Why Community Shield winners will get a leg-up in title race

The game’s most reliable raiser of curtains will be played at Wembley tomorrow, with Premier League champions Chelsea taking on FA Cup holders Arsenal.

Arsene Wenger will hope that ultimately meaningless Barclays Asia Trophy and Emirates Cup triumphs will be followed by a second successive and slightly less meaningless Community Shield win, but he will be well aware pre-season form does not necessarily translate into the competitive campaign, even if they did just last week hit Lyon for six.

Chelsea go into the game as favourites to lift the first trophy of the season, despite arguably having failed to strengthen the first 11 that fared so well last season.

Arsenal, meanwhile, upgraded significantly in goal, with the signing of Chelsea legend Petr Cech, and he will make his debut for his new club against his former teammates.

Arsenal have five Community Shield victories from eight attempts in the Premier League era, a tally two greater than Chelsea (three) from the same number of matches.

Wenger clearly knows how to prepare his team for big, one-off clashes, but Chelsea did not have ruthless winner Jose Mourinho in charge for the majority of their outings.

The war of words between the two managers continued this week, and both will be extremely keen to get one over their rival this weekend.

Mourinho will be confident of victory and will be buoyed by the record held by the reigning Premier League champions, who tend to fare significantly better than teams that have just won the FA Cup.

Of the 23 Community Shield clashes since 1992, 15 have been won by league winners and just six by FA Cup holders.

Chelsea also have a fantastic record against Arsenal, having kept five consecutive clean sheets against them, going more than eight hours without conceding a single goal. Chelsea have scored 10 goals without reply in that time and Arsenal have not beaten their cross-London rivals since their 5-3 win at Stamford Bridge in 2011.

Goals are plentiful in these clashes, and drama could be on the cards for tomorrow’s clash. An average of 2.9 goals have been scored during the Premier League era, including a whopping 23 in the last six matches (an average of 3.8).

The result of the game is a mild indicator for the ensuing campaign.

Sixty per cent of teams that lift the Community Shield go on to have a better season than the side they defeat, while 57 per cent of Community Shield matches have featured the eventual Premier League champions. The winners tomorrow could have drawn first blood in the title race.

Chelsea are once again the team to beat this season, while Arsenal genuinely look like title challengers for the first time in a long while. The stats suggest it is more likely than not that the game includes a team that will win this season’s Premier League, and also that the Community Shield victors will have an early-season edge over their rivals.

THE DAILY TELEGRAPH