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US’ Asian ‘pivot’ may be fatally undermined

United States President Barack Obama’s hesitations, ambivalence, U-turns, and political gamesmanship with the US Congress over punishing Syria for its use of chemical weapons has achieved only two things with certainty: It has raised Russia’s diplomatic profile for the first time in many years, and it has spooked those of America’s allies – from Saudi Arabia and Israel to Japan and South Korea – that rely heavily on US promises.

United States President Barack Obama’s hesitations, ambivalence, U-turns, and political gamesmanship with the US Congress over punishing Syria for its use of chemical weapons has achieved only two things with certainty: It has raised Russia’s diplomatic profile for the first time in many years, and it has spooked those of America’s allies – from Saudi Arabia and Israel to Japan and South Korea – that rely heavily on US promises.

To minimise the impact of both consequences, the United States now must enforce with utmost determination its agreement with Russia on eliminating Syria’s chemical weapons. But will it do so?

US Secretary of State John Kerry’s heat-of-the-moment comment that a military strike on Syria could be avoided if all chemical weapons were turned over was a diplomatic gift to Russia, and it responded with alacrity. Not usually noted for its diplomatic dexterity, the Kremlin quickly proposed compelling Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), and to place its chemical-weapons stockpile under United Nations control.

Putin’s initiative turned out to be a diplomatic lifeline, as Obama’s gambit of seeking Congressional approval for an attack on Syria looked certain to fail, which would have dented his authority as America’s commander-in-chief.

Although the agreement may yet strip Assad’s regime of some of its most dangerous weapons, the process – if it can be called that – which brought it about has strengthened a global perception that US foreign policy in Obama’s second term is either adrift or drifting into isolationism.

LACKING CONVICTION AND DIRECTION

The US response to the so-called “Arab Spring,” for example, has lacked political conviction, much less strategic direction. Egypt’s old-new military rulers, for example, have concluded that American criticism can be ignored, because America cannot cut off its aid to Egypt for geopolitical reasons.

When I met with Egypt’s foreign minister, Nabil Fahmy, in August, he hinted at the new regime’s dissatisfaction with attempts by the European Union and the US to influence his country’s domestic affairs. Egypt, he said, understood the importance of democracy and human rights, but avoiding turmoil must be the government’s highest priority.

Of course, appeals to “stability” are nothing new from authoritarian governments. As Pakistan’s then-president, Pervez Musharraf, dismissively put it when I visited Islamabad as Japan’s defense minister, “Democracy? I know all about that.”

The US, of course, claims that it, too, knows all about democracy. But its diplomatic cognitive dissonance – criticizing the Egyptian regime while continuing to supply it with military hardware – can serve only to undermine bilateral relations, just as the same American approach to Musharraf’s regime thoroughly eroded US-Pakistani ties.

THE FEAR IN ASIA

Moreover, the consequences of such foreign-policy waffling extend far beyond the Middle East. In November 2009, when Obama visited Japan for the first time as President, he emphasised that he was from Hawaii and proud to be “Americans’ first Pacific president.” Two years later, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton published “America’s Pacific Century,” indicating a shift in America’s global strategy.

This declaration of a “return to Asia” marked the start of the famous “pivot” to the Pacific in US foreign policy – a shift away from the Middle East that was intended to meet the challenges posed by China’s growing geopolitical ambitions. All of Asia’s democracies (and a few of its autocracies, particularly Vietnam) welcomed it.

But, though rhetoric matters in diplomacy, the pivot will be fatally undermined if Asians perceive the same sort of gap between America’s words and its actions that has become apparent in its Middle East policy (despite Kerry’s determined efforts to revitalize peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority).

In particular, there is a gnawing fear that the US may yet choose the “G-2” option: A grand bargain with China for the two countries to decide Asia’s fate by themselves and over our heads. Given the size and clout of countries like India, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea, such a condominium is, no doubt, doomed to failure. So, as tempting as such a relationship may be, the US ought to resist it.

JAPAN TAKES THE INITIATIVE

Meanwhile, in Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has begun a national discussion concerning how the country can take greater responsibility for its own defence.

His government continues to place great faith in the Japan-US alliance as the bedrock of Japanese (and Asian) security. But Abe’s government also recognises that the world’s geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, and that many in the US are tempted by the siren song of isolationism. So Abe feels obliged to put Japan in a position to be able to help Asia’s democracies manage any crisis that may emerge in the event of a change in America’s regional presence.

In the coming days, Japan will welcome Caroline Kennedy, the daughter of President John F. Kennedy and the likely new US ambassador. She will find a Japan renewing itself and its commitment to Asia’s freedoms. May that example, similar to her father’s appeal 53 years ago for the defense of freedom, also call forth the best in the American spirit. PROJECT SYNDICATE

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Yuriko Koike, Japan’s former defense minister and national security adviser, was Chairwoman of Japan’s Liberal Democrat Party and currently is a member of the National Diet.

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