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Clinton has grip on electoral votes needed: GOP strategists

IOWA — With roughly three weeks to Election Day, Republican strategists nationwide publicly concede Mrs Hillary Clinton has a firm grip on the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House — and may be on her way to an even more decisive victory over Mr Donald Trump.

Supporters wave as US Democratic presidential nominee Mrs Hillary Clinton arrives at a campaign office in Seattle, Washington on Oct 14, 2016. Photo: Reuters

Supporters wave as US Democratic presidential nominee Mrs Hillary Clinton arrives at a campaign office in Seattle, Washington on Oct 14, 2016. Photo: Reuters

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IOWA — With roughly three weeks to Election Day, Republican strategists nationwide publicly concede Mrs Hillary Clinton has a firm grip on the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House — and may be on her way to an even more decisive victory over Mr Donald Trump.

“He is on track to totally and completely melting down,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who is advising Florida Senator Marco Rubio’s re-election campaign. Like many Republican strategists, he was willing to speak publicly about the GOP nominee’s rough road ahead at the end of an unprecedented campaign.

Things can change before Election Day. There is one more presidential debate, and Mr Trump has rallied before. His core supporters remain strongly committed.

But along with indicators such as polling, campaign travel, staffing and advertising, the interviews with Republican political professionals unaffiliated with the Trump campaign suggest only an epic collapse by Mrs Clinton would keep her from winning enough states to become president.

In the past week, Mr Trump’s campaign has been hit by allegations the New York billionaire sexually accosted several women over the past three decades. Early voting in pivotal North Carolina and Florida shows positive signs for Mrs Clinton, and donations to the Republican National Committee are down about a quarter over the past three months from the same period in 2012, when Mr Mitt Romney was the nominee.

Preference polling in the past week, meanwhile, has generally moved in Mrs Clinton’s direction, with the Democrat improving in national surveys and in a number of contested states.

If the election were held today, Mrs Clinton would likely carry the entire West Coast and North-east, as well as most of the Great Lakes region — a place Mr Trump once identified as ripe territory for his populist message against free trade.

Only Ohio is a toss-up in that part of the country, but the perennial battleground may not play a decisive role come Election Day this year due to Mrs Clinton’s strength — and Mr Trump’s weaknesses — elsewhere.

Mr Trump and running mate Mr Mike Pence have made a hard play for Pennsylvania, a state carried by the Democratic nominee in the past six elections. But their strategy to hold down Mrs Clinton in Philadelphia and its suburbs while running up Mr Trump’s vote total in more conservative parts of the state has failed to materialise.

“He’s getting his brains beat in by women in the Philly suburbs,” said Mr Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who is surveying presidential battlegrounds and several states with races for US Senate.

Mr Trump was already struggling to attract support from women before his first debate with Mrs Clinton in late September. It was at that event in New York where Mrs Clinton stung Mr Trump by reviving his past shaming of a former Miss Universe for gaining weight.

Mr Trump’s response, calling the contestant’s weight gain “a real problem” in a TV interview the next day, was quickly eclipsed by the publication of a video from 2005 in which the Republican bragged about using his fame to prey on women.

An apology followed, but Mr Trump also insisted his comments were nothing more than “locker room talk”. He denied at the candidates’ second debate that he ever acted in the ways he discussed in the 2005 video.

Within days, several women had come forward to accuse Mr Trump of unwanted sexual advances and sexual assault. He responded by calling his accusers liars and, last Friday, suggested they were in some instances not physically attractive enough to merit his attention.

“His entire tack could not be better designed to drive away college-educated women,” said Mr Ayres, the GOP pollster.

Educated women living in suburbs have long been a key part of the GOP coalition, but polls indicate the revelations about Mr Trump’s behaviour have pushed them toward Clinton in the battleground states of Colorado and Virginia.

The events have also foiled Mr Trump’s late-in-the-campaign plan to re-ignite his hope of carrying Wisconsin. Mr Trump and Mr Pence were to campaign with House Speaker Paul Ryan in his home state a day after the 2005 video was made public. Mr Ryan withdrew his invitation to Mr Trump, and Mr Pence later cancelled.

Mr Trump can still count on carrying states across the West, the Great Plains and in the South, but Mr Ayers and other Republicans predict he may ultimately end up with fewer than 200 Electoral College votes.

Should the Republican fall short in Pennsylvania, he would need to post victories in both Florida and Ohio, as well as several other battlegrounds — North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada and New Hampshire among them — to reach 270.

But that’s only if he prevails in reliably Republican Arizona, Georgia and Utah.

In Utah, Mr Trump’s deep unpopularity among the large population of Mormon voters could lead to four candidates winning 10 per cent or more of the state’s vote. That kind of uncertainty opens the door to a win there for Mrs Clinton or for third-party candidates Mr Evan McMullin and Mr Gary Johnson.

In Arizona, won by the Republican nominee in all but one election since 1952, Mr Trump’s characterisation of some Hispanic immigrants as criminals has turned off many in the state’s growing and Democratic-leaning Hispanic community.

GOP nominees have carried Georgia in seven of the last eight presidential elections. But about a quarter of the state’s voters are African American, a reliably Democratic-voting bloc. Like Virginia, Georgia is also home to well-educated young professionals more likely to favour Mrs Clinton, said Mr Chris Jankowski, a Virginia-based national GOP consultant.

“With Trump bleeding out, he could find himself competing to win the white vote in Georgia,” Mr Jankowski said. “That’s when you know it’s over.” AP

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