgians start brightly and take the lead, they are good enough to confidently cruise through. But the longer Coleman’s men stay in touch, the more important their greater teamwork will become.

I see it being a long night, with Wales pinching it on the break.

Wales 2 Belgium 1 (after extra time)

FORM GUIDE:

Belgium:

* Belgium’s tournament began with a 2-0 defeat by Italy, which prompted almost immediate recriminations, which included a round of clear-the-air talks between coach Marc Wilmots and his players.

* Since then, they have begun to live up to expectations with midfielders Kevin de Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Axel Witsel shining in recent games.

*Striker Romelu Lukaku, who bore much criticism after spurning chances against Italy, has continued to lead the attack and looked sharp.

* Toby Alderweireld and Thomas Vermaelen have marshalled a defence that has not conceded in their last three games with Thibaut Courtois largely untroubled in goal. However, Vermaelen is suspended for this game.

Wales:

* Wales have been propelled into the last eight by Gareth Bale whose three goals helped them top their group and made him the tournament’s joint top scorer.

* The midfield axis of Liverpool’s Joe Allen and Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsey have also performed an excellent job in providing a stable foundation and feeding Bale.

* The only doubt remains whom manager Chris Coleman chooses to lead the forward line. Sam Vokes, Hal Robson-Kanu and Jonathan Williams have all started matches at the tournament.

LIVE ON TV: Saturday, 3am, Singtel Ch142 and StarHub Ch 220 (Eleven EURO)

UEFA EURO 2016 on Eleven Sports channels is available LIVE on Toggle! Subscribe at www.toggle.com/eleveneuro

About the author:

Adrian Clarke is a former Arsenal midfielder who has played at every level of the English game. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for TODAY and several popular football websites. Follow him @adrianjclarke.