Whoever wins this ‘real final’ should go on to win Euro 2016

When it matters most, Germany and Italy always come to the party. Between them, they’ve racked up 23 appearances in major finals, winning eight World Cups and four Euro titles. And although pre-tournament wobbles lowered expectations, surprise-surprise, its these two proud footballing nations who have been the outstanding teams of Euro 2016 so far. Ahead of their heavyweight last eight showdown in Bordeaux tonight, a match that’s been billed as ‘the real final’, TODAY’s Euro analyst Adrian Clarke explains how each would be a deserving winner on July 10.

THREE REASONS TO BACK GERMANY

1. Smooth operators

We often refer to Die Mannschaft as a ‘machine’, and having spluttered through the lower gears since becoming world champions, that well-manufactured engine of theirs has built up a lovely head of steam.

They are the slickest team in France.

Peacocking their way around the pitch in a familiar 4-2-3-1, Joachim Low’s men appear uber-comfortable with their shape. Pass and move. Pass and move. Bossing 64 percent of possession, and completing 91 percent of their passes, they are ensuring that their opponents find it hard to get a touch.

It’s not as if they’re always going sideways either. Around the box, their delightful repertoire of deft flicks, slide rule passes and cheeky 1-2s are slicing rivals open with regularity.

2. Balance is restored

Deploying Mario Gotze as the lone striker in the first one and a half matches never felt right. Since Joachim Low brought Mario Gomez into his XI, the nuts and bolts have almost instantly clicked into place.

With a target man to bounce passes into, or to aim crosses for in the box, Germany have bared their teeth; and Turkish football’s leading scorer in 2015-16 has impressed.

Two other tweaks have also helped.

Bringing 21-year-old Joshua Kimmich in for Benedikt Howedes at right-back has injected more vibrancy to that flank, helping to push the Germans further up the pitch. And Julian Draxler, omitted from the Northern Ireland game, now seems to have nailed down his spot as the first choice left-winger following his performance against Slovakia.

Every square peg fits snugly into the right hole.

3. The tightest triangle

All great sides need an insurance policy - especially outfits as attack-minded as the Germans - so it’s lucky for them that Jerome Boateng, Mats Hummels and Manuel Neuer are such a titanium-like triumvirate.

Not a lot gets past them, and so far at Euro 2016, it’s a rearguard that’s yet to be breached.

Boateng has shone brightest, excelling on the ball and in his defensive contributions, but the other two aren’t far behind.

It’s a huge ask to go seven matches without conceding, but don’t expect this lot to offer up any generous gifts.

THREE REASONS TO BACK ITALY

1. The Italian BBC

Italy’s gnarly defenders remind me of villainous Hollywood bad guys, so it’s no surprise Andrea Barzagli, Leanardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini have nicknamed themselves “The Inglorious B***tards”.

Few would argue they’re not as steely as any of Quentin Tarantino’s movie characters.

They’ve been as uncompromising as ever at Euro 2016. Stepping in to make a series of crunching tackles and classy interceptions, the ‘BBC’ don’t allow forwards the comfort of settling into a rhythm.

Squeezing up to aggressively engage, they are a three-man unit that’s built to get under the skins of others.

In this era of pampered, molly-cuddled young players, their love of old fashioned defending is a refreshing antidote.

2. Animation

There’s a zingy spark about Antonio Conte’s side that makes them fun to watch.

Compared to past Italy sides they’re short on talent, but every member of the squad is determined to revel in the moment.

Bouncing around the field, flying into the faces of opposite numbers, and attacking with fire in their bellies, their general attitude has put other teams to shame. (England, yes that’s you!)

Both wingbacks play with liberation and freedom. In central midfield with no ‘sitter’, they shuffle around the engine room like a pack of dogs, and the unheralded Emmanuel Giacherrini and Eder, are a couple of inspirational dynamos that drive the team on.

Italy’s energy and spirit is superb.

3. Professor Conte

This team is a reflection of their manager’s personality, so Chelsea fans are in for a treat next season. Antonio Conte has been one of the stars of the tournament. The way he masterminded victories over Belgium and Spain, proved what a shrewd operator he is.

Tactically, his brave but hostile 3-5-2 formation, stymied two of the best sides on the planet.

Knocking the wind out of their sails with fast starts, soaking up pressure with ease, and then stepping on the gas to bring home the bacon, those 2-0 triumphs were an absolute education.

By beating two of the tournament favourites, Italy now possess belief that under their clever little manager, nothing is impossible.

PREDICTION

I was wrong to write Italy off as no-hopers last month, and they will rightly fancy themselves in this epic quarter-final.

Unbeaten in eight competitive matches against Germany, and with Conte in their corner, you know their confidence levels and game plan will be solid.

However, for sheer weight of talent I’ve got to side with the world champions this time.

Boasting mental strength, unity, and great individuals, Germany will usually find a way to win, even in the most difficult of circumstances. when the big game comes around.

These are two outstanding sides, in differing ways. Whoever prevails in this tie, will be my tip for the title.

SCORE: Germany 2 Italy 1

FORM GUIDE

* The two sides have met eight times in major tournaments, with Italy winning four and drawing four.

* In their most recent matches, Italy claimed a 2-1 win in the Euro 2012 semi-finals while Germany romped to a 4-1 win in a meaningless friendly in March.

* Germany goalie Manuel Neuer is on a record run of five games unbeaten, a first in the 108-year history of the German FA, which includes the 2-0 warm-up win over Hungary.

* Conte’s team will have to become the first team to score past the Germans at Euro 2016, unless the tie is settled by penalties.

* However, Italy’s defence is so tight that 38-year-old Gianluigi Buffon has only conceded one goal.

* Germany have all their players fit and no suspensions. Centre-back Jerome Boateng has recovered from a calf strain which made him doubtful for the 3-0 win over Slovakia in the last 16.

* But Italy duo Daniele De Rossi and Antonio Candreva look almost certain to miss the game after missing training again because of injury. Experienced midfielder De Rossi’s absence will be especially problematic for Italy as possible replacement Thiago Motta suspended.

Germany v Italy:

Sunday, 2.50am, Singtel Ch142 and StarHub Ch220 (Eleven EURO)

UEFA Euro 2016 on Eleven Sports channels is available live on Toggle! Subscribe at www.toggle.com/eleveneuro

About the author:

Adrian Clarke is a former Arsenal midfielder who has played at every level of the English game. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for TODAY, and several popular football websites. Follow him @adrianjclarke