The heart says Arsenal, but the head says it will be a Chelsea Double

Chelsea are chasing a famous Double. Arsenal need to save their season. There’s plenty riding on tonight’s FA Cup Final, and TODAY’s Premier League analyst Adrian Clarke (sports [at] mediacorp.com.sg) picks out the areas to watch in what should prove to be a cracking all-London showpiece…

An SOS for the BFG

To defeat the champions, Arsenal know they’ll need to defend for their lives, so the timing of Arsene Wenger’s centre-back crisis is cruel.

Laurent Koscielny’s reckless red card last weekend means he’s suspended. Gabriel has injured his knee. Calum Chambers is ineligible after a season-long loan at Middlesbrough. And Shkodran Mustafi remains unwell, suffering the after-effects of concussion.

This only leaves rookie Rob Holding and giant centre-back Per Mertesacker, a veteran that’s played just 37 minutes of first-team football all season.

Here comes an understatement; it’s not ideal.

Providing the Gunners boss sticks with the 3-4-2-1 that’s helped his side recover pride and form in recent weeks – and I believe he should - then left-back Nacho Monreal will slot inside to supplement the unit.

But is a Holding-Mertesacker-Monreal backline strong enough to contain the champions’ all-star attack?

On paper, no, but sometimes adversity refocuses minds in a beneficial manner.

Wenger’s hope will be that his team as a whole concentrates harder on protecting their rearguard than they might have done had all three first-choice men had been available.

I’ve seen stranger things happen.

Diego Costa’s power and pace will be the biggest concern.

He’s destroyed Mertesacker in the past with sharp runs in behind, so the cover around the rusty German will need to be excellent. Eden Hazard can’t be allowed to face him up in a 1-v-1 either.

Should Mustafi miss out, Arsenal will rely on a colossal 90 minutes from their captain. And those around him.

Conte’s conundrum

It’s a first-world problem of the highest order, but it doesn’t make Antonio Conte’s decision any easier.

Who does he select to play alongside N’Golo Kante in his engine room - the on-fire Cesc Fabregas or Mr Reliable, Nemanja Matic?

I don’t relish him making that call.

Ordinarily, I’d suggest Arsenal would be delighted not to see Matic in the starting XI.

His physical all-action style has caused the Gunners headaches before, and next to Kante, he forms an intimidating partnership.

But Fabregas is in sensational form.

Bossing the run-in with some sublime displays, creating chances for fun, the ex-Arsenal man is playing the best football we’ve seen from him since he returned from Barcelona.

On the wide-open expanses of Wembley, Conte may feel his chief architect has the space he needs to destroy his former club. Does he opt for that from the start, or late on as play gets stretched?

Off the ball, Fabregas is weaker than Matic, and that’s the pay-off.

Should the World Cup winner get the nod, watch out for Aaron Ramsey testing him with endless runs into the box. Tracking back has never been Fabregas’ forte.

Movement at turnovers

The winner of this final is likely to be the side that cuts through the other with most penetration on turnovers.

With so many genial talents operating between the lines (Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil, Hazard and Pedro), both managers will want to shrink the space, meaning that pressing will be put on the backburner.

They will build their tactics around a deep and compact middle block.

Until the ball changes hands, space won’t open up, so it’s in those moments that I expect this attacking quartet to burst into life.

As soon a transition sparks into life, they’ll be on their bikes, and if teammates can find them before defenders have got set, it could be the key to unlocking the door.

Between them these four stars have scored 57 Premier League goals and made 33 assists combined.

If none of them make a match-defining contribution I’ll be amazed.

Key Duel: Sanchez v Azpilicueta

Arsenal’s best player is likely to be in direct contact with Chelsea’s best defender, and it’s a duel you won’t want to take your eyes off.

If anyone can tame the Chilean wizard, I’d suggest Cesar Azpilicueta is in with a really good shout.

Born with a football brain that’s permanently dialed into smelling danger, the consistent Spaniard very rarely gives his opposite number an easy ride. In a positional sense, he’s world class.

Sanchez is no respecter of reputations though, and having scored in an FA Cup Final before, he’ll be looking to cement his place in the competition’s history with another star showing.

It might even be his final appearance in the red and white shirt.

Outside the box ,I don’t think Sanchez will mind his shadow following him. Inside it, he’ll try every trick in the book to escape Azpilicueta’s attentions.

This is a high class 50-50 battle that could go either way.

First goal wins?

Conte’s trailblazers scored first in 30 of their 38 Premier League games – and lost just once.

For the Gunners to have any hope of pulling off an upset, I fear they have no choice but to open the scoring, and then fend off a possible comeback.

An early goal won’t be as disastrous for the Blues (they’ll feel they can turn things around) but should Arsenal fall behind in the first half, it could be curtains.

The trick for Wenger’s underdogs is to keep spirits up, and stay in this final for as long as they can.

Coming back from 2-0 down like they did against Hull City in 2014 won’t happen here. Once Chelsea smell glory, they won’t give it up.

Prediction:

Do Chelsea’s players have enough fire in their bellies to add the FA Cup to their collection? If the answer’s yes, they will breeze their way to glory against the under strength Gunners.

If just five per cent of their desire is missing, don’t bet against a fired-up Arsenal.

Landing a famous 13th success in this competition is a carrot they’re determined to munch on, and it will give Wenger a mandate to take the club forward next term.

For the sake of the contest, I hope the Gunners score first - but even they do, my head is overruling my heart by suggesting it still might not be enough.

Hazard, Pedro and Costa up against a depleted defence - that just keeps ringing the alarm bells.

Score call: Chelsea 2 Arsenal 1 (AET)

LIVE ON TV:

The FA Cup final will be shown live on okto on Sunday (May 28) at 12.20am