They’re bunching up from mid-table down

If Sergio Aguero doesn’t stay fit and firing for Manchester City, this season’s race for the Premier League crown could turn into a one-horse Chelsea procession.

But cast your eyes a little further down the table and it looks a lot more interesting. Everyone bar Everton inside the lower half has a right to feel nervous, with just six points separating the bottom nine sides.

We’re not even at the mid-point of the season yet, but it’s already worth taking a look at how the battle to avoid the drop might pan out come May. The quest for top-flight survival is set to be an epic one.

ASTON VILLA

Current position: 12th

Predicted finish: 14th

Supporting Paul Lambert’s side must be a dreary affair. Set up with everybody behind the ball, Villa rely on two things: Defensive organisation and speedy counter-attacks. But Southampton still managed to score as many goals in one match (eight) as Villa have managed all season. To escape the drop, that stat must improve, and the return of striker Christian Benteke should ease concerns.

STOKE CITY

Current position: 13th

Predicted finish: 12th

It has been a season of extreme highs and head-scratching lows for the Potters, who, bizarrely, have a better record against the top teams. Credit must go to Mark Hughes for his rebranding of a side labelled thuggish long-ball merchants not so long ago. Stoke now play tidy football, and in N’Zonzi, Diouf and the brilliant Bojan they have more than a sprinkling of game-changing talent.

SUNDERLAND

Current position: 14th

Predicted finish: 15th

Gus Poyet arrived with a reputation for total passing football, but his Black Cats still aren’t good enough to play the way he craves. The draw specialists — they have eight already — will pick up plenty of points at the Stadium of Light, but they cannot rely on Connor Wickham’s late season heroics to save them at the death again. Buy a decent goalscorer in January and they should be fine.

CRYSTAL PALACE

Current position: 15th

Predicted finish: 19th

The Eagles boast the most enthusiastic fans in the Premier League, but that is the only chart they will top this season. Captain Mile Jedinak is a midfield inspiration and wingers Yannick Bolasie and Wilfried Zaha have the potential to excite, but can the team keep enough clean sheets? Neil Warnock has yet to find the disciplined formula that worked so well for Tony Pulis last term. Unless Palace spend heavily in January, it’s the drop for them.

WEST BROMWICH ALBION)

Current position: 16th

Predicted finish: 16th

Top-scorer Saido Berahino is in court later this month to face charges of drink-driving at 177kmh, and should he be handed a prison sentence, it could derail the Baggies’ season dramatically. West Brom are an attractive, hard-working side that should finish mid-table, but if they lose their top scorer (and any more confidence), it could be a long hard slog.

HULL CITY

Current position: 17th

Predicted finish: 13th

Steve Bruce (picture) is not a trendy modern-day coach, but he is extremely competent, and that is why I believe he will steer the Tigers to safety. Solid down the spine and having invested heavily last summer, Hull are better equipped than most of their rivals to cope with injuries. And with quality in Abel Hernandez, Nikica Jelavic, Tom Huddlestone and Mohamed Diame, they should escape with ease.

BURNLEY

Current position: 18th

Predicted finish: 20th

Unbeaten in their last four games, fans are daring to dream at Turf Moor, but there is plenty more work to be done before the Clarets can rest easy. You won’t find a more passionate side in the top flight and they are organised superbly by boss Sean Dyche, but do they have enough class to stay up? Leading scorer Danny Ings is their great white hope. He HAS to stay fit.

QUEENS PARK RANGERS

Current position: 19th

Predicted finish: 18th

The Hoops are hopeless away from home, scoring just twice and losing all seven matches on their travels. If this pathetic record doesn’t improve, Harry Redknapp’s side hasn’t got a prayer of staying up. Redknapp is nicknamed ‘Houdini’ for a reason though, and should he make an astute signing or two next month, the garden could suddenly look rosier. Their battle will go right to the wire.

LEICESTER CITY

Current position: 20th

Predicted finish: 17th

Fans are getting cranky, so don’t be surprised if a managerial change occurs at Leicester soon. Strikers Leonardo Ulloa, Jamie Vardy and David Nugent have not scored since September, and Nigel Pearson needs to bring in some better defenders. Could survival specialist Tony Pulis step in to save the day for this ambitious club? Don’t bet against it.

Adrian Clarke, TODAY’s EPL analyst, is a former Arsenal midfielder who has played at every level of English football. Now an experienced sports journalist, he writes for many publications around the world.