Brexit or not, UK needs migrants yearly to sustain dependency ratio

People in the United Kingdom chose to leave the European Union, and we shall respect their decision (“A hard-headed approach can help UK face post-Brexit tests”; July 4).

During the referendum, they were divided over many issues, one of which was the migrant issue. If Britons do not find cohesive ways to deal with it, the issue will be a divisive factor in their society for decades.

Regardless of whether the UK is in or out of the EU, the country needs immigrants to sustain its old-age dependency ratio owing to population ageing, and to make up for the number of Britons who emigrate every year.

In 2014, an estimated 323,000 people emigrated from Britain, while 641,000 immigrants arrived, resulting in a net inflow of 318,000 people. In the official population projections done in 2014, the annual long-term net inflow was assumed to be 185,000 people.

From 2014 to 2039, net migration would contribute 51 per cent of the projected population growth, with a further 17 per cent of projected growth attributable to migration’s effect on the natural increase in population (excess of births over deaths).

In 2014, there were 310 people of pensionable age per 1,000 people of working age. Even with an annual net inflow of 185,000 people, the dependency ratio would worsen to 370 per 1,000 people of working age by 2039.

These projections were done before the referendum. With Brexit, the number of Britons emigrating may come down, especially to EU nations.

Correspondingly, the yearly migrant inflow may drop a bit, but the UK’s dependence on a continuous inflow of immigrants would still be a reality. Unfortunately, the issue was played up during the referendum.

But it has also given Britons a fresh chance to reflect deeper on the issue. With an ageing population, an insufficient inflow of immigrants would push taxes up and perhaps reduce welfare for retirees.