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All eyes on regional security at Shangri-La dialogue

As the Shangri-la Dialogue kicks off this weekend, the latest situation in the South China Sea will loom large over the discussions among the security officials who gather yearly in Singapore for this defence forum.

A satellite image showing dredgers working at the northern-most reclamation site of Mischief Reef in the South China Sea in March. For Beijing, the claims are not about resources, but security and its historical view that this was a Chinese sea. Photo: CSIS’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative via The New York Times

A satellite image showing dredgers working at the northern-most reclamation site of Mischief Reef in the South China Sea in March. For Beijing, the claims are not about resources, but security and its historical view that this was a Chinese sea. Photo: CSIS’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative via The New York Times

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As the Shangri-la Dialogue kicks off this weekend, the latest situation in the South China Sea will loom large over the discussions among the security officials who gather yearly in Singapore for this defence forum.

The United States and China have engaged in a war of words this week, and Beijing’s building of artificial islands in the disputed waters has become the focus. On Wednesday, US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter called for an immediate halt to the reclamation, and he responded forcefully to China’s challenge of its surveillance flights over the disputed seas.

“There should be no mistake: The United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world.” Not surprisingly, as Mr Carter made his way to Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue, China fired back, saying that no outside actors had the right to dictate to China in an area it claims as its sovereign territory.

Many observers may recall the mid-air collision 14 years ago near Hainan Island involving a United States Navy signals intelligence aircraft and a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) interceptor fighter. The US reconnaissance plane was peeking at China without entering Chinese air space, but the Chinese did not welcome it.

The incident last week between the US P8-A Poseidon reconnaissance plane and Chinese navy warning to it as it swooped over the island features that China were building is the latest and will not be the last.

COOLING TENSIONS

Essentially, one can put these developments down to the discomfort generated when a supposedly declining global power continues to want to assert its influence and reach globally, and a rising global power that repudiates the old hegemon tried to cut back that influence.

How the tussle between China and the US in the South China Sea play out will affect everyone in the region and possibly would have global consequences as well.

Both the US and China have vowed not to start a war in this region. In its defence policy White Paper released this week, China has said it would not be the first to use force.

This can be considered a concession to the long-standing insistence by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)’s that force not be used to settle disputes in the region.

But Beijing’s declaration has not been backed up by a halt to land reclamation around rock features.

Policy makers at the Shangri-la Dialogue should contemplate the worst-case scenario of an accidental war in the South China Sea and how best to prevent any untoward incident from escalating into armed conflict.

Clearly, there is a need for cool heads to prevail and useful suggestions on ways to reduce tension.

Is it possible for example for some form of agreement to be reached on reconnaissance by any party in the disputed waters?

Can ASEAN’s principle of non-use of force (not just non-first-use) be brought to the core henceforth of all efforts to reduce tensions and solve disputes?

Is it feasible to allow a group of neutral, non-claimant countries or multilateral bodies such as the United Nations to take the lead in exploring ways to prevent conflicts and resolve the disputes, including codifying rules of conduct in South China Sea?

What other mechanisms can be institutionalised in the interim to prevent conflicts while ASEAN and China continue to work towards a bidding Code of Conduct in the South China Sea?

These are questions that the region can explore in finding a way to cool tensions and manage the dispute.

Presently, China’s massive reclamation works and claim of control of air space around the new islands are not being accepted or recognised by anybody except Beijing.

In fact, all claimants have repudiated claims by others and consider their own claims indisputable. Nationalism is clearly at play here and the countries involved are understandably unlikely to back down.

But if all the parties involved stick to their positions, it will be impossible for any necessary compromise to be made.

There will never be any winners in any war. This is why dialogues to find mechanisms to prevent war are always useful. Regional governments, especially the claimants, owe it to their people to overcome the fences of nationalism and history, and seek a way forward. A proverb of this region says that history is important; if one does not know history, one is blind in one eye. But if one is completely guided by history in one’s action, then one is blind in both eyes.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

David Koh is a security analyst with over two decades of experience.

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