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ASEAN weathering storms, making progress

When Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders gathered last week in Myanmar, the predicted weather was for high temperatures combined with a chance of storms. The political atmosphere proved similar, with lightning-rod issues converging on the regional group’s first summit of the year.

ASEAN leaders pose for pictures during the opening ceremony of the 24th ASEAN Summit in Naypyidaw, May 11, 2014. Photo: Reuters

ASEAN leaders pose for pictures during the opening ceremony of the 24th ASEAN Summit in Naypyidaw, May 11, 2014. Photo: Reuters

When Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders gathered last week in Myanmar, the predicted weather was for high temperatures combined with a chance of storms. The political atmosphere proved similar, with lightning-rod issues converging on the regional group’s first summit of the year.

Disputes over the South China Sea demanded attention, with strained relations between China and some ASEAN members coming to boil over new developments. Only days before the summit, Vietnam and China traded accusations over the ramming of ships as Beijing put in place a rig in the contested waters to begin drilling for oil. The Philippines, too, arrested 11 Chinese nationals for illegal fishing, even while China continues to demand their release.

Other ASEAN members face domestic problems, most visibly Thailand. The country was represented only by caretaker Deputy Premier Phongthep Thepkanjana, following the constitutional court’s decision last week to remove Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and nine other ministers on charges of abuse of power.

 

ACHIEVING MODEST GOALS

 

What can ASEAN do in disputes involving China? In the face of domestic problems suffered by some members, can ASEAN progress to be a community? How could Myanmar, chairing the group for the first time, cope?

Regarding the South China Sea, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung aired the accusation that China had committed dangerous and serious violations. Manila also issued complaints about Beijing. No one contradicted these voices, but without China present, the group fairly declined to judge the issue.

Realistically, the summit never expected to. The much more modest aim was to avoid a disaster akin to events two years ago when the former chair Cambodia appeared to favour China and brought the group to an impasse. This was not to be taken for granted.

After all, Myanmar is not only chairing for the first time, but also maintains a close relationship with China. Even while the country has opened to others, including the United States, the Chinese presence is strong in the economy and a permanent fact because of their long, shared border.

Against this background, it is to the positive that, rather than a deafening silence, a statement was agreed on that highlighted serious concerns in the South China Sea and called for restraint. However, this did not take sides. After all, some ASEAN claimants had previously taken their own steps to begin resource exploration.

In this context, ASEAN and its current chair have done the right, if discrete, thing to address the issue while maintaining neutrality and an even-handed leadership.

 

PRESERVING CREDIBILITY

 

Fairness and discretion were also issues in approaching the situation in Thailand. In the past, such an issue would usually have passed without comment under the principle of non-interference, as a matter of domestic politics. However, as ASEAN moves towards a community, there is a greater need for such issues to be addressed.

Yet, while Cambodian Premier Hun Sen had proposed a statement by the leaders, only the ASEAN foreign ministers did so. This, moreover, was non-partisan in expressing full support for dialogue, democratic principles and the rule of law in dealing with the challenges in Thailand.

Again, this was something of a challenge for the group, especially given that the Hun Sen government had previously sided with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and is itself facing similar street protests that challenge its legitimacy. Again, a middle path seems to have prevailed, with ASEAN neither falling into silence nor allowing any one side to capture the regional voice.

This may not seem like much. But on such issues, even the great powers cannot command outcomes. Indeed, although US President Barack Obama recently came through the region to give security assurances, these have not prevented the recent maritime contentions.

In this context, some may reckon that a group of merely middle-to-smaller countries is wise to preserve its role and credibility, even at the cost of curbing ambition. ASEAN is weathering, rather than seeking to control, these storms.

For some ambition, look instead to the group’s own agenda. The summit focused on the timely realisation of the ASEAN Community by next year and strengthening the group’s institutions and decision-making processes. Behind this technical and bureaucratic language was an effort to position the group to be more unified and decisive in future.

While not grabbing the headlines, the group also considered ways to move ahead with negotiations with China on a number of issues. This is not only about the Code of Conduct concerning behaviour at sea, but also about broader and deeper economic cooperation. Progress on the group’s Economic Community is also key to its continued competitiveness and relevance to the region in business and in politics.

There are items on the agenda on which ASEAN can and should manage to progress. There are controversies and storms beyond control that must simply be weathered. The wisdom of this summit, hosted for the first time by Myanmar, was that it to tried to judge, and not without basis, which was which.

 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Simon Tay is chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and also teaches international law at the National University of Singapore.

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